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Having seen more Dean signs than any other when I was in Iowa last weekend, I fully expected Howard Dean to come in first, followed by Kerry and Edwards. (I correctly predicted that Gephardt would NOT win.)
I was surprised at the results--until I thought back to a family gathering in an exurban area of the Twin Cities three weeks ago. Present were about 15 relatives, ranging in age from my 92-year-old great aunt to my thirtysomething goddaughter, whose own baby was being baptized that day. The first American generation of this family, of whom my great-aunt is the last survivor, was blue collar and strongly pro-union and Democratic. The second and third generation are mostly college graduates living in the suburbs or small towns. I was the only person at the gathering who lives in an actual city.
The conversation began when a late arrival noted the Kucinich bumpersticker on my car. This started the all-too-familiar conversation in which half the relatives said "Who's that?" and the other half said something like, "I love his ideas, but he can't win." We then moved on to the other candidates. About ten of the people present took part in the conversation.
None of them liked Howard Dean, and the reasons had nothing to do with his policies. They thought he was "slick," "cocky," and "the yuppie candidate."
Kerry got props for being the most experienced candidate, for "looking presidential," and for having "paid his dues."
They found Edwards extremely likable on a personal level, and the same was true of Carol Mosely Braun.
They dismissed Gepahrdt as a "has been," and they were looking at Clark, because they had heard friends say good things about him.
They found Lieberman annoying and enjoyed Al Sharpton's participation in the debates but didn't take him seriously.
We can take great comfort in the fact that they all either hated Bush or said nothing about him. He had no defenderes at that gathering (probably because my Republican brother wasn't there.)
It is also noteworthy that none of them talked much about the issues involved or the types of campaigns that the candidates were pursuing. They seemed to be operating on impressions and background knowledge.
In the light of this conversation, the results from Iowa are not surprising at all.
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