November Surprise?

[demwing]

There has been some discussion as to whether Kerry is working under the radar to challenge election results in either Florida or Ohio.

I have no idea if this is true, but regardless, there is "something happening" that has not been discussed much on DU.

On November 13th (next Saturday), 11 days will have passed since the election. At that point, perhaps shortly before, the Ohio provisional ballot count will begin. According to the Ohio Sec of State, there are about 155,000 ballots, total. Some of those may be thrown out. Historically, that number runs about 10%.

Also waiting to be counted are an untold amount of overseas absentee ballots.

On top of that, there are some 90,000 "spoiled" ballots that would only be counted if Ohio had a full recount.

That means there are pretty close to 250,000 additional ballots in Ohio. Even if 25% of those were tossed out as unlawful provisionals or unreadable "spolied" ballots, there are still over 185,000 ballots uncounted in that critical state.

Did I mention that Kerry has already picked up 3500+ votes due to a computer glitch that was later corrected? Actually, Bush lost the votes, Kerry didn't gain any, but the net effect is the same.

It is entirely possible that Kerry is playing this hand close to the vest, waiting patiently for the provisional ballot count. That count will certainly pull the vote closer than it curretly sits, and there is the slim chance that it will throw the state to Kerry.

If the provisional don't do the job outright, Kerry (through a surrogate, such as 5 Ohio delegates or the Ohio Dem party) could ask for a full recount, using the computer glitch as his basis. That throws in those "spoiled" ballots.

The chance for a November Surprise may not be as narrow as you might believe. This card game ain't over yet.

[fishface]

1. My favorite comment by the rethug sec state on those 3000+ votes

"That's the ONLY errors that happened"

yep..I'll believe that.(What am I bid for this nice bridge in Brooklyn?)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. how could he know that?

A: He can't- at least not at this early date.

[demwing]

2. kick

[Kazak]

4. Gonna be interesting...

'Eagerly awaiting the results!

[Hamlette]

5. how far is Kerry behind at this point?

and has Ohio had provisional ballots in prior years? I thought they were new this year.

[gauguin57]

6. We need a recount in both Ohio and Florida.

There's enough smoke to check for fire. We HAVE to have a hand-recount of the opti-scan ballots (a statewide recount would include those) in those 29 counties with vote-flip anomalies (see Olbermann show of last night).

Kerry must ask in Ohio. Either Kerry OR Nader could ask in Florida.

[demwing]

7. kick-o-rama

[Must_B_Free]

8. All this conversation is KILLING THEM

the fucking buzz is about and it's spreading. The repukes problem is there are no satisfactory anwers to the questions.

They were able to strongarm it all as an anomaly in 2000, but in 2004 we can't get fooled again. This thing just isn't going away, its getting stronger. Now the media is trying to catch on and trying to steer it, but they have already marginalized thmselves with their poor performance in the election and their whorish selling of the Bush state brainwashing.

All this shit about Christian reconstructionists is too much like Heavens Gate - it freaks EVERYONE out.