Did Kucinich do Jiu Jitsu on Dean in Iowa?

[Bucky]

The way the caucus polling is structured, we may never know what the true candidate support levels really were. Once Iowans go into the caucus centers, they're free to cast their votes one way or another, cut deals, regroups strategically, and basically realign the voting in whatever way they can.

The point is, we have no idea of Dennis's real support depth. But by telling his people to group for the Edwards tally if they don't break 15%, Kucinich was doing something really smart. The more up he pushed Edwards, the harder it would be for Dean to break into 2nd place. There may have been the realpolitik calculation on Kucinich's part that if he didn't specify a default choice for his suppporters, they'd go to the other vocally anti-war candidate, Dean. I doubt Kucinich wanted to see his support sucked up into the Dean movement.

So with very little weight to throw around, Kucinich threw it to the one place where he could do Dean the most damage.

Is this a valid theory? Edwards does seem determined to pick up the support of whoever doesn't make the cut. His paeaen to Gephardt in his acceptance speech tonight was brilliant--and probably pointed straight at Gephardt's supporters in South Carolina.

[hedgetrimmer]

1. He did beautiful ballet KUNG FU style!

that you so eloquently expressed... and i think you are so right dude...

[sleipnir]

2. Yes, I agree, Edwards 2nd place is an anomaly and won't be repeated

Now that Kucinich and Edwards have stopped sharing support. I thought this too, and I strongly believe that this is the last time we see a strong showing from Edwards outside of the 12 southern states.

IMO, it was a great move by Kucinich, he's in the top 5, and he lost a lot of his support.

[ShaneGR]

4. You say that now, but wait until two weeks from now

When South Carolina and Georgia come up, Edwards will be on a roll. He doesn't need to do well in New Hampshire.... though I suspect he will.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Pretty close.

And Gephardt fell on his sword for Kerry.

Protect your own.

[goodhue]

5. his own words . . .

"This is the beginning of the campaign," said Kucinich. "We've got 49 states left to go. The media had long ago predicted the winner of the entire process and even the loser of the general election, and tonight's caucuses have the pundits scratching their collective scalps in bewilderment. I moved from ninth place to fifth and won delegates despite the 15 percent threshold.

"The longtime poll leader dropped to third, which some pundits are erroneously crediting to Dr. Dean's status as an anti-war candidate. Dr. Dean did not consistently oppose the initial stages of this war and he has said that he will keep our troops in Iraq for years.

"As I climb higher in New Hampshire and each successive state, and as the situation in Iraq continues to worsen, Democratic support for peace will be reflected in my campaign's success. I predict a brokered convention in July. By the end of this month my campaign will have raised over $10 million, including matching funds, and I'm just getting started.

"As part of my strategy in the Iowa caucuses, I worked out an arrangement with Senator Edwards that may have allowed each of us to pick up a few more delegates. Our supporters, of course, ultimately chose their own courses of action. But none were left with their only strategic choice being leaving their caucus and going home. John and I are friends and I wish him the best. But we have 49 states left to go, and we're each on our own."

http://www.kucinich.us/pressreleases/pr_011904b.php

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. Takes a shot at Dean.

How nice. :D

[DemBones DemBones]

12. Dean kept calling himself the

"ONLY candidate against the war from the start," even after Dennis reminded him that this was incorrect.

Dennis also had to endure being called Bush-lite and hearing himself and his colleagues in Congress called "cockroaches" -- both insults came from Dean.

Dean could have forged an alliance with the real anti-war candidate instead of alienating him.

"Live by the sword, die by the sword" may well apply to Dean.

[HFishbine]

19. Actually

After his initial slight of Kucinich, Dean was very conciencious about mentioning that Kucinich also opposed the war.

What Kucinich demonstrated, in throwing his support to a pro-war candidate, is that revenge for his hurt feelings was more important than a principled anti-war stance.

[DemBones DemBones]

21. Dean was not as conscientious as you aver,

and has not maintained "a principled anti-war stance"?

Kucinich and Edwards finessed Dean and Trippi and that's a bitter pill for Dean supporters to swallow.

Dean lost because Iowans didn't support him in large numbers.

Iowans say they want a nominee who can beat Bush, and not many think Dean is right for the job.

[LWolf]

31. I didn't perceive it that way.

The "conscientious" part.

In the last debate, Dean did his stump "I was the only thing and then interrupted himself to say, "except Dennis Kucinich," etc.

That "except" sounded to me like he was doing this:

:eyes:

And the interruption to set it straight told me that he doesn't include it in his stump speeches, where he still claims "only" status; only when the cameras and nation are watching, and he can be called on it, does he remember that rather patronizing "except."

The DK/Edwards thing didn't have anything to do with hurt feelings/revenge. It had to do with gaining delegates. Election strategy.

If you think otherwise, make sure your team never sacks, recovers a fumble, double-covers, tackles, or blocks anyone on the opposing team to keep the score within reach.

[Tinoire]

34. An oft-repeated slight that made it to the print press at least twice?

Go re-read the original threads about this subject. Dean repeated and compounded that lie (which we were brazenly told by Dean supporters was not a lie).

If you really have the heart, go all the way back to the threads where Kucinich supporters explain why we don't believe Dean is as anti-war as that. You can't be pro-war for Afghanistan, Iraq (Bush I & Clinton), Yugoslavia and now pro-occupation for Iraq and expect to capture the anti-war vote when you're more of a Moderate than a Liberal.

I wish Dean a good showing and I wish his supporters would get back to work instead of bitching because they counted on a block of votes we've been begging you from the beginning not to count on.

There are circles within circles in this election and most people are looking for the best balance of their issues that they can find. Dean can not meet that balance for everyone- this is simply a fact of life and based on his own record. Now get back to work CAJOLING people and explaining what Dean brings to that balance!! The sour grapes are not becoming and will cause further alienation of "fringe Leftists" because you are alienating us with these insults & by showing that you haven't listened closely enough to understand what happened yesterday. Or that you don't even understand what went down yesterday- it was more strategic than anything. Kucinich didn't "throw" support to Edwards- Kucinich simply took advantage of a perfecty acceptable means to combat Trippi who flew/bussed in supporters from out of state and strategically placed the everywhere (they all brought people in to some extent). That's what these sour grapes are about- that Kucinich outmanouvered Dean and remains a viable candidate. Very unbecoming.

Please quit counting on the Kucinich vote. Dean doesn't own it. No one does. We're all looking for the best balance we can find. Dean doesn't meet them for everyone- that's just life.

It's only the opening shot with the horses barely out of the race. Get back to work- it ain't over yet!

[youngred]

35. or maybe

that Edwards is more liberal on the majority of other issues than the moderate Dean...

Iraq is ONE of many planks in the platform

[nancyharris]

47. Sorry

<"After his initial slight of Kucinich, Dean was very conciencious about mentioning that Kucinich also opposed the war.
">

I heard Governor Dean this morning on NPR and again he said “I am the only candidate that was against the war”

Some people never learn.

[genius]

8. Way to go Dennis.

Great job. Some candidates don't know they can win more with kindness than lies. Dennis has proven he knows how to win.

[Zomby Woof]

7. I love politics

Love it. :-)

[Desertrose]

9. hey man....

Like your new sig...Kucinch/Edwards...been thinking that a time or two myself...

Ya like my new sig photo of DK in Farmington? Norman Brown did the poster behind Dennis...it is the nuclear sign with this cool gecko clawing it all to hell. It was really perfect for the Diné Bidziil- fighting to heal the uranium leagacy on the rez!


Peace
DMom

(sure ain't gonna be boring ...great political stuff, eh?)

[Zomby Woof]

10. too cool!!

Can't wait to hear about it! MUCH better than my aimless wandering between Scottsdale and PHX, but dammit, I found a FINE jacket in my size at last! Had to special order the shoes. My size is 13EEEE, and they don't make many dress shoes that big. :evilgrin:

Snowing to beat all up here! I had a somewhat slick ride home :o

:hi:

[AP]

11. The gap between Edwards and Dean was HUGE. More than Kucinich's supporters

did this.

However, I think Kucinich's seal of approval meant that many Dean supporters who thought Dean was the libereal electable alternative to Kucinich had a gut check and went with Edwards instead.

[oasis]

17. Meanwhile offstage, a stunned Carol Mosely Braun clutches a wilted bouquet

as a token for her performance in the last debate.

[tinanator]

18. my thoughts exactly

not to mention her valuable endorsement of Dean. heh heh heh.

[Zomby Woof]

45. I absolutely agree

The present matters now, and the future. I disagreed with Edwards vehemently on his IWR/Patriot Act votes, as I disagreed with DK's past votes on choice, and his flag-burning amendment vote.

But what ultimately makes Edwards my #2 choice is the domestic agenda, as it helped make DK my #1 choice. They are very compatible there (some wide but not irreconciable differences here and there), and I can easily see many (not all, of course) DK supporters being able to get behind Edwards if that should come to pass. I know I will, which is why I now openly support a DK/Edwards ticket.

Dean? Feh. It is encouraging seeing many people wake up about him.

You were behind Edwards when he had scant support on DU, and I applaud your consistent advocacy for his campaign.

[stickdog]

13. Kucinich pinned himself in the first round. (nt)

[Zomby Woof]

14. Is that so?

Kerry's margin of victory over Dean: 20 points.

Dean's margin over DK: 17 points, a smaller gap than between Kerry and Dean, and according to the almighty polls, Dean was supposed to beat DK by 30 or more.

Kerry crushed Dean, and DK got a delegate or two where none may have been acquired before without the help of one John Edwards, who also crushed Dean.

It's just too sweet. A week ago, all the Dean supporters were confident that Dean would win a squeaker, or even by a large margin.

I love politics.

[stickdog]

15. Thanks. That's funny.

Yes, Dennis won because he held Dean's vote down to less than 15 times (13.9) his own.

Because, as we all know, it's only how badly you fuck up Dean that counts.

[polpilot]

25. Blind adherence to the status quo. Dean represents anti-establishment

change and that scares the Kerry/Gep/Clark/Edwards crowd. Pro-war pro-death pro-establishment. Kucinich fails the morality test and slinks off with little valor...and forever loses his anti-war status.

Dean '04...

[youngred]

38. Dean that outsider from yale!

that anti-establishment man with long family connections with the Bush family.

Dean is many good things, but he is hardly a outsider candidate.

Meanwhile Dennis Kucinich maintains his anti-war status as he was the first and only candidate to oppose the war from the VERY start.

Dean slinks off with less valor after having tried to steal headlines with his best WWE impression

[youngred]

36. little bitterness in your post

Dean's been playing the fuck everybody else card for months now. You wonder why the others begin to react? The point he was trying to make, and that you so blindly missed, was that Dennis was closer to Dean than Dean was to Kerry, in a caucus that was Dean's to lose.

[Zomby Woof]

37. I don't give DK ANY of the credit

YOU were the one who posted a blame thread about DK. I wish it were so that DK was responsible, but Dean is to blame for his own damn fall. Not the media, or Rove, or anyone else. Dean, and his supporters, have alienated lots of undecideds and other supporters.

[ThirdWheelLegend]

16. that didn't sound very nice zomby..

but oh is it sweet :P

TWL

[HFishbine]

20. Yes, it's so.

A narrow 17 point difference between Kucinich and third place Dean. That's a real accomplishment -- not.

Kucinich has nuetralized himself by caving on his strongest issue. Having encouraged his supporters to caucus for a pro-war candidate, Kucinich will no longer be able to credibly speak about his opposition to the war.

[w4rma]

22. I agree. (n/t)

[RetroLounge]

23. DK, Just another Sell-out Loser

B'Bye Dennis.

Maybe you can get your Department of Peace now?

Ya, right... Sell-out...

[DemBones DemBones]

26. Sour grapes for breakfast?

Sets my teeth on edge. :shudder:

[beaconess]

33. Add DK to the ever growing list of evil, anti-Dean sellouts

[youngred]

39. funny how the only people calling Dennis a sellout

are Dean supporters....

[DemBones DemBones]

24. Watch and see. I don't think DK lost any real supporters.

Iowans who supported him and didn't have 15% in their caucus had to go somewhere. He suggested Edwards. Supporters could follow that suggestion or not. Other campaigns had their reps in the caucuses urging Kucinich voters to switch to their guy.

I loved the guy in his 70's in Dubuque who said several times "Dennis wants us to go with Edwards." It's good to see DK appeal to senior citizens and command that sort of loyalty. I loved the senior who was telling another in the hall that DK was "the only one really worth a damn" and a "real Democrat." He went on to say that Kucinich wasn't getting enough support so he was going with Edwards.

But some in that group went to Dean because the Dean chair promised them "a delegate at the county," which sounded spurious to me. No one knew what she was talking about but she was insistent and convinced some. I hope it was a legit offer. If not, well, why didn't they ask the caucus chair?

Bottom line is that Dennis and John Edwards are on the same wavelength about jobs, the economy, taxes. Each encouraged his supporters to go to the other if he wasn't "viable." This agreement was based on what they have in common.

Dennis might have preferred to make an alliance with someone else with a principled anti-war position like his, but there really was no one else.

Sharpton? Too little support. CMB? Dropped out. Dean? Inconsistent about the war.

[stickdog]

28. Edwards? A consistent and completely unrepentent hawk. (mt)

[youngred]

42. LISTEN TO THIS

THE WAR IS NOT THE ONLY ISSUE

[polpilot]

32. Would YOU support pro-war Edwards?

I certainly don't mind someone being pro-war, that's their choice, but I could never support a pro-Iraqi war candidate. But then I do have a globe at home.

Dean '04

[diamondsoul]

46. Populists sticking together for Iowa.

Now I suspect the two are circling each other despite their friendship.

Think about it- in a full-out populist campaign between these two men which is going to win? The question is can Edwards and Kucinich collectively push Kerry down as effectively as they did Dean in Iowa. I don't know about that one.

(that's not to dismiss Clark or Dean right now, just looking at the picture as it stands today.)

[Zomby Woof]

40. you missed the point, too

Dean had FAR more to lose than DK in this race. Dean was the frontrunner less than a week ago. Dennis was always polling between 1-4% in Iowa. I just found it funny that looking on the scale, Dean finished closer to DK than he did Kerry, lol. I just love seeing all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over Dean. I am an asshole that way. ;-)

[goodhue]

27. Kucinich will outlast Dean

bet on it

[stickdog]

29. Dean won more delegates last night than Kucinich will win if he stays

in the campaign until the last primary.

I'd say bet on it, but with whom?

[Hep]

30. If true it's pretty hateful

n/t

[youngred]

43. hateful?

you need to rexamine your use of that word methinks

[redqueen]

44. Please, this is politics, not a church banquet

It was smart.

And people are saying he lost support... I think you're mistaken. Only time will tell. :)

[diamondsoul]

48. He hasn't compromised, sold out or lost

a thing. The flat out fact is ONLY Kucinich and Edwards are running truly populist campaigns. They stuck together for one contest, and now it's gonna get ugly. Dennis is as sharp as a razor and he knows what he's doing. He came in at least even with his regular polling, helped take Dean down a bit in the current standings and boosted the only other Populist candidate to come out of the gate in a better position.

The war had squat to do with this particular deal or vote. It was pure straight up strategy, and dammit I'm PROUD of him for it!

[Snivi Yllom]

41. how could he hurt Dean

the support he may have directed to Edwards was MINIMAL at best.

[diamondsoul]

49. And you know this because....

You like the rest of us have NO firm idea how much support Kucinich started out with. For all we know he had 14.9% Statewide in the first round. We DO know it was better than 3% which was all that was expected, otherwise Edwards would have gained nothing at all from us and Kucinich would have ZERO delegates.