Bush Rallies Lawmakers on Social Security
Cautious Congressional Republicans Seek
Political Cover in Risky Task of Selling Overhaul
By JACKIE CALMES
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
January 31, 2005
WASHINGTON -- It is a nightmare for many Republicans and a dream for many Democrats: What if President Bush's campaign to overhaul Social Security became his party's "HillaryCare?" That is the "killer analogy," one Republican lawmaker says, citing Bill and Hillary Clinton's 1994 bid to enact universal health care, which collapsed in a Democratic-controlled Congress and contributed mightily to the party's losing longtime House and Senate majorities.
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Before addressing the nation, Mr. Bush had to galvanize wary Republican troops at the West Virginia gathering. "The president said, 'I want and I expect a signing ceremony this year,' " says Rep. Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican who sponsored a bill to create private accounts. Some Republicans privately doubt that all members of their congressional conference understand the sensitive issues involved, such as the estimated $2 trillion transition cost for private accounts, future benefit reductions and possible payroll-tax increases for upper-income workers. Rep. Jim Kolbe of Arizona, a proponent of Social Security overhaul, said the retreat was helpful but the attention to "painful choices" ahead was "not nearly as much as I think you need to have."
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Although recent polls by the media, nonpartisan groups and Democrats indicate voters are skeptical of the president's Social Security ideas, Mr. Rove and pollster David Sackett countered with their own findings. "Rove's message was, if this is handled right, it can be a winner," says Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia, former chief of the House Republican campaign committee, who has aired political misgivings on the issue. Mr. Bush and his team detailed what they will do to advance Social Security overhaul through presidential campaigning and media advertising by the party and outside fund-raising groups. Also, consultants Richard Thau and Frank Luntz advised Republicans on how to talk about Social Security changes without alienating voters -- or giving fodder to Democrats, as House Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas of California recently did by suggesting benefits might differ by gender or race.
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Former Sen. John Breaux, a Democrat whom Mr. Bush named to a tax-code overhaul panel, says that based on his talks with Republicans, "Until the public is more accepting of at least considering these changes, I don't think the Congress is going to move." Though Mr. Breaux supported creating private accounts when the nation was running budget surpluses, now he asks: "Where are you going to get the transition costs? Is he willing to tie them to his tax cuts?"
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--John D. McKinnon and John Harwood contributed to this article.
Write to Jackie Calmes at jackie.calmes@wsj.com
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