I've fallen off the bandwagon

[SCantiGOP]

I went to the very first Dean meetup, and have been involved in volunteer activities and the opening of the Dean headquarters here in Columbia, SC. However, I think Iowa showed that, while Democrats were energized by Dean and liked what he had to say, when it came time to vote, they felt like he couldn't win. Hell, one poll of Iowa Democrats who intended to take part in the caucuses showed Dean with a 60% favorable rating but an incredible 30% unfavorable. If 1/3 of the hard core party faithful have a negative view of the guy, how is that going to translate to the general voting population? And the bizarre speech he gave after losing was downright scary. Several republicans in my office said they actually felt sorry for him.

Kerry, Clark and Edwards are all viable candidates. Edwards especially would annihilate bush in an open debate, while Kerry and Clark both have the credentials to destroy his phony "warrior against terror" image. We cannot afford 4 more years of this neo-con bullshit in Washington. Thanks for energizing the troops, Howard, but we need to win in November. Anybody but Bush !!

[Jack_Dawson]

1. It was Bizarre Behaviour

at best. That's been my problem with Howard all along...not his views so much but - he just doesn't wear well. And if he's this polarizing INSIDE HIS OWN PARTY, a G.E. would spell disaster.

[Nazgul35]

2. consider this...

first, those unfavorables were the product of non-stop attacks by Gephardt daily, and push polling over the phone....his unfavorables were high because someone made them high...

second, this was a caucus, not a primary....there's no more horse trading that benefited Kerry and Edwards...without the horse trading, the numbers would have been much closer....

Third, what lost it for us was the inexperience of our caucus captains...Kerry and Edwards had the state party apparatus who had done this before....amny of our guys just sat on their hands while the Kerry/Edwards folks waded in.....

The first two can be addressed in the future...but as of the third thing.....this needs to get fixed for the general election.....

All in all, the way the calendar shapes up, Dean can use his organization better than the other candidates....don't project one caucus onto the entire field....by your estimation, Clark is out of the running...and I don't think that is the case at all!!!

We have four candidates, all of whom are electable....it is silly to think that the large turnout won't be reproduced in November for anyone of these candidates...

[spooky3]

3. If Dean is not the nominee, I hope he will head HHS for the nominee.

[T Roosevelt]

4. I saw his speech

and I have to say that most of you are out of your minds. How dare a candidate exhibit any amount of emotion in this primary run.

It was particularly apparent when the Daily Show had Dean's rousing speech, followed by Kerry's somber (ie boring) "When I'm President" victory speech. I'll take Dean (and let's not forget Kucinich's, and to a lesser extent Edwards) emotion and passion over Kerry's valium approach to this election.

[WilliamPitt]

5. That cuts both ways

They only showed the one clip of Dean on the Daily Show, but they also only showed six words - six - from the Kerry speech. It was a damned good speech, just like Dean's was a damned good speech.

[Pale_Rider]

6. Dean scared the hell out of the media establishment ...

... since he had shown the anger and passion probably the most of us feel about the creeps in the Whitehouse.

[Individualist]

8. As has been said before,

anyone who isn't angry about what the little dictator is doing to our country isn't paying attention. Anger is a good thing!

[dreissig]

10. Creeps in the Media

Dean's campaign promises "broad spectrum" political reform. The people who will lose power have formed alliances against him. We were told Gore was a liar; now we are told Dean is a crazy man.

It's not surprising that Dean is facing as much resistance as he is. If a man is identified by his friends, he is also identified by his enemies. I wasn't impressed by Dean until the press started kicking him around. I can't be the only voter won over by negative tributes from people like Tim Russert.

[Guaranteed]

7. Forget ABB.

No one but Dean is going to be able to beat Bush. Everyone else (but Kucinich and Sharpton) have credibility problems. Kerry and Edwards voted for many of Bush's bills and are thus impotent, Clark was saying pro-war things (or wasn't anti-war enough), Lieberman may as well BE Bush.

You want to beat Bush? You do the RIGHT thing. We need a LEADER, who is going to give real opposition to this clown. Everyone else is going to look like a wimp.

If not Dean, though, go Clark. He has the second best credibility.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

9. Thank You for Keeping an Open Mind

And I'd also like to point out that Clark has the highest favorable-to-unfavorable differential among the Democrats. :-) He also will not be afraid to take it to Bush in a debate, and he will be able to pull the AWOL card very easily, while Edwards will have a much harder time of it since he did not serve.

DTH

[arcos]

43. Dean had the highest favorability too...

until the media decided to destroy him.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

44. If the Media Has Its Knives Out for You Already, Don't Hand Them a Gun

It seems very simple.

DTH

11. This stuff with Dean ...

makes me think of something I heard Mel Brooks say once. Brooks was one of the soldiers who went into Auschwitz at the end of WWII. He said that it completely marked him & that when he came back to America he thought for a long time about how to contend with someone like Hitler. He decided that the danger with attacking Hitler directly by getting up on a "soapbox" was that you would become a Hitler yourself (metaphorically of course) & as a result would fail. So Brooks decided that, for himself, he would ridicule Hitler in order to try to undermine Hitler's appeal. This is what led Brooks into comedy in the late 40s & he said that in some sense he had been planning to write "The Producers" from the beginning of his career.

I think Dean may have fallen into the trap of getting up on the soapbox against Bush in a particular way that makes him start to be a cheerleader, just as Bush was once....

I also think that Dean has opened himself up to ridicule.

I have been a Dean supporter & still am. However, American politics is a very interesting beast & I do think he might have made a misstep which is exacerbated by the fact that it was after "middle America" (even though Iowa Democrats are liberal) registered their impression of him. When this is coupled with Kerry finally catching fire (both in a personal sense and a political sense) the race could well radically shift in the coming days.

I think there are a lot of voters who 2 years ago thought Kerry was the best candidate on paper, but when he ran a somewhat lackluster campaign initially, they became interested in & supportive of Dean. Now that Kerry has energized himself both in the days preceding the caucuses and with the results of the caucus, I will not be at all surprised if there is a shift in allegiance.

[ArkDem]

24. Auschwitz was liberated by the Soviet Army.

http://fcit.coedu.usf.edu/holocaust/gallery/p538.htm

28. then Brooks shaded the truth

or my memory is incorrect about which camp he saw.
I just did a quick search on Google and it says that Brooks served in North Africa.
The point still stands however regarding the soapbox. (edit -- I was a debater once. I know all about the technique of switching the issue by addressing something that is tangential to the actual point being made. Seems to me that this is what you are doing here).
I know I heard an interview with Brooks where he said that his entry into comedy was a result of his witnessing actions of the Nazis.

[ArkDem]

32. No I was just pointing out that the Soviets liberated Poland.

Maybe Brooks was at the liberation of one or more of the camps in Germany.

34. got it

sorry if I misconstrued

[Leilani]

35. Very Thoughtful Post

So much of the time, perception becomes reality. I support Clark, but he is not a politician, & it shows on the stump. Kerry has been around a long time, & is better at handling the ups & downs of a campaign.

[Capn Sunshine]

12. You don't understand Iowa

neither did the Dean campaign. The caucus machinery is controlled by party insiders. Kerry does best with these folks.

The Dean campaign did not educate the participants of the caucus about the "horsetrading" aspect of the caucus, none of the Captains got the word, no one knew how to persuade other non viable delegates how to join them, it was a case of experience in the mechanics being the deciding factor. BIG edge to Kerry.

This wasn't a straight up vote, is was a herding contest. Dean people did not understand this.

Yet we finished third. A miracle considering the breakdown of command at the critical point.

[lancdem]

13. I think you can come up with a better explanation than that

The Dean campaign was in Iowa for months, and they didn't understand how the caucus worked? That doesn't say much for their competence, does it? I thought they were supposed to be so savvy and on the ball.

[Leilani]

36. For months?

He's been campaigning for 2 years.

[Capn Sunshine]

48. I don't know if you understand this

the organization has some talent all right, but down at the local street level, it's just plain everyday folks.

The general can draw up a genius battle plan, but he depends on his Captains to carry it out. All he can do is ask: are you clear on this?

Well, to continue this metaphor, he asked, they answered in the affirmative, but come to find out, they weren't clear on this after all.

[beaconess]

15. I think you're right

Several people who were in Iowa told me that the Dean forces did little or nothing to reach out to the supporters of other campaigns, but instead just wrote them off once they realized they weren't Dean supporters and, in many instances, ended up really pissing them off. Given what we've seen right here, that sounds completely consistent.

This came back to haunt them during the caucuses when they weren't able to sway voters to switch, something that other campaigns were able to do because of the relationships they had developed with voters outside their own circle.

[paulk]

25. in line with that

I was watching the "imbed" CNN reporter for the Dean campaign yesterday, and he mentioned that the Dean campaign itself had asked it's supporters not to be so overzealous in their attempts to convert because they were turning people off.

When Dean supporters on this board bragged about the 3,000 people they would have on the ground in Iowa I thought it could actually turn out to be a liability, in light of what's gone on here at DU these last few months.

I think I was right.

[TreasonousBastard]

26. And in line with that...

one problem could have been "evangelists" preaching in your face and turning people off, but one of the talking heads (don't remember which one) mentioned that Dean himself hadn't spent all that much time kissing babies and shaking hands. Left too much up to his staffers.

The other guys were out there visiting VFW halls, bingo parlors, Dairy Queens, basketball games... and hanging out with the voters.

Even in this electronic age, personal contact means a lot. Some people have no idea how much "I met <...> last night, and he seems like a decent guy." means over the water cooler or lunch the next day.

[Wapsie B]

42. Yup.

The local newspaper did a continuing story on where the candidates were in the area up to the time of the caucas. It showed Kerry and Edwards going bowling, to rub elbows with the common man. May sound trivial on the surface, but I've got to tell you that's what Edward's people were talking about in our meeting place. That Kerry and Dean can relate to the common man.

[beaconess]

29. For example

just last week, a defecting Dean supporter was told by a "You've already been replaced. Like the Hydra, when one fair-weather supporter falls off, six more take it's place," an attitude that has been all too typical here. If Dean canvassers in Iowa evidence the same attitude, it's no wonder they weren't able to shore up support or have much success drawing people back into their fold.

[Renew Deal]

17. Dean got smoked

It's not like it was close. Dean wasn't even viable in some locations. People showed up for other candidates. Your argument would make sense if it was close, but it wasn't.

[sandnsea]

18. Trippi has done several Presidential campaigns

He most certainly knows how it works. He's the master of stealing those JJ Dinner tickets years ago. Besides, if Dean had the most numbers, no horsetrading would have been needed. He still should have won. And it's telling that Kucinich chose to team up with Edwards. He could have just as easily teamed up with Dean, he didn't. Hmmmm.

[Ficus]

19. With the amount of organization and money

and TV ads Dean had, only pulling 18% is a disgrace, wether voting or "herding" as you call it.

Dean's Iowa team was headed by Jeani Murray - former head of the Iowa Democratic Party. If she doesn't know what the caucuses are all about he made a piss poor choice.

[The Magistrate]

23. What Could Be Worse, Captain

Than a breakdown of command at the critical point?

That is where competent command must function at its best, always. Incompetenceis no excuse, but is instead an abomination, worse than any other conceivable failing in a serious business.

[Julien Sorel]

30. Gee, Tom Harkin, Bill Bradley, and Al Gore endorsed and advised him,

and the former head of the Iowa Democratic Party was his state campaign chair. But he didn't know how to run a campaign in Iowa?????? With the Harkin state machine behind him? Then he is simply the most tin-eared and arrogant person ever to run for political office. With all the support he had there, he should have crushed the field -- he should have blown Kerry's numbers away.

[The Magistrate]

31. Indeed He Should Have, Mr. Bunter, At Least By His Own Hype

Except that the overwhelming proportion of Iowa's Democrats who appeared thought he would be the easiest candidate for the criminals of the '00 Coup to defeat in the fall, and they wanted a man who can win!

[iowapeacechief]

50. The so-called "Harkin machine" DID work...

...for all the campaigns. Harkin himself talked sincerely about liking all the candidates and having a hard time choosing. When he did endorse Dean, he made clear that his message and example were addressed to the undecided. Harkin is a much loved leader of Iowa Democrats, but his "machine" is not deliverable to any candidate for a primary contest.

Looks like Dean forces overestimated the practical value of the endorsements they collected.

[Castilleja]

39. Thanks for that perspective on the caucus, Capn Sunshine

I don't quite understand how it works, so it seems odd to me. But the more I read about Iowa's results, what you say here makes sense.

[bobbieinok]

45. I don't know what you mean by 'party insiders'

If you mean people who have been to a caucus before.....they know how it works AND that there will be wheeling and dealing.

My son went to caucus as a voter for the first time, and he had attended at least once in hi school as an observer.

He planned to vote Dean and might have been a bit off balance at first.

But everyone, even those who've been before, have to relearn the process.

If you want another delegate from the caucus, you have to persuade someone(s) for other candidates. I was never good at that, altho I attended a large turn-out caucus 72,76,80,84, and 88.

What you learn as a voter or as a worker intensely involved in your candidate's success is...........that a lot of times you lose.

So you go on to the next state, or to the next election, hoping that you've learned something.

BTW, our son (now over 30), often asked us why we kept voting since our candidates 'never' won....

[Capn Sunshine]

51. yes, perhaps "insiders" is too strong

but the regular party workers, the old experienced party folk, they leaned heavily Kerry. Just how it broke down in Iowa. Dean was viewed as the upstart who went around them, and they were tweaked about it. Here: I'll post my recounting to Tamara Pogue, Director of Field Ops , for you:
I have been gathering data from folks on the ground in Iowa and
filtering with my own observations of what I saw at the CSPAN
broadcasts of the caucuses in action and I believe we have learned a
valuable lesson the hard way here.

The caucus machinery IS CONTROLLED BY PARTY INSIDERS. Our campaign
is still very "outside" in many areas. Not so much here in
California, where there is solid support for Howard Dean at the
Democratic Party structure level, but Iowa was a good example of the
contrast. Most of the machinery folks resented the swarms of
enthusiastic young folks with the Dean movment and honestly, still
were solid with Gephardt and Kerry.

So, we found we had massive numbers of feet on the ground. Sure in
retrospect ,maybe the Ads were partly to blame. But as near as I
could see and what I have heard, there was a breakdown at the most
vital level in the whole caucus process. Dean people, as newbies to
this whole procedure, went to their assigned caucuses all right, but
then, they had no idea how to proceed. The Kerry and Gephardt
(caucus regulars) people did, and had those under the table
handshake deals going, plus they had some first class operatives
there "wrangling" votes from other candidates once they were
declared "unviable". The Dean people basically were unaware of the
wheeling and dealing aspect of this part of the process,and it just
happened around them, with Kucinich people going to Edwards and
Kerry (PRO WAR GUYS! Can you imagine?)and Gephardt's people going
to Edwards as well.

Tom Schaller, writing of this in The Daily Kos :

"I saw this woman in Precinct 63 in Des Moines who, sitting in her
chair at the Gephardt table, was literally and metaphorically
unmoved by anything the Dean precinct captain had to say. Gephardt
turned out to be the anti-Dean movement all by himself.<snip>At
Precinct #63, which caucused at the same, East High School as
Precinct 37, there were ample Dean signs. The precinct captains had
the super-looking yellow T-shirts that with blue lettering that
read "Dean Precinct Captain, January 19, 2004." On the back it
read "It starts here, it starts now." The Dean campaign had not one,
not two, but three observers in the room. Amazingly, Kucinich had
two, but neither Kerry nor Edwards nor Gephardt had any. But so
what? What counts are the people in the caucuses, not the ones
watching from the sidelines.

More damning, the Dean precinct captain on the floor was ineffective
and diffident. I watched with amazement as a more-motivated, more-
mature Edwards captain named Susan Voss (sans T-shirt, sans sideline
coaches) went over to the Gephardt folks in Precinct 63, who at that
point had only seven members but needed nine for viability. Susan
sat down at their table, looked them in the eye, appealed to them
about how Edwards is an "articulate, bright, caring person." You can
tell not only that she meant it, but that she could personalize it.
She didn't have any training, and it showed - it showed as
authentic, that is.

Then, with grace and aplomb, she got up and said she would make room
so a guy named Arturo, from the Kucinich group (also non-viable, and
hoping to move Gephardt's people to them to achieve viability),
could have his turn.

Meanwhile, the Deanies are sitting with their hands folded. They are
not even talking to each other. No comity, no motivation. The
precinct captain eventually comes over, unsure of what precisely to
do with himself or how to speak to people. The Geppies are still
sitting at the school library's tables at the far end of the room.

The Dean captain meanders over, stands over the Geppies, providing
physical distance that is conveyed in a non-verbally and dismissive
way. Worse, his main message is little more than, "C'mon, don't you
want to join us?" or "Are there any questions or issues you have
about the Governor?" The Geppies are literally staring at his navel,
because it's hard to make eye contact with somebody whose head is
three feet over your own with craning your neck.

There were six delegates to be assigned by the 60+ people who turned
out at Precinct 63. Dean had 16 of the caucus-goers at the start,
and ended up with 14. Kerry didn't budge much, but Edwards gained
strength. Gephardt managed to cobble together the two defections
from Kucinich he needed, and got one delegate, as did Dean and
Kerry. But Edwards left with two, and he can thank the dynamism,
assertiveness and tact of Susan Voss for that second delegate. "

Jerome Armstrong, In Dubuque with DFA:
"From Dubuque... Just before I got out of Des Moines, I got to talk
with three Texan observers from 8th, 11th, and 16th precincts in
Polk County (Des Moines). I took notes, as they told me what
occurred.

The basic gist was that the general laid down an excellent strategy,
but the execution didn't happen. Those who arrived at the caucus as
the Dean Precinct captains were unprepared; there was not enough
input into training them, not enough holding them through process of
what was going to happen the night of the caucus. In comparison,
Kerry and Edwards were ready.

For example, when it became apparent that Gephardt was unviable, the
Kerry and Edwards folks went after them for their support. 70% of
the Gephardt supporters went to Edwards, 10% to Dean, and the others
stayed uncommitted.

As an example for Dean's lack, in the 8th precinct, forty something
1's were expected to show up, only ten did. Precinct captains
didn't know how to play their role; they were newbie's in the
process. In the 11th and 16th, Kucinich supporters came over to
Dean, but in the 8th, Kucinich supporters outnumbered Dean by 19-17.

Kerry's folks were calling the shots, with one woman who was running
the poll wearing a "Real Deal" sticker. Kerry's caucus night
strategy worked, because there was an institutional base there for
him to use, an inside straight. The question is whether that's
applicable to other caucus states. It's really Kerry that has the
burden of proof now on his shoulders. "

What I learned from this is we need a better understanding of what
we are facing RIGHT NOW not only in New Hampshire, but New Mexico
and Carolina. This is why we as supporters have to mobilize within
the party structure as well as in spite of it.

Who is there can assemble the expertise to assure that the ENTIRE
process is thoroghly explained to participants, in advance of what
will surely be attempts to usurp the whole process by Kerry and
Edwards people again? Time is short, let's start riding.

[molly]

49. Party insiders? Caucus machinery? I think not -

I think it was Mr and Mrs and Ms Middle-America speaking out for a candidate that can win back our country. This should be a lesson - and Clinton sure won by it - the average voter does not pay attention until January. They then want someone of stature and charisma and intelligence and self-control that they can feel warm and cozy and safe with while his guy is running our country.

There was no herding contest - how many elections has Trippi participated in? He knew the score and took too many chances.

Educating the caucus? Iowa is reality.

[Capn Sunshine]

52. I hate to disagree on this

You're a nice person, but mistaken.
There WAS a herding contest , there was a breakdown. But your man got the prize. so that's where it's at.

Read my letter above to our director of Field Ops. We screwed the pooch on this one, and that's all.

[annagull]

14. Hey SCAntiGOP--I fell off, too

I had been going to meetups and writing letters, but this has opened my eyes a bit. He fell into the media's sterotype about him, which makes me think he's not ready for the fight against Bush. I am all for passion, and yes, I am angry too, but he lost an opportunity to redefine himself with his speech in Iowa after the caucus loss. Instead, he gave the performance the media had already scripted for him. Looking hard at Clark and Kerry, Edwards is a nice guy and great debater, my thinking is we need an old soldier.

[Jack_Dawson]

16. AnnaGull - look hard at Clark!

If there's anything I can send you, let me know.

[VolcanoJen]

21. You're right, and that's very eloquent! "We need an old soldier."

I started out with Edwards, and then Clark came along. I still love John, and I'll give him money and support, even though I'm still a little sore about that Hugh Shelton thing.

But Clark or Kerry... these are the "old soldiers" that can take Bush to the mat. Very well said, annagull!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

20. Thanks for the heartening post.

[tryanhas]

22. This is amazing...

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/page.asp?id=558

[Snivi Yllom]

27. I have not, im more fired up

Im pissed at Bush.
Im pissed at Republicans.
Im pissed at the media.
Im pissed at mudslinging at Dean.
Im pissed at 'oh the IWR vote was not a big deal' types.
Im pissed Americans are dying in Iraq.
Im pissed our nation is losing jobs and is headed towards bankruptcy.
Im pissed the environment is polluted.
Im pissed the rich stel our money.

I'm still supporting Dean.

[copithorne]

33. "Great Debater"

A couple of people have mentioned that Jon Edwards is a great debater.

Wesley Clark was captain of the debate team at West Point, where he graduated first in his class.

I suppose people have their own impressions from watching the Democratic debates. I haven't watched them that closely.

But believe me, Wesley Clark will completely overshadow George Bush if Bush agrees to participate in any debates. Wesley Clark has more than what it takes to destroy George Bush in the debates. What's more, Wesley Clark will take on George Bush's war -- which Edwards will not do.

Of course, to my mind, Al Gore crushed George Bush in the debates three times straight. It wasn't decisive.

[maxr4clark]

37. Edwards debates like Gore

...which is fine for the courtroom, but won't work with George Bush. Bush was talking to a different jury than Gore was, or Edwards would; Bush's jury isn't rational or interested in others, they're Republicans. Clark has a BIG advantage when it comes to knowing the audience over any other Democrat. He can speak to Democrats and Republicans, and get their votes.

Clark is right to say "I'm the only one who has stood toe-to-toe with a dictator", although I don't think most people realized he was equating Bush with a dictator at the time. The civilized debate Clark is having with the Democrats is nothing like what he will do to Bush. Clark treats Kerry and Edwards as friendly forces; Bush is the ENEMY.

Clark is a superb strategist, and has written two books about how the media and public perception are a part of modern war. If Clark gets to the general election, he will win BIG.

But the best news is, he truly is a Democrat. He cares about the rank and file citizens more than he cares about corporations or money. He cares about education and the United States using its pull around the world to make the world a better place, not about getting rich or feeding his ego. Just wait until you get to see his wife and his son on the campaign trail, and you'll understand that this is a guy who genuinely cares about the ordinary man.

[spooky3]

38. I appreciate the fine words about Clark, but what is your evidence

to support "Edwards debates like Gore"? These two people could not be more different in terms of personal style, which is a key factor in the GE debates. Certainly Edwards is smart and knowledgeable, as many people believe Gore is, but he has an ease and charm that Gore does not.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

40. I Disagree, Edwards Is a Great Debater

Clark is great too, but Edwards has more experience with verbal combat, IMO.

DTH

[Very Good Dem]

46. Edwards is an outstanding debater

He's smart, he doesn't "misspeak," he knows his stuff and - very important - he's an excellent listener, a crucial talent for good debating.

Perfect example. Remember in the last debate when Lieberman went on and on about the letter he wanted the others to pledge to sign? Edwards listened very carefully to Lieberman's longwinded speecha and clearly cut through the bull and noticed that Lieberman kept forgetting one thing. So he waited and then brought down the house by saying, "That was a fine speech, Joe. But what's in the letter?"

[maxr4clark]

53. you misunderstood me

Gore was also an excellent debater. The debates he had with Bush, he won, as far as debating skills go. What I meant was that Bush is so irrational, focusing on debating doesn't help.

[aldian159]

47. Don't get mad, get even.

And lets get Bush 2.0 out of power.

[Clark Can WIN]

41. I too would be happy with Kerry or Edwards

if my guy doesn't get tehre. Your time with Dean was not wasted though. You guys changed the face of the modern campaign, using tools never fully realized before. That's awesome.