2006 Senate races

[Tony_FLADEM]

Chafee is low in the polls and Pennsylvania is a state that leans Democratic. Casey will win because of his name.

Do you see any other seats we can win? I really want to win Olympia Snowe's seat in Maine. Do the Democrats have a good candidate?

What about the seat in Montana?


The only Democratic seat I see as vulnerable is Bill Nelson in Florida.


What do you think?

[dsc]

1. Nelson in NE is vulnerable

and Cantwell was polling low at some point last month. In Ohio, DeWine should be vulnerable.

[Frances]

4. Nelson needs to hammer Bush on Social Security

Nebraska is a state that needs social security

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. MN is open because Dayton isn't running.

We'll have to come up with somebody who can squish that cockroach Mark Kennedy, Norm Coleman's chosen butt-boy.

[Frances]

3. The Repubs will go after

Byrd in West Virginia (is turning Republican)
Dayton's seat in Minnesota (not running for reelection)
Sarbanes' seat in Maryland (not running for reelection)

But I hope we keep all 3 seats!

The Bushies will hammer on gay married terrorists and their success in the Middle East (as our esteemed MSM sees it anyway).

Our best bet is to focus on Social Security and the deficit and the fact that China holds so much of our debt.

[pstans]

5. Talent in MO

I have heared people say that James Talent, a Rethug, from Missouri could be defeated in 2006. I live in Iowa and am considering moving to Missouri and would love to volunteer to help Democrats regain power.

[liberalpragmatist]

9. Problem is MO Dem Party is VERY weak right now

Talent IS beatable but only if we recruit a top-tier challenger. Rural voters in Missouri have in the last few elections defected en masse to the GOP and we need to coax them back if we want to stay competitive in this state. It's not a Southern state (most of it anyway) and even now it's relatively close. But what was an even split between Dems and Repubs is now probably a 5+ advantage for the Republicans.

Last I heard, the top tier challengers, Lt. Gov Joe Maxwell and fmr. Gov. Roger Wilson both are leaning against running. And the national party doesn't seem to be bothering, focusing on other races.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. Look after Nelson (NE) and DeWine (OH) is very weak.

We could get Dewine's seat.

[loro mi dicevano]

7. Minnesota is SUPER vulnerable, unless we find a phenomenal candidate

within a few months - which isn't going to happen. I'm fully prepared to lose the seat (oh, god, I don't think I can HANDLE my state with Coleman, another Republican senator, and Pawlenty), although I'll work against it.

[CatholicEdHead]

10. Head over to the MN forum

there are lots of creditable candidates that are thinking for it. The frontrunners are Amy Klobuchar and Patty Wetterling.

Unlike the GOP we do not pre-appoint this early in the game. I expect some more firm announcements will be made later this spring with plenty of time to get counterpoints out.

The vast majority of regular people are still recovering from 2004 and 2006 is still a very long way away for any serious thinking.

[Ediacara]

8. Burns in MT is beatable

He's really not very popular, he's a senile old racist, and he sponsered the "Slaughter Wild Horses for French Restaurants" bill. Mike McGrath, the Dem state Attorney General will probably run against him, and I suspect he'll win. One wrinkle though, is the fact that Conrad Burns is about 300 years old. He may retire, and I'd bet on our lone congressman, Denny Rehberg, running for that seat. Against Rehberg, I'd put McGrath's odds at about 50-50. A lot of this Senate race lies in the hands of Gov Schweitzer and the Dem House and Senate. If they succeed in turning the state's economy around even slightly, and if the state GOP continues to act like whiney, bratty, voter-blaming losers, then the Dems will probably take this race.

[stevedeshazer]

12. Good to know, thanks

I always appreciate your insight into Montana politics. What the Dems have done there should be a model for changing western states from red to blue. It can be done.

[jab105]

11. Nelson in FL is vulnerable, and he's up for re-elect in 2006

n/t