After all the polls and pundits declaring Dean in decline or dead...

[jeter]

...do you guys think that he will get a giant boost if he wins tonights Iowa caucus?

I do.

That's the danger of prematurely declaring someone to the political graveyard. If he pulls through, it's like Clinton in 1992...he becomes the comeback kid.

Then it's off to New Hampshire where he already has a lead heading in.

The Iowa caucus is not like a primary. So polling really means nothing. It's about organization and getting your supporters out to vote.

That's why I think Dean finishes first and Gephardt second. Kerry and Edwards finish third and fourth.

This will be bad news for Kerry after all the attention he has gotten this past weekend.

Anyway, I look forward to watching the results tonight. It will be fun to watch.

[Cuban_Liberal]

1. They're idiots!

Dr. Dean is far from 'dead', and I can give you 20 million rea$on$ why.:)

[auntpattywatty]

2. I thought it was $40 million

[Cuban_Liberal]

5. He's spent about $20 million of that already.

:)

[kerry-is-my-prez]

12. Wow! Iowa's a black hole... Would have to be frustrating to Dean if they

don't win after all that...

[Cuban_Liberal]

13. He didn't spend it all there. *grin*

He has a 50-state operation up and running, with full-time staff in 27 states already. :)

[creativelcro]

20. Dean will win tonight!...

[lancdem]

3. Even if he finishes second in Iowa

he'll be OK. The winner of the Iowa caucuses often doesn't win the nomination anyway. N.H. is more important, actually.

[Guaranteed]

17. And I think that he's learned something in Iowa.

He'll do better in NH- especially being from Vermont.

[jpgray]

4. The "momentum" coverage can give you whiplash

Most of it is total bullshit, so they can create whole movements and epic stories out of utter thin air.

[dusty64]

6. I would think so, but

the media never admits when they are wrong. It would only be a story if they decide to cover the story and I'm not holding my breath. They only thing I'm sure of anymore is that whomever wins the primary is in for an epic shitstorm of negativity from our very own Pravda.

[BeyondGeography]

7. Dean remains the frontrunner

No matter what happens in Iowa. He still leads in NH, in the national polls, and he's got the most loyal base of support coast-to-coast.

But he has lost the air of inevitability, which is for the best. If he winds up with the nomination, the bruising battles in Iowa and yet to come will make him more formidable in the end.

[Cuban_Liberal]

8. I agree.

Much of his lead was hype, and so is much of this 'decline' stuff. He remains a formidable opponenent, and only a fool wouldn't understand that. :)

[candy331]

9. Of course the media will be off

to the SOTU speech in the morning so the winner will be pushed to the side to fluff up the shrub.

[isbister]

10. Dean's not dead

but he is in a bit of a decline. He needs to win big tonight to get back to where he was. I think if the margin is small, the Dean people won't like the way the press spins it.

Gephardt needs to win, he said it, everybody says it. Now, he may not drop out if he's close in this one but his days will probably be numbered.

Kerry and Edwards can finish 1-4 in a close race and be in various degrees of great shape. Edwards can much better afford a distant 4th than Kerry could.

[Guaranteed]

15. I think a Dean win tonight is a KILLER to at least three of the other

campaigns. It hurts REALLY badly to get your hopes up, and then get them dashed. I used the analogy earlier of losing a 13-inning baseball game...don't know if you watch baseball, but, man, that really takes it out of you. Takes a full week to recover your morale.

Losing Iowa to Dean after this optimism would have a backlash ten times worse.

[kentuck]

11. Definitely....

This coud be the best thing that could happen to Dean....It is much better to run as an underdog and win than run as the favorite and lose. This could make Dean stronger.

[tedoll78]

14. Yes - I fully agree.

If Dean wins here tonight, I think he'll have the nomination locked-up by mid-February.

A win tonight bounces him in New Hampshire.
A win in New Hampshire gets him a week of glowing media coverage before Feb 3 (where he leads or ties for first in most of its states already).
With a poll bounce in that week, he could very well sweep Feb 3, which would wrap things up pretty quickly.

That's my theory.

[blm]

16. The media has been declaring Kerry dead for months.

Did you notice?

His RECORD came through once people started paying attention. Kerry's RECORD matches his campaign rhetoric and policy positions.

[mandyky]

18. I think we should send each of these pundits

a bottle of BBQ sauce for their crow they'll be having for a midnight snack when Dean wins LOL

[MGKrebs]

19. For Dean to even be considered in the "top tier"

is impressive in my opinion. Six months ago nobody even knew who he was.

Kerry has somehow been able to muster a strong finish, and Edwards too. I am so proud that we have great candidates to choose from.

THIS IS DEMOCRACY!

[Padraig18]

21. Dean will win tonight. n/t