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Tweety, Kondracke, Russert, Stephanopoulos, Schneider, etc.: None of them saw Kerry coming on until they read the polls. None of them predicted Gephardt finishing a very poor fourth. None of them realized how strongly Edwards would finish. The signal lesson: None of them knows any more than you or me. They are well-paid, suit-wearing weathervane watchers. They are as dependent on polls as the average citizen. It is astonishing that anyone listens to them.
Prediction: Last night's and this morning's pundit predictions will not be borne out by N.H. polls late this week. At that point, the punditocracy will regroup and explain that their predictions were based on not knowing unknowables (like the fact that voters can think for themselves) and that now they see a "surge" or "collapse" in candidates A or B. The "surge" or "collapse" will swing the other way by next Tuesday night, however, at which point the pundits will repeat, for the nauseating umpteenth time, that "no one" could have seen happening what ended up happening.
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