So lets look ahead to next week

[ShaneGR]

Here's how I think the camps should view New Hampshire:

1. Kerry- Absolutely HAS to win New Hampshire. If he loses he's got bigtime problems because the next week starts the southern voting, where Edwards and Clark will be the strongest due to their southern heritage. He could finish second and survive but beneath that he's gonna have to TOTALLY depend on Super Tuesday.

2. Dean- Once again, Dean HAS to win New Hampshire. The same southern problem is presented for Dean, and his campaign will be seen as being in a complete free for all. Considering the polling in NH, up until today, showed Dean in first.... this could be for all the marbles.

3. Clark- Needs a strong second to get him attention and propell him to the south. Anything below that and he's toast because he's been in New Hampshire for the last month non-stop... most of the time by himself.

4. Edwards- Third will work, he's got South Carolina the following week (WHERE HE HAS TO WIN), so New Hampshire isn't a necessity.



What do you think?

[Justice]

1. My prediction

Kerry gains ground in NH.

Clark and Kerry fight it out for one and two. Kerry edges Clark out for first.

Dean slips to third.

Lieberman slides. Edwards is stable.

[arewethereyet]

2. close

Clark and Dean have to win. Clark has had the state to himself (OK I realize taht lieberman was there but well, you know). Given the nature of Iowa race and results he just has to make a statement or his lack of political experience will doom him. Dean needs it, well, you knwo why.

Kerry can go 2nd or a tightly contested third but it would be better if he swept but he can survive till Super Tuesday.

Edwards can just break into double digits and can ride back home on the white horse. Absent that Clark win, the south is his. Even with it, it needs to be convincing. The south loves native sons made good and minus an accent, Arkansas is not southern.

Lieberman is kaput, it blew up on him badly. Unless he wins of course.

[ShaneGR]

3. I generally agree, except for Clark

I think Clark gets his ticket punched with second place. Keep in mind that Clark, with matching funds, will still have at least 15 million left after New Hampshire.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. No matter what happens in NH, the southern contests will be tough

I hope Kerry's got some magic he can work in SC, OK, Missouri, NM, and AZ. It will be tough.

[mikehiggins]

5. Clark should get third

And now there are seven...

I think the polls are going to melt down after Iowa but the SOTU is going to take a lot of steam out of Kerry's sails. Does he take time to respond to Bush or go after Clark.

And Dean is going to come after him like a pit bull. If he doesn't win in NH I think he's done.

I think it'll be Dean, Kerry, Clark, Edwards, Kuchinich, Sharpton and some other guy the Manchester Union Leader likes.

At any rate, Clark and Edwards will be squaring off in the South no matter what happens in NH. The New England boys will have a harder time of it.

Just a guess though. I never figured Edwards would score like he did.