Truth from today's stockmarkets. Some know Bush is going down.

[blm]

"U.S. stocks dip after earnings, Kerry win in Iowa"

Democrat John Kerry's win in Iowa's caucuses on Monday, knocking front-runner Howard Dean off stride, also dragged on the market, analysts said, as investors worried about uncertainty caused by a close-fought presidential election.
>>>>>>

Most investors have already bet that President George W. Bush will win re-election later this year, but a close race or shift in opinion favoring the Democrats could roil the stock markets.

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry made that more likely on Monday as he won more votes from Iowa Democrats for the presidential nomination than former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.

"Kerry is thought to have a better chance of beating Bush, not just by Democrats," said John Davidson, president of Partner Re Asset Management Corp. "It increases the likelihood that there will be a serious challenge."
>>>>>
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040120/markets_stocks_11.html

[central scrutinizer]

1. great!

So, the media whores are once again on their knees - we are going straight from the Clinton recession into the Kerry recession.

[blm]

7. No...that's not the point. Certain proBush/defense stock will go down.

Enviro-friendly ventures will eventually go up as it becomes more apparent that Kerry will win.

Kerry is cancelling Star Wars and tactical nuke programs.

He plans to fully fund research on alternative energy to get the country off its oil dependency.

[Qutzupalotl]

2. Even though the markets did better under Clinton

and barely kept up under Bush.

[snippy]

10. The market consistently has done better under democratic presidents.

The excess return in the stock market is higher under Democratic than Republican presidencies: nine percent for the value-weighted and 16 percent for the equal-weighted portfolio. The difference comes from higher real stock returns and lower real interest rates, is statistically significant,and is robust in subsamples. The difference in returns is not explained by business-cycle variables related to expected returns, and is not concentrated around election dates. There is no difference in the riskiness of the stock market across presidencies that could justify a risk premium. The difference in returns through the political cycle is therefore a puzzle.

http://www.personal.anderson.ucla.edu/rossen.valkanov/Politics.pdf

This analysis covers the years 1927-1998 and separately examines the years from 1927-1962 and 1963-1998. Results which included the years from 1999-2003 would show an even greater difference.

Every analysis shows better stock market performance under democratic presidents but none offer an explanation. My theory is that the difference is due to the much better rate of job creation under democratic presidents than under any republican president since the 1920's.

[spooky3]

12. yes, thanks for posting this

Smart businesspeople know that *'s policies will ruin the economy soon by pushing interest rates to high levels and forcing people to pay later for something received now, reducing their ability to consume in the future. Just ask Paul Krugman.

[West Coast Democrat]

3. Remember when they said that Gore's refusing to concede

right after the 2000 election was causing the stockmarket to tank? That was utter nonsense also. Once he conceded, the market continued to tumble.

[TheWebHead]

4. here's some direct evidence:

ballard power was up 5.35% today on no news:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BLDP&t=1d

Fuelcell Energy up 8.9% on no news:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FCEL&t=1d

Plug Power Inc up 9.5% on no news:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PLUG&t=1d

could see some of the alternative energy plays pushed up in the coming days...

[West Coast Democrat]

5. But Oil prices went up

hitting 10-month highs today

[blm]

8. Oil itself will go up for awhile.

Get what they can while the getting is good.

[West Coast Democrat]

9. Oil went up because of the blast in Algeria

that sent up the light crude prices

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Plug Power owner here!

But I won't say (admit) what I bought it at.

[KoKo]

11. Well Kerry and his buddies know alot about the "market" don't they......

just wait until we get all the reports. :-)'s

[John_H]

13. They were counting on an easy win over Dean. Not gon' happen.