Where will our next shooting war be?

[Ian David]

Inspired by this thread:

BUSH TO CONSIDER ASKING U.N. FOR QUARANTINE OF NORTH KOREA
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=3538559#3538667

By this I mean: Who will be the next target of overt and declared military action by Bush. Secretive shadow-ops don't count.

[mikelewis]

1. They want to Quarantine Southeast Asia to contain the Bird Flu

It has nothing to do with war, it's a medical quarantine to prevent the spread of the Bird Flu.

Bush Authorizes Use of Quarantine Powers in Cases of Bird Flu
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F40A14FA3A5B0C718CDDAD0894DD404482

Odds are, there won't be any more "New Wars". While it's not inconcievable the Administration may try to push us into another war, it would be very difficult for them to do it. I don't believe it will happen any time soon but I also wouldn't put any money down on it either.

[oblivious]

2. They seem to have a hate on for the UN.

[ragin_acadian]

3. i voted cuba.

but it's difficult to say, though. they didn't have quite enough wool with iran or syria, and they aren't doing too well with recruitments, and the stop loss orders might get some traction with the sheeple if they don't do something drastic.

my guess is, the neocons will probably just plan and execute another terror attack, then have a draft.

having said that, maybe you could edit your poll to include 'all of the above'

[libhill]

4. I can tell you this

It won't be N. Korea. We only pick on small defenseless countries. N. Korea would give us a fight, as they did in '50-'53. And China might get into it. I suspect even Iran is too tough a nut to crack, with our troops stretched to the max.

[bobthedrummer]

5. Syria/Lebanon before Iran.

Sooner rather than later too. PNAC.

[PurityOfEssence]

7. Uh-yup

Oil, schmoil; it's the PNAC's game, and that game is to make the world dance to our tune and to secure Israel. I'm sure the IDF has maps in hand as we speak.

[Rockholm]

6. I fear it will be here in the USA.

With the talibornagains and those that stir them up. Look, judges are getting killed. It is only a matter of time before the next Eric Rudolph or Timothy McVeigh unleases his version of hate.

[robcon]

8. Taiwan

I think Taiwan will declare (or come close to declaring) independence from China, and we will aid the Taiwanese against the Chinese.

[leftofthedial]

9. The Midwest

[ThorsHammer]

10. Iran, but China scares me the most

Their booming economy has allowed them to modernize their military, which would make them unbeatable given their enormous population advantage. Our military is already stretched paper-thin, and we don't really have any strong allies left (thanks W :sarcasm:). I don't think we will be fighting them anytime soon, but they are the one country that I am terrified of. If we end up in Iran and stretch our military more, China will be able to take Taiwan in about 25 minutes.

[Ian David]

11. Flawed logic: Assuming Bush actually wants to win the next war

Begin with the following assumption: Bush believes he is The Antichrist and has no intention of "winning" any wars. His sole intention is to trigger The War of the Apocalypse to usher in The End Times of the Book of Revelations.

Now, take a close look at every policy decision Bush has made-- political, military, environmental.

Ask yourself, how well does his behavior fit with the assumption that Bush believes he is The Antichrist? And based on this, what do you predict he will do next?

[ThorsHammer]

12. Good points

I don't know if I'd go as far as to think of him as the Antichrist, but things are looking bleak now. Iraq is a quagmire, Iran is on the back burner, N. Korea already has nuclear weapons, and China is adding modernization to their already large manpower advantage. Any future war would likely be catastrophic, although I hope we don't go that far.

[Ian David]

13. I'm not saying Bush IS the Antichrist- Bush THINKS he is The Antichrist

Whether God, Satan or Jesus actually exist is moot.

If you throw yourself off The Empire State Building, it makes no difference if you believe that gravity will kill you or that invisible pixies in the air will kill you. You'll still be smashed flat.

The path Bush is following would destroy us just as surely without divine intervention as with it.

[LdyGuique]

14. We already have an underreported shooting war going on in the U.S.

and it's called "street gangs." And, while many of our cities are infamous for these gangs, they are literally spread throughout the country. There is no way to get accurate current information as the problem has gone through explosive growth during the past 10 years. It's not just an illegal alien issue, although gangs such as MS-13 and 18th Street are well-known, there are still active Bloods and Crips and several thousand other gangs.

Unfortunately, this is quoted in other articles, but I cannot reach the Newsweek archives as I don't buy a subscription.

According to Newsweek, March 28, 2005, over 10,000 MS-13 gang members illegally crossed our borders looking for a better life, too. Now operating in 33 states, ‘The Most Dangerous Gang in America’ illustrates how illegal aliens cross our borders looking for a better life while they make ours a living nightmare.

How many imported criminals from around the world? Newsweek reported 700,000 gang members operate in America. The MS-13 gangs are considered the fastest growing and most violent. It’s called Third World Momentum.

A link to sign up for a seminar included:

Experts estimate that there are over 1000 criminal street gangs operating in Florida. This program will provide a broad stroke perspective on these gangs with focus on their operational activities, types crimes, and ethnic composition. While no program can provide a detailed description of every gang operating within every Florida location, it will provide a framework for class attendees to identify gangs in their area and then once identified how police and community leaders might deal with the problems the organizations present within their jurisdiction. Topics to be covered include: (1) gang activity from a national and State of Florida perspective; (2) identification of gangs from a general perspective; (3) gang members and their associates; (4)criminal activities utilized by gangs to fund their operations; (5) major national gangs operating in Florida; (6) prison gangs; (7) gang alliances and rivalries; (8) gang graffiti; and (9) gang tattoos.

Source: CRIMINAL STREET GANGS: IDENTIFICATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON FLORIDA -- December 2004

Los Angeles is home to 800 known gangs and more than 56,000 gang members,according to the LAPD. (2004)

Los Angeles is in terrible shape — again. The city's street gangs, which had been relatively quiet since the crack-cocaine epidemic of the late '80s and early '90s burned itself out, are back with a vengeance. After falling steadily from 1996 to '99, gang murders in the city increased 143% last year; 331 people died because of gang violence, in contrast to 136 in 1999. The violence got worse during the first half of this year, with a 23% increase in murders. Even as gang-related property crimes decrease — robbery is down 8.8%, carjacking is down 28% — other violent crimes are up. Felony assault by gangsters is up 9.7%, attacks on police officers are up 35.5%, witness intimidation is up 50%. In other words, there is less drug dealing and theft, more violence for the sake of violence. "It's a disturbing trend, and there's nothing I am going to be spending more time on," says Hahn, who has discussed the problem with President Bush.

Time followed one gang, the Playboys, off and on for three months. The Playboys, with several hundred members, are just one of 1,300 such groups in L.A., all of them stuck in a deadly spiral of violence that the justice system has not broken, though it has put tens of thousands of gangsters behind bars. Five members of the Playboys were shot dead in the past year — most of them in senseless turf battles with nearby rivals.

Criminologists point to two reasons for the city's upsurge in violence. First, veteran gang members jailed a decade ago during the crack epidemic are getting out of prison — and returning to reinfect their neighborhood with violent habits hardened and reinforced in prison. "The next generation of gang homicides is going to have a different construct ," says Jack Riley, director of the criminal-justice program at Rand Corp. His research points to returning felons as a major reason for the spike in shootings across Los Angeles. "Locals in South Central and East L.A. think it is people returning from prison and trying to re-establish their authority," he says. There are 100,000 gang members in jail in California, and they are getting out at a rate of about 3,000 a month, according to the state's department of corrections. This year alone will see more than 30,000 veteran gang members back on the streets. Social workers call them "spoons" — people who get out of jail and stir things up.

Time -- 2001
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