My prediction on the gay marriage issue.

[Silverhair]

I have a gay stepson with whom I have a good relationship, so don't call me anti-gay. Nor am I espousing ANY particualar stand on any issue. I am predicting. To predict is NOT to advocate. When the weatherman says a tornado is coming, that does not mean that he wants the tornado.

The religious right turned out big time to put Bush in office, and it was greatly over the gay marriage issue, and in more states than just the 11 states that had anti-gay marriage amendments on their ballots. Therefore Bush owes them big time, and they will expect him to carry through, or they will sit out the vote in 06. Bush knows this and will put the Federal Marriage Amendment in congress again. Even if it doesn't pass, from his point of view it keeps the issue alive to attack Democrats with. Expect the Reps to have STRONG party discipline in the House & Senate. Expect some Democrats that are up for reelection in 06 that are in red states to develop some weak knees. (Hey, look what happened to Democrats on the Assualt Weapons bill this year. Weak knees after the slaughter of 94. BTW - the assualt weapons bill was merely cosmetics that accomplished very little. Genuine AWs were already illegal. That bill merely banned look alike guns, even if they didn't have the internal machinery of an real AW. But that is off topic. The point is that the political price was shown to be high for the AW ban, and has been shown to be VERY high for supporting gay marriage.)

I read somewhere today that some gays are going to challenge the anti-gay marriage amendments. That will end up in SCOTUS. Supreme Court nominees are going to be a MAJOR item in the next term. Don't expect Bush to give an inch here. He will be ready to have any level of Senate fight over confirmation. If we block his nominees by filibuster, and at the same time there is a gay marriage case working it's way up the court system, he will use that to whip up the religious right.

If Democrats are able to block an FMA, or block Bush's ultra conservative nominees to SCOTUS, then look for the religious right to come out in droves in 06. None of our web sites were expecting 55 Rep senators. Some were even thinking that we would retake the senate. All were expecting that we would carry the senate in OK. Several other races looked to be good. We got our clock cleaned on the senate races.

The storm is coming. Sorry, but I don't have any ideas. We can't drop the gays without losing the principless we stand for. But at the same time, the issue is killing us.

Anybody have any ideas to solve the problem?

[knight_of_the_star]

1. If we can keep 34 Senators that don't waver

Then we're ok for just the sake of basic survival. Beyond that, it gets hard.

[Silverhair]

2. That's doable. 18 blue states, 36 senators. N/T

[Mike L]

4. Basic survival? What?

34 Senators might as well be zero Senators.

[KharmaTrain]

3. Gay Marriage Ammendment Is A Useful Tool

For the Repugnicans...the worst thing they can do is give up that hammer. They've been doing this with abortion since the 80's.

What's the sense of saying there's a fire when you've put the fire out? This issue will be used over and over to inflame a reaction from the gay community, which it will get, and then used against Democrats. It worked very well this year and why give up on such an effective weapon?

[Mike L]

5. If we don't find some way to get rid of this issue, the Democratic Party

is dead.

[KharmaTrain]

12. Not Getting Rid Of It, Redefining It

I think this is just as impossible, since it would require the GLBT community to remain silent as the debate is moved from their sexuality to the overall concept of human rights.

This is treading on dangerous ground, but the bottom line is that a majority of people in this country don't care one way or the other about homosexuality as long as it's not made into an issue. It's purely a private one and should be. This is a two way street...it means not only does one not persecute someone because they are gay or "look gay"...inversely it's the agenda of the Gay community to put their issues ahead of others or to create opportunities where the Repugnicans can exploit it. As I say, it's just dreaming.

What really needs to be worked on is exposing the hypocritical nature of the Repugnican's on the "moral" issue. By promoting war, death and discrimination, it is, more than ever, the party of the bigots and hypocrites. Unfortunately there's few voices out there that can reach above the noise.

[davepc]

6. This is why we need to sacrifice some idealism in the short term

to pragmatic goals like winning elections.

I don't want to sell anybody out, be we can do a lot more good for a greater number of people on a bigger number of issues being IN power then being a small minority party thats slowly getting squeezed out of national policy decisions.

We DON'T want to be the 1936 Republicans. They had their agenda brushed aside for progressive goals for 80 years. Only now are they getting in position to bring their agenda back.

[TheDonkey]

7. We need to define the argument. muddy the waters

stop talking about gay people. Start talking about small government, individual rights, and equality.

Thugs are good at twisting our words so I say we start fighting back by just attacking them for being bigotted government nannies.

[Mike L]

8. Talk won't help. Rove will be back with 11 more state amendments and

will be poking the fundies with a stick.

[Azure]

9. Yes. Time to get tough and bite the bullet.

Let's get some perspective on this.

40 million Americans should not be without healthcare because we can't compromise on gay marriage. Social Security should not be in danger of extinction because we can't compromise on gay marriage. Thousands of US soldiers and tens of thousands of foreign civilians should not be suffering and dying because we can't compromise on gay marriage. Dozens of our civil rights should not be under the gun because we can't compromise on a single civil rights issue - gay marriage.

Time to think about the greater good. If we don't grow a pair and learn that you never get everything you ask for, we can plan on remaining marginalized from here on out.

Let the states decide.

[hinachan]

13. Time to get tough, indeed!

<<40 million Americans should not be without healthcare because we can't compromise on gay marriage. Social Security should not be in danger of extinction because we can't compromise on gay marriage. Thousands of US soldiers and tens of thousands of foreign civilians should not be suffering and dying because we can't compromise on gay marriage. Dozens of our civil rights should not be under the gun because we can't compromise on a single civil rights issue - gay marriage.>>

I totally agree! I posted something along these lines at the Smirking Chimp forums, because it was being talked up on the Ed Schulz radio show. What really pisses me off is that so many gays are Republican, to add insult to injury.

Ed Schultz suggested having talks with the gays and find out where they really stand. Do they really think gay marriage is more important than all the urgent issues, like those you've described above? IMHO, we need to either 1) make the gays understand that we need to address these issues first, THEN we can address their social issues once we're in power, or 2) if they're selfish enough to want their issue to have precedence over life-and-death issues...then it's time to kiss them goodbye.

You heard me right. See, the gays are too used to having the Dems to kick around, because we're so eager to pander to them and get their vote. Meanwhile, the centrists are turned off by this pandering, and we lose votes. If the Dems told the gays to f*** off, the gays would no longer be able to play us like violins...they would have to court OUR attention, because there ain't no way the Repukes are going to coddle them the way they're accustomed to.

But as long as we let this one special-interest group hold us hostage, we'll never completely appeal to the mainstream. Yes, I believe in gay rights AND gay marriage. But I also believe that this isn't as important as the life-threatening problems facing America today. We need to prioritize, and fast.

[Hamlette]

10. it's a more difficult position that it appears

55 percent of americans oppose amending the US const.

only 51% oppose civil unions, 46% approve.


He won't push the amendment. Too risky, nothing to gain. He'll do exactly what he does with abortion. Give it lip service and do nothing.

[Azure]

11. good point (n/t)