Jeb's Political Calculus

[ewagner]

he's balancing the equations to determine:

Will defiance of the courts and taking custody of Terri by force =

political shame and ruin?

or

propel him to nomination and election to the Presidency?

It's all being calculated

[kentuck]

1. I think he's doing just enough to keep from being blamed

for not doing enough...so he keeps his political viability. He can say he did all he could do. I doubt that he will take it much further. I could be wrong. :)

[ewagner]

7. Yes...true...but....

hasn't he raised EXPECTATIONS on the part of his followers too high already?

they expect him to "save the day" don't they?

[kentuck]

9. The worst he could have done was to do nothing...

in the eyes of his supporters. He has done more than Dubya and I think the "base" will thank him for that if he asks for their support.

[Demit]

10. I'm with you. He's aiming for "tragic hero"

I can see the photo now: His gaze is intense, as he looks out the window into some unknown future. It is a dramatic, yet poignant, moment. Sigh. He did his best.

[ewagner]

14. I'm impressed

you should be doing movies...or TV drama.....that's just good....

[LiberalinNC]

2. Jeb has NO respect for our Judicial branch of Government

It's Political Suicide to force custody!!

[blackcat77]

3. Shame and Ruin

You don't go against the expressed will of both the legislative and the judiciary branches at both the state and federal levels. That's the stuff of dictators.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. At this point I wonder if there is any calculus left

thsi whole mess has been hijacked by a vocal group of dominionists and he has encouraged them. He may have caused a sitution where he will release a shit storm he will not be able to control

[ewagner]

6. Good point.....

What the nut cases do becasuse he has given them "hope" remains to be seen....

[Discord]

5. I hope they use the same calculator

they used before making this a national case in the first place.

[madison2000]

8. I think its a huge mistake to think you can gain political advantage

from a situation like this. People do not relate to it primarily as liberal or conservative but on a much more personal level. I don't think its easy to predict where the conservative base will stand on this so - he is taking a huge risk if he keeps pushing this.

[Corey_Baker08]

11. This Will Propel Jeb Either Way It Goes Down:

This is what he has been waiting on for a long time. His fifteen minutes of Nationality and fame. He has been sidecasted in the shadow by big brother for way to long now.

Since most Republicans are for reinserting the feeding tube Jeb is playing the part of Superhero that will do all that he can to "Protect Life and Liberty" at any cost. If the tube is not reinserted Jeb will down play it as he gave all that he could until the very last second; If it is reinserted Jeb will make claim that under his watch "Liberty and Life prevailed in the case of good Vs. Evil"

Either way this is the Nationality Jeb has been looking for to Launch his Political Ambitions.

[kentuck]

12. I think you have accurately described the situation.

How old are you, again? :)

[Corey_Baker08]

15. LOL

15

[ewagner]

13. hmmm....interesting opinion

Could be right.

but do you think Jeb has raised expectations too far? Do the radicals now EXPECT HIM to rush in and physically take custody?

Will he be blamed or labeled a coward if he doesn't?

How will he avoid being labeled a coward? What excuse will he come up with?

(note: If I were in Jeb's shoes right now that's where I'd be concentrating my efforts: creating a fall guy as my reason for not acting)

[Corey_Baker08]

19. Image counts for everything

I Don't Think Jeb will be labeled as a coward for this action. He'll be labeled as a hero for once again contributing to the "Moral values of Life and Liberty."

I beleive this is a win win situation for Jeb. People dont expect him to go rushing in and take physical custody of her because he will potray himself as the "Normal Guy" Hes painting his image as the guy that will do anything to see a life saved.If he ends up losing he will not be looked down to because he "gave it his all to the fullest extent of the law"

However if the tube is reinserted the "Normal Guy" image will be wiped away with the "National Hero born to protect and serve image."

Image counts for everything and this is definately a Plus for ol' Jebby

[katinmn]

16. sooner or later he's going to have to address the hoards

Apparently he's getting calls from all over the country (according to Certainly Not News) from people demanding he go in and rescue Terri.

So, what's it gonna be, Jeb?

Haha. I love the fact that their pandering has backfired. LOL

[ewagner]

17. That's sort of

what I'm talking about....

has he "crossed the Rubicon?"

[mainer]

18. Jeb is a coward. Can't even do the brave thing!

At least, that's what the fundies are saying.

[Jack Rabbit]

20. As far as the nomination goes, this probably helps those not involved

First of all, just as it's too soon to be talking about who the Democrats are going to nominate, it is too soon to talk about who the GOP will nominate.

Jeb Bush is one of several possible GOP contenders in 2008. Another is Senator Frist. The list goes on.

Jeb and Doc Frist took the same basic position and it proved unpopular overall. Both said the government should get involved in what most people see as a private matter. Both take a stance that Terri needs to be "saved". Neither can claim an advantage over the other.

Since about three out of four Americans think that it is wrong for the government to involve themselves in this matter, it would seem that not being part of this fiasco is a good position.

An example of a possible GOP candidate who is helped by not being a part of this mess would be Condi Rice. If she's had anything to say about this, I've missed it. She has no reason to become involved with it. If she wants to be President, she'd be well advised to keep it that way.

[atommom]

21. The RW often deliberately picks unwinnable battles to rally its

constituents (and make them enraged at the poor moral fiber of the whole nation). But in this case, it might actually backfire, because this time the whole focus is on one, and only one, person. The fundies may well have been thrilled by the actions Congress and the Bush boys took, but since they can see that she could be physically picked up, taken away, and given life support back, they may be much more indignant at this failure than the usual, more "abstract" ones.

[ewagner]

22. Maybe this means

that there aren't as many members of the "moral majority" as we thought or that the media THINKS there are.

[Leilani]

23. Ding! Ding! Ding!

We have a winner!!!

Dems & media overplay the numbers of Fundies.

They're loud & have too much influence over the Repub party...especially in primaries, but they're fewer in number than many think.