Betting on a Kucinich presidency before 2021

[eridani]

Not me--someone on the Kucinich forum--

I've proposed a claim at ideosphere on the probability Dennis will become president by 2021. I set that date because I think with some of the advances in medicine emerging (and the fact Dennis takes really good care of himself), that he could possibly become president at an older age than Reagan did.

http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=kuc21

I also think this will be an especially interesting historical document-because we can see how key events affect the perception of Dennis's chances of assuming the presidency. I fully expect this thing to start out trading rather low-on the order of 10-12%. What I think a lot of folks miss is Dennis's potential for political longevity. Dennis has enough loyal supporters that he can take a really long run strategy some folks just can't.

I think there is room for a series of claims here:
1) Dennis assumes higher office(Senator, governor, cabinet, VP). I put
the chances of that rather high right now.

2) We could construct claims that would show a higher office-or which higher office would affect his chances of getting elected.

3) We can also show how various plausible events affect the chance of Dennis becoming president.

[queeg]

1. NO

not gonna happen

[caledesi]

5. Agree. I like Dennis, but he will never be elected. nt

[leftofthedial]

2. He's my favorite out there

he understands that the overarching issue of our times is the class war being waged on the middle and working classes by the wealthy and the corporations. He's the only one clearly addressing all the ancillary issues in that context.

Alas! I think the odds are roughly the same as me having sex with Drew Barrymore before sunrise.

[rhite5]

3. I am afraid you don't understand .....

The corporate neocons that want to run the world will not let go. They do not run the entire world yet, however.

In our country, until the people can get control of the election process, the neocons will select the presidents.

They might let a Democrat become president, just for appearance sake, but it would have to be a Democratic patsy willing to play along. Dennis is nobody's patsy!

Anyway, I have a feeling we have already had the Democrat patsy stage with Clinton (sorry to say).

I do not expect another presidential election until the government is brought down. That could come through international financial failure or some other form of self-destruction. Or it could come with WorldWar III.

I am over 70 years old and I have seen a lot. All that political history has begun to fall into place. The patterns are there.

I am also a very strong Kucinich supporter because of his clear understanding of the issues and his willingness to keep solutions in perspective and keep plugging for the right solutions. His voice is necessary in Congress. Thank god he could still get elected.

[eridani]

4. Interesting site, no?

People actually do trading of these bets.

[NoPasaran]

6. I think I'll put my money into something with a higher rate of return

Like lotto tickets.

[LittleClarkie]

16. Is he not "electable" enough?

Some folks get upset at the suggestion that Kerry was "electable" and that this was a bogus arguement, and yet it has been pointed out to me that this same rationale was used toward Dennis fans during the primaries.

Was that rationale used by the same folks who now bristle at the old suggestion that Kerry was more electable than, say, Dean?

[NoPasaran]

19. I don't see that we need to make this a Kerry vs. Dean fight

This thread is about the unlikely possibility that advances in science could keep DK going until some point in the future when the country would be gullible enough to swallow his sugar-coasted plans for an Orwellian dystopia.

[DerekG]

7. Kucinich will have no chance until the empire collapses

His vision contrasts not only with the neocons, but with the militarist liberals--whose antecedents created the national security apparatus.

There is no doubt in my mind Kucinich will be the *future* leader of the progressive movement; alas, if he had any prospects for winning now, he'd share the same fate of Rev. King and RFK.

[MoJoWorkin]

8. He is a political opportunist like all the others.

He was against a woman's right to choose until it behooved him to be otherwise. Why do all the Kucinich lovers overlook his flaws but wouldn't see that there was A BIG DIFFERENCE between Gore and Bush?
That is all I am saying. He is NOT perfect, either, but of course would be 100% better than what we have. It just gripes me that the Dennis followers cannot bring themselves to see any flaws in him, or Nader before him. They helped bring about this madness, by not voting or helping Gore.

Sorry, but I just had to rant.

[DerekG]

9. Yes, the one unpardonable sin for polite liberals...

Rep. Kucinich is indeed evasive whenever the subject of abortion is raised by interviewers. Yet while this may be indicative of political opportunism on his part, there is also the possibility that his apprehension is genuine--apropos, really, considering his stances on militarism, the welfare state and the death penalty.

Kucinich is pro-life in every sense: supporting Roe v. Wade may very well be a concession he is none too comfortable with. I can assure you, he's not alone.

[MollyStark]

10. Yes all the catholic men are concerned with women being baby machines

Push it far enough and women will not be voting for democrats anymore.

[The Blue Knight]

11. I'm a big Dennis-fan. But; it's not going to happen.

Ever.

[LittleClarkie]

15. Not all women are staunchly pro-choice

You're statement makes it sound like we are a very solid voting block just by virtue of our sex. I don't think that is true.

Some women might leave at the mere suggestion that we reframe the issue and explain that we are not pro-abortion.

Some women might leave if we run a pro-life Dem, though I'm kinda diggin' the most prominent pro-life Dem we have out there at the moment, Sen. Reid.

It rather depends on how activist those pro-lifers are, and if they're after Roe v Wade.

I'm not a one issue voter. They annoy me on the other side, and no less so when they are on my side. Candidates have to be taken as a whole.

[eridani]

13. Well, excuuuuse me!

Kucinich worked very hard in his district for Gore in 2000. In 2004, he convinced quite a few former Nader supporters that working within the Democratic party was a better option. At least half have stayed with the Dems instead of going back to the Greens. I decided to stay because the Dems have PCOs and the Greens don't.

[Debs]

18. I've never met the man who is perfect

I also am not a big fan of the cult of personality. I am not looking for perfection, nor someone I agree with 100% of the time, only the guy who most speaks to the issues and values I that I feel are important. Having said all that abortion is a tough issue. I can see someone starting on either side and going to the other side. It isn't necessarily political opportunism. If someone became convinced that after all it IS the taking of a separate life they might go from pro choice to anti choice. If someone decided hey whatever MY personal beliefs are do I really have the right to demand others see it my way might go the other direction. Perhaps it was political opportunism. Certainly he doesn't seem a political opportunist considering all the unpopular stands he takes.

[bobthedrummer]

12. I voted for Dennis Kucinich in the Wisconsin primary. I'm an independent

voter. I don't think DK will be POTUS, but I'd love to see him in a Democratic administration. He comes "with no strings attached". He is progressive. That's 2 reasons why he won't be POTUS.

[fujiyama]

14. I don't see him

getting elected to any higher office - that means even a statewide office in the near future.

I would like to be proven wrong, but OH is a relatively conservative state. The odds of him becoming president are next to nil.

I could see him possibly getting appointed to a cabinet position. He'd be a great choice.

[jfern]

17. He's too good

to ever be elected President of the US. Maybe he could run for President of Canada or something.