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There is zero indication Diebold hurt Kerry in Florida

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:25 PM
Original message
There is zero indication Diebold hurt Kerry in Florida
I looked at Florida this morning, specifically the three huge pro Dem southeastern counties, all now using Diebold. If the GOP was going to steal, those were the sites. Vote totals in other Florida Diebold counties were much lower and no big Dem advantage to alter.

Bottom line: even if those three counties HAD NOT BEEN ALLOWED TO VOTE, KERRY WOULD STILL BE LOSING FLORIDA. Look for your theft elsewhere. Namely GOP voters who had the gall to show up. Kerry trails Bush by 378,000 statewide. In Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach he gained a net 363,000. My estimate prior to Tuesday was 400,000. But that was with Kerry winning the state. Obviously he will not manage that number with a statewide 47-52 deficit.

If anything, it looks like Diebold helped Kerry. He netted only 3000 less votes in those three counties combined than Gore did, even with a dramatically worse national and statewide percentage, 47-52 instead of 48-48 in Florida and 48-51 nationally and not 48.4-47.9. The countywide percentages fall smack in line with the rest of the state, Kerry very close to Gore but slightly worse.

Granted, those counties were punch cards in 2000, and we might estimate Gore lost 20,000-40,000 votes via overvotes and undervotes. But we have not heard from absentee ballots yet. Once those are included, Kerry will undoubtedly surpass Gore's net advantage in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.

Here is a quick comparison, with links below:

Broward:
Gore +210,000 67-31%
Kerry +205,000 64-35%

Dade:
Gore +39,000 53-46%
Kerry + 57,000 54-46%

Palm Beach:
Gore +117,000 62-36%
Kerry +101,000 61-39%

2000:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.president.html
2004:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/FL/P/00/county.000.html
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Kazak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. They're good, aren't they?
;)
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Cronus Protagonist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 05:38 AM
Response to Reply #1
62. Sometimes, but the offensive odor gives them away
They do go away after a while, though.

We ship same or next day by first class mail - Show your support for the president, wear a FUCK BUSH button!

http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13


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BayStateBoy Donating Member (562 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #1
83. There Should be no Diebold...Who They Hurt is Secondary
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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 04:18 PM
Response to Reply #1
86. I don't buy your premise
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 04:19 PM by SoCalDemocrat
EVoting systems are in place all around that state, not just in the three heavy Democratic districts.

Kerry was exit polling with a 2% lead over Bush as of 10pm PST on Nov 2nd, hours after the Florida polls had closed.

I won't be convinced this election was legitimate until everything has been made open and transparent and we can look over the results.

EVotimg machines in Florida were never inspected. The DNC was prevented from examining and reviewing those systems. The GOP said the software was "proprietary" and we did not have a right to look at it. They also opposed paper ballot audit trails for the EVoting systems.

This might fly in middle america, but I'm not that stupid.
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m berst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #1
92. yes
But not good enough. Electing Democratic candidates was a MEANS to the end, the end being to stop the fascists. The prime goal was to stop tyranny, not to elect Democrats. The same people who advocated this strategy of voting fascists out of office, are now telling us that the GOAL was to elect Democrats to office and that it is now time to get over it and to stop questioning the election fraud.

Very interesting as it plays out now.
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GDoyle Donating Member (219 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
2. A couple problems...
Is your lumping the Florida results into the national numbers and arguing they're not skewed based on the final result. But that is backwards, if you lumped skewed numbers into another number, its gonna skew that number.

But that isn't even my main point. Kerry should have done better than Gore in those three counties you point out. He should have done better Florida-wide. If he HAD done better and the numbers showed that, then naturally they're gonna bring the national number you dumped Florida into more in line with Gore's national number.

GDoyle
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. There is no way we can win Florida or Ohio while losing 48-51 nationwide
We're talking a deficit of 3.6 million votes nationwide, compared to Gore's +500,000.

What birthright did Kerry have to do better than Gore in Florida? That is a 50/50 partisan state that figured to mirror the national vote within 1 or 2 percent either way. It fell 2 points GOP. Ohio has always been several points more GOP leaning. Based on a lousy state economy but conservative roots, everyone I know who looked at Ohio thought it would be close to dead even partisanship this year, maybe 1 point either way. That's exactly what it was, losing 49-51 instead of 48-51. Our mistake was believing idiotic state polls that showed both Florida and Ohio significantly more Kerry than the national poll consensus.

I looked at every state. IMO there is no legit claim the race was stolen, other than what may have happened with the challenges in Ohio. Numbers from states that don't sniff Diebold or electronic machines tilted more Bush than in 2000, with only a few exceptions. Bush won New Mexico by 3 points while winning the nation by 3 points. In 2000 it was a 50/50 state when the nation was 50/50. Gore happened to win by 300 votes. I can make the same comparisons to Iowa and many other states. We can't pretend the national margin is irrelevant and claim it should not have influenced states we pursued.

I also looked county by county in Florida at downballot races to see if they lined up with presidential. Everything did, including Castor/Martinez and even ballot measures. If the GOP stole anything, they did a remarkable job. Smack down the line and even making non-Diebold numbers in other states match.
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DaveinMD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:51 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I agree
we lost. We need to do better next time.
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davepc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:54 AM
Response to Reply #3
70. thank you!
the stolen election red herring is keeping us from FIXING THE PARTY.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #3
82. That doesn't take into account suppression of Dem numbers
and inlfation of theirs. All of your analysis makes sense if you accept all the numbers as legitimate.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
5. Question
Have you looked at the early vote numbers for Florida? IIRC the early vote exit polls showed Kerry with a lead.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. I looked at the projections every day via Florida newspapers
They don't release actual early vote totals, as far as I know.

The Miami Herald did a Dade County exit poll with Kerry leading 54-41. They used that to estimate he would gain 90,000 votes if it held up. The actual number was 54-46 and he was +57,000. I don't know what to make of exit polls now. VNS was excellent but they dropped out. Other firms may not have good models.

In 2002 and 2004 the early exit polls have consistently overstated Democratic support, even in states with old fashioned voting. Yesterday the first number was 60/40 Kerry in Pennsylvania. He won by 2 points. It may have been the traditional estimate that 3% more Democrats will vote than Republicans. That held up in '96 and '00 but this year it was 37-37 in party identification.

The problem with many projections of early vote advantage is they assume a 1/1 ratio of registration to actual votes. That also caused our glee over registration numbers to be overblown. The GOP typically loses 3 or 4 percent less to crossover than we do. This year it looks even worse. Some number have 6% of GOP to Kerry and a full 11% Democrats to Bush.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. I got early vote totals from my BoE
And there was a ten percent difference between them and the Nov. 2 vote.

Ask the BoE to find out how the early votes were counted. Were they counted before Nov 2nd, or just rolled in to the totals? Get a seperate accounting done and get back to us, Mr. Expert.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #8
15. You're more than welcome to make me look stupid
Just post those precious numbers you have access to and we'll compare to actual vote totals. Please come prepared with other related info, because I'll damn sure have counter material if applicable.

BTW, anyone who was paying attention to the Florida screen could tell the early votes had already been included. Why do you think those counties suddenly jumped from 0% to 25% immediately, while others went normally from 0 to 3%, etc.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. Well, it's not hard
What do you have to counter my county's vote totals?!?!?!?

I told you my county seperated the early from the later and asked you to look into Fla's, that's all, Mr. Expert.

Oh BTW, the numbers of a jump form 0% to 25% are precincts reporting, which tells me you may not know the first damn thing about the voting count, eh?
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #20
27. I'm still awaiting your lovely numbers
What's the problem, a little tentative?

Just demonstrate how your early and ever so infallible and precise exit polls (tries not to hit the floor in a seizure of laughter) don't make sense with what was tabulated.

BTW, there are separate numbers for reporting percent of the precincts, and percent of the registered vote that has been counted. I looked at both. Same as I stayed up all night looking at the damn Alaska senate race numbers between Murkowski and Knowles. The Florida media reported last night that early votes were included first thing as each county stuck in their numbers. But you wouldn't know that, because you didn't look at more than a dozen Florida online newspapers in the wee hours, did you?

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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #27
33. Ohhh, nasty too, eh?
I gave you a breifing of my county's numbers. The early votes had a ten percent difference from the later. Trust me.

Anyway, you didn't answer my question..."The Florida media reported last night that early votes were included first thing" ... So they grouped all the numbers together, says the media.

Well, my BoE seperated the totals. I asked if Florida did the same. Look, if ya don't know, it's ok to admit it. Just a question, no biggie.

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:47 AM
Response to Reply #33
38. I lost plenty of money on Kerry and the entire planet lost
So yeah, this is not my best day.

There were questions on DU late last night regarding the early votes and whether they had been counted at all. Some here were claiming they would be added at the same time as the absentees, later in the week. Obviously, Kerry was in great shape if that were true. I checked online papers like the Miami Herald, Ft Lauderdale Sun Sentinel, Palm Beach Post, Orlando Sentinel, St Pete Times, Tallahassee Democrat, etc. Several of them indicated the early votes were already included and had been provided first. That's the sum of my knowledge. At that point I focused on Ohio and we know how that turned out.

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SoCalDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #7
87. The new exit polls are the same as VNS

VNS was just a shell company for the 6 major news agencies that did the polling. The same news agencies did the polling in 2004. Business as usual, just under a different name.
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teryang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
6. Any comments on Pinellas?
It appeared to me on election night that Pinellas went to Bush when in 80 it went to Gore. I pretty sure they are using emachines now. They used punch cards in 80.



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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. I looked at Pinellas very briefly this morning
That's a good sample because it's a high populus county. I wasn't sure they were using electronic machines.

The numbers I wrote down this morning didn't indicate any change that wasn't in line with state/national swings. Gore carried Pinellas 200,657 to 184,849 for 52-48%. Kerry and Bush were dead even, 225,534 for Bush and just 280 votes less for Kerry, 225,254. A 4 point drop from Gore to Kerry is the same as the state and country.

I'm not saying it can't happen or isn't happening. But I have yet to see blatant examples of a Diebold county/state racing against the grain of normal tendency.
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teryang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #9
17. Pinellas is electronic
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 12:08 AM by teryang
I don't know the brand. When they were introduced I went to a demo. They were showing a touch screen with a paper printout. My research indicated that the paper printout was meaningless as an audit measure.

I appreciate your reply. One of my colleages and his wife received a mail in early ballot with the wrong postage info. Printed on the envelope was a requirement for sixty cents postage. After he and his spouse mailed in their ballots with two thirty seven cent stamps they found in the literature a note which stated required postage was eighty cents and the envelope was printed in error. Is that a dirty trick or what?

Wonder if their votes were counted. Someone tried to stop me from voting in 80 in Pinellas and I almost got thrown out of the polling place for creating a disturbance.
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teryang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #9
25. A problem with your Pinellas evaluation
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 12:18 AM by teryang
Pinellas doesn't go with the national average. It is heavily democratic in national elections as a heavily populated coastal urban county it has more in common with Volusia, Broward, and Palm Beach politically.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #25
35. Admittedly, I'm just basing this on 2000 and 2004
In those presidential years it has mirrored the nation. I don't know about previous cycles, or what may have changed demographically since then.
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RBHam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:42 PM
Response to Original message
10. Please get informed...
http://blackboxvoting.org/

Voting without auditing. (Are we insane?)
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON Nov 3 2004 -- Did the voting machines trump exit polls? There’s a way to find out.

Black Box Voting (.ORG) is conducting the largest Freedom of Information action in history. At 8:30 p.m. Election Night, Black Box Voting blanketed the U.S. with the first in a series of public records requests, to obtain internal computer logs and other documents from 3,000 individual counties and townships. Networks called the election before anyone bothered to perform even the most rudimentary audit.

America: We have permission to say No to unaudited voting. It is our right.

Among the first requests sent to counties (with all kinds of voting systems -- optical scan, touch-screen, and punch card) is a formal records request for internal audit logs, polling place results slips, modem transmission logs, and computer trouble slips.

An earlier FOIA is more sensitive, and has not been disclosed here. We will notify you as soon as we can go public with it.

Such a request filed in King County, Washington on Sept. 15, following the primary election six weeks ago, uncovered an internal audit log containing a three-hour deletion on election night; “trouble slips” revealing suspicious modem activity; and profound problems with security, including accidental disclosure of critically sensitive remote access information to poll workers, office personnel, and even, in a shocking blunder, to Black Box Voting activists.

Black Box Voting is a nonpartisan, nonprofit consumer protection group for elections. You may view the first volley of public records requests here: Freedom of Information requests here

Responses from public officials will be posted in the forum, is organized by state and county, so that any news organization or citizens group has access to the information. Black Box Voting will assist in analysis, by providing expertise in evaluating the records. Watch for the records online; Black Box Voting will be posting the results as they come in. And by the way, these are not free. The more donations we get, the more FOIAs we are empowered to do. Time's a'wasting.

We look forward to seeing you participate in this process. Join us in evaluating the previously undisclosed inside information about how our voting system works.


Play a part in reclaiming transparency. It’s the only way.
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progressivebydesign Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:46 AM
Response to Reply #10
37. If you think that the whole BBV issue is bogus..
.. then WHY have they been trailed, tailed, and bothered by the Secret Service, etc.?? If there is nothing to hide, why are they being watched so closely?

AND.. if ANYONE thinks that the Diebold people, who are MAJOR Bush donors and cronies SHOULD have been able to sell those computers and techonolgy to KEY states in this next election, with NO accountability.. then you're out of your mind.

How many fucking stolen elections do we have to live through before some people get it?
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 01:03 AM
Response to Reply #37
41. I don't think it's entirely bogus, and let me quote David Boies
"I can't think of a single legitimate reason not to allow paper trails, or to insist they aren't needed. I can think of plenty of ilegitimate reasons."

That was last week on CSPAN. My feelings exactly.

This thread looked at 3 Florida counties. Not the issue in general. But we have paper trails here in Nevada. I voted on one last Thursday. We still lost the state by 20,000. I'm not sure if there will be a test to see if the paper lined up with what the machine spit out. Probably not, but it would be extremely useful and interesting.

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teryang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:51 AM
Response to Reply #41
68. the BBV paradox
Before 2000 there was a BBV promotion web site published by some experts. I don't know who financed the site. It was TheBell.com. The interesting thing about the site was that it was quite technically oriented. What I learned from studying it was that there were two essential constitutional requirements to the election process which evoting could not meet and they admitted the problem had never been resolved.

The fundamental incompatibility of the two constitutional principles was the paradox that no programmer could overcome. The first principle encompased voter identity and voter secrecy. This is accomplished by registration and encryption. The second principle is the recount or audit which guarantees reliability and due process. Encryption makes meaningful audits and recounts impossible. Once the vote is complete one can only count it, who the voter voted for can never be known. The secrecy principle precludes it. This is reflected in the ridicule and controversy over the Florida Supervisor of elections so called rules for recounts in evoting precints. Its a meaningless drill which flouts the Florida Statutes.
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moondust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
11. This was the test drive when everybody was watching.
The real fun begins next time.
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:44 PM
Response to Original message
12. that parental notification for abortions measure on the ballots
probably helped bring out the right wing voters. just like the anti gay thing in ohio. i'm guessing many of these people might not have voted if not for these things. so they went out and in the process voted for bush also.
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Randi_Listener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:44 PM
Response to Original message
13. Your little math exercise is cute.
But fucking wrong.

You left out the tens of thousands of ballot that were lost during 2000. You left out the felons list from 2000. You left out the northern counties with inflated numbers.

If you think it's about "doing better next time" you are barking up the wrong fucking tree.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #13
18. Please go back and read my initial post
I specifically mentioned the 3 big Florida counties with punch card problems that wiped out 20,000-40,000 Gore votes in 2000, via undervotes and undervotes. But I also stated we have not heard from absentees in those counties this year.

I'm sure DUers will brilliantly tell us the absentees will be fed thru a Diebold machine and altered.

Please show me WHERE Florida was stolen? Just one tiny example. Can you even name a county, other than ones mentioned in this thread? I would love to know how we're down by 378,000 votes but we really won.

Go look at the non electronic counties in Florida. The ones that vote like 3/1 or 4/1 for the GOP every cycle. I printed out the list this morning and have been reviewing it now. Nothing out of the norm. Shocking.
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Randi_Listener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. What about the non-Democratic electroic voting counties.
The counts in these counties is inflated.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:51 AM
Response to Reply #19
39. That may be true; I haven't checked
Since we lost Florida by 378,000 votes I was looking for big numbers first. It didn't make sense to find a 2000 or 3000 vote questionmark here and there and try to claim it could overcome 378,000. There are only 67 counties and only a handful of them use Diebold. Others in Florida are optical scan.
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leftofthedial Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-03-04 11:46 PM
Response to Original message
14. The logic of your argument excapes me
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #14
21. I'll make it simple
We lost nationally by 48-51. That lines up with losing Florida 47-52. Florida was expected to mirror the national vote within 1 or 2 percent, either way.

The big Diebold counties in Florida still favored Kerry by virtually the same percentage as Gore, likewise just slightly lower. There was no 5 or 10 point swing that didn't jive with the rest of the state or any downballot race.

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leftofthedial Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. thanks
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progressivebydesign Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:43 AM
Response to Reply #21
36. Saying that as the Nation goes, so goes Florida is terribly simplistic.
You mean that a state like Mississipi is the same as New York? Just becaue the numbers in Floria mirror a NATIONAL number, does NOT make it so.. because the national number is a collective of pro-Bush states, and other variables.

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #36
40. It's a tool I use and very helpful
Others are welcome to dispute it, and have. Obviously the Kerry camp did. They pursued Colorado, which was 9 points more GOP than the nation in both '96 and '00. I wouldn't have wasted a dime in Colorado and stressed that on DU. We lost Colorado by 9 points, so yeah all that cash and time was worth 3 points net. Actually, it may have saved Salazar in the senate race.

I posted the entire list of state tendencies since '88 twice and posted individual state tendencies numerous times.

Florida has moved steadily in our direction since '88, from double digits GOP compared to the nation as a whole to near even. It is still probably slightly GOP, since our GOTV and emphasis caught the Republicans off guard in 2000. This year, with both parties in full go, it trended 2 points more GOP than the country, hardly surprising.

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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #36
75. I Think You Measure The Difference State By State...
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 12:13 PM by DemocratSinceBirth
For instance if it's a 51-48 race and Bush* get 75% in Utah then there's a 24% Republican bias in Utah...

If Kerry gets 91% in DC than there's a 43% Democratic bias in DC...

In 00 Gore's FL numbers mirrored his national numbers.. In 96 Clinton did a tad bit worse and still won the state...


That's a sound political science tool...

This lack of a political science background led many here to predict a Kerry landslide...

Those of us with a Poli Sci background always knew it was more likely to be close...
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savistocate Donating Member (406 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #14
23. Yes, do get informed at above link
the I've got it all covered sinks..does not float.
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gauguin57 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:01 AM
Response to Original message
16. But what about the 1.6 absentee ballots left to be counted?
... that everyone keeps talking about? What is going on?
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RafterMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #16
29. "Everyone keeps talking about"
IS NOT A SOURCE.

There are no 1.6 million more ballots. Turnout was up 25% over 2000, a bit ahead of the national average. 1.6 million more ballots would mean an increase of 50%.

So *please*, either find a legit source or quit repeating the rumor.
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phish420 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:15 AM
Response to Original message
24. I disagree...why would they steal from democratic counties?
We are looking in the wrong place. If I were to take votes from republicans, I would take them from a highly democratic county. This way the low democratic turnout doesnt look fishy.
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RafterMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #24
31. But the story on election day
was that the counties that went Gore -- the ones listed by the poster -- were trending less toward Kerry than they did for Gore. Since this was also the area with BBV installed, it set off alarms.

This post seems to refute that.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #31
34. Thank you; that was my intention
Last night everyone was screaming for Dade County to put up similar numbers to Broward, without realizing it's adjacent but not nearly as heavily Democratic, with all the Cubans for Bush. When Dade came in just 57,000 for Kerry I saw claims of fix.

I never pretended this was an evaluation of Diebold nationwide. The subject line specifically mentioned Florida and I looked at the three big counties first. Once I get a list of every Diebold county I'll look at them also.
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Nordic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:21 AM
Response to Original message
26. What a terrible theory you present
30% of Americans voted touchscreen and you're looking at a couple of counties in Florida?

Get a clue.

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #26
32. I'm applying logic and specific numbers; otherwise I see garbage
Cynical whining.

Just give me an example. Not you. ANYONE. Show me a county/state/anything that indicates votes were stolen with some type of sensible reference point.

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RaleighNCDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #32
47. I thought that was the point --
with the BBV, there's no way to verify one way or the other, without going into the machines and parsing every line of code. How difficult would it be to programs in every 23rd Kerry vote being flipped to Bush? Or to simply vanish?

Without looking at their proprietary code, who knows?
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 03:42 AM
Response to Reply #47
50. I'm hardly pro-BBV; we need paper trails and full access to code
I like your specific and plausible example, every 23rd vote manipulated. That's exactly what I was looking for, an indication of a 4% to 8% unexplained switch.A boost or nullification, compared to historical trends, or other races downballot, or counties with similar partisanship. It just doesn't jump out at me.

I should have mentioned atop this thread I briefly crosschecked with the Castor/Martinez senate race this year and the Nelson/McCullum Florida senate race in 2000, using the same counties. The same basic presidential/senatorial relationship held in all three counties, using punch card or touch screen. Nelson ran far ahead of McCullum, much better than Castor vs. McCullum, but in the predicted relationship to the presidential vote.

I'm not dismissing the fraud potential. I don't see glaring evidence in Florida 2004, certainly not worth 378,000 votes.
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arewenotdemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 04:27 AM
Response to Reply #50
56. But why assume that senatorial race votes aren't deleted at the same?
Not saying that I think this election was stolen like we know 2000 was, given the national numbers....just curious.

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 05:05 AM
Response to Reply #56
59. That's a good point
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 05:09 AM by AwsieDooger
In fact, it makes more sense to fiddle with every partisan race than merely the marquee one.

My examination was very brief. I was looking for altered votes, much more than tossed votes. Someone else can look at statewide registration figures and detrmine if a sensible number and percentage of Democrats cast ballots in Florida. I did look up the registration percentages in the 3 counties and they did not change significantly, so I felt comfortable comparing to 2000. The crossover vote was also in line, Democrats for Bush and vice-versa. We lost ground there this year. Only 6% GOP voted for Kerry nationwide.

This thread has elongated beyond my intentions or expertise. The word zero in the header was probably overdone. And I realize cynicism can go all night. I can't. Good night.
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arewenotdemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 05:35 AM
Response to Reply #59
60. thanx for the analysis, AD
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sonicx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
28. doesn't matter either way. Noone should trust faith-based vote boxes
I like pencil and paper. Plenty of other countries manage fine with em.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 01:12 AM
Response to Reply #28
42. Agreed, I wish we had the Canadian system
As far as I know, it's still paper and pencil.

The electronic machines in Nevada are a joy to use. But I know people who make huge sports bets via shenanigans with slot machines, so when the congress started talking about making voting as safe as Nevada slot machines I didn't exactly overflow with confidence.

If we're going to have them, I think it's better with a mix of electronic and otherwise, than pure Diebold like Georgia or Maryland. In Florida there are countless comparisons to similar counties, to see if patterns hold up. I'm sure we'll see much more detailed and significant studies than my 15 minute exercise this morning.
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Zinfandel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:27 AM
Response to Original message
30. Bullshit! votes all over the country were ADDED to Bush's numbers & guess
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 12:30 AM by Zinfandel
what...there's is no paper trail to even check it out for sure, just the way the republicans wanted it. These BBV machine are owned, operated and controled by republicans...you think they play fair?

A fucking ATM machine even gives one a receipt but NOT a voting machine?

And Bush gets exactly 51%? So no one can argue with 51%!

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shelley806 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 01:32 AM
Response to Reply #30
44. Sad to say I agree with you; 51% of the country is not stupid and immoral
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arewenotdemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 05:38 AM
Response to Reply #44
61. never underestimate American stupidity and arrogance
the rest of the world knows better already
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 01:26 AM
Response to Original message
43. I capitalized for emphasis in paragraph two and messed up the point
Even if those counties had been allowed to vote TWICE, Kerry would still be losing Florida.
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Kurovski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:19 AM
Response to Original message
45. The vote tabulation has to be taken out of the hands of Diebold
S&S, et al.

PERIOD.
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m berst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:27 AM
Response to Original message
46. touchscreens look ok
But what about the Op Scan results?

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 03:27 AM
Response to Reply #46
48. That's another issue
I didn't look at them at all. Supposedly they have the lowest error rate. I mentioned David Boies in an earlier post here. He said last week the post-2000 recommendation in Florida was the entire state use optical scan.
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freedomburn Donating Member (225 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 03:30 AM
Response to Reply #48
49. Must see video on voter fraud
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Milo_Bloom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 03:51 AM
Response to Reply #48
52. Could it be more sinister than DIEbold?
I posted this in another place, but I think it needs repeating here and helps to explain some of the those bizzare numbers from the Florida counties!

Someone's post in another thread (PHISH'S, I believe) really got me thinking. He/she (sorry I don't know) said that the reason GOP votes were up is because they were being sent in from Texas and Georgia and other neighboring states.

Think how easy that scam would be. Let's say the dems wanted to organize and win Florida. You find a way to reach a LARGE number of voters in NY and CAL and convince 400,000 from each state to participate. 200,000 people from each state go to Ohio and or Florida and "move in" with a participating resident. They register to vote while they are there and go back home.

Around election time they come out for a week, vote in their "new state" and then go home. It would reduce the margin of victory in the "safe" state, but guarantee victory in the swing state because of the large influx of voters.

Getting people would be easy, especially if you use a pre-existing interested network, such as a Church.

For me this also explains why the GOP was so interested in getting challengers into polling places to challenge new voters. This didn't make that much sense to me, since it is easy for most people to prove their address and all they are doing is wasting time. HOWEVER, when you are pulling a scam like this, you are much more likely to do paranoid things like want challengers to check ID's.

The big question becomes, how can we look into this. One thought came to mind, but I don't know how possible it is. Are voter rolls public? Obviously not how they voted, but just their names?

You could just take one of the smaller counties like Liberty (3000+ registered voters) and cross check the names against local residents AND residents of Texas/Georgia and other neighboring states to see if there is a pattern. Shouldn't be TOO difficult with that many names. If this is true, you can look to larger and larger counties to see if strange matches continue.

I don't know election law (I practiced contract law), but I am fairly sure this would be a major violation, especially if you can find collusion.

Thoughts?
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 04:26 AM
Response to Reply #52
55. I'm more taken to that type of creative scam than Diebold
That's merely a family sized version of what the GOP did in 2000, remember? Flying in all those disruptors to shut down the Miami Dade recount.

Perhaps that gave them ideas toward winning 2004, under the radar. Everyone knows the cynical focus has been on Diebold for years.

It's almost like terrorism. After 9/11 we fixate what's behind us, the most obvious, in the news. Airline security. Meanwhile the opponents are possibly undertaking something on grander scale we haven't dared to envision.
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m berst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #55
88. BBV a diversion?
People have an automatic reflex suspicion of computers, and the "black box" terminology is dramatic and sounds nefarious. While everyone looks that direction, the election is stolen old-fashioned Chicago machine style. Phantom voters. Millions of brand new "fundie" zealots, whom just happen to be evenly dispersed through all of the counites in the swing states.

Meanwhile, all of the Democrats go into the "grieving process" and "get over it" mode as though the goal had been to elect Democrats rather than to save the country from tyranny.

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sherilocks Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:06 AM
Response to Reply #52
64. Voter information is public information
There are CD's that the candidates and parties buy that are used with excel. They contain everything you need to know about a voter, except of course how they voted. Race, age, sex, party, date of initial registration, which elections they voted in, etc.

The few newspapers that are cross-checking states are probably using excel to find duplicate voters between two states. This is easily done, but we have to get the state-wide lists. All the Dem campaigns have the CDs for their county.

Any Excel experts out there?
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GOTV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:47 AM
Response to Reply #52
67. At least in Ohio...
... voter rolls are public. They actually post the names and addresses of the people who have voted.
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AnIndependentTexan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 03:45 AM
Response to Original message
51. We have been Diebolded people and this is how
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DavidFL Donating Member (236 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 03:55 AM
Response to Original message
53. I'm not sure how to use the data from my county...
so if anyone who knows how to use these numbers wants to, have at it. I'm in Pasco County, FL, which is more Republican. We use the ES&S touchscreen machines with no paper trails.

2000 (using the certified recount totals):

Gore 69,576 (50.35%)
Bush 68,607 (49.65%)

(I guess CNN didn't include votes for third-party candidates in their recount totals?)

2004:

Kerry: 84,729 (44.39%)
Bush: 103,195 (54.07%)

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 04:17 AM
Response to Reply #53
54. That's a much more dramatic change than the larger touchscreen counties
50,000 more votes and more than a 10% switch toward Bush. That was the type of thing I was looking for in South Florida. Bush at maybe 52-48 would have been more expected.

I don't have time now, but it would be useful to check out the registration and demographic changes since 2000 in Pasco. That's a full 36% jump in votes, very unusual.
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DavidFL Donating Member (236 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 04:53 AM
Response to Reply #54
58. Voter reg stats for 2000 & 2004
2000 (as of 10/23/2000):

Republican 90,201 (40.68%)
Democratic 88,876 (40.08%)
Other 42,680 (19.24%)

Total 221,757

http://www.pascovotes.com/pasnote5.htm

2004 (as of 11/3/2004):

Republican 107,005 (40.07%)
Democratic 99,621 (37.30%)
Other 60,438 (22.63%)

Total 267,064

http://www.pascovotes.com/
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #54
94. Maybe YOU should check out the registration in Dade, Broward & Palm Beach
Many new Dems. And quite a few Cubans deserting Bush in Miami. And so why did the percentages stay constant?

Take the damn wool out of your eyes.

It was stolen. And to do it with BBV, they needed this: NO PAPER TRAIL.

They fought like hell against it. Teresa LePore (the Butterfly election chief in Palm Beach) went from hanging chads to invisible bytes.

Awsie, you speak with authority. It appears you know what you are talking about.

But you are still wrong.
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lockdown Donating Member (576 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 04:44 AM
Response to Original message
57. It wasn't BBV, the problem is Democratic "hyper-awareness"
LePore said the touch screens "worked great" Tuesday. There were scattered complaints from voters who said they tried to select Democrat John Kerry and instead saw President Bush's name appear on their review screens. Voters were able to change the selection before casting their ballots.

Charles discounted the possibility that a calibration error caused the phenomenon, saying such a problem would have also been apparent with more voters and in other races.

Instead, Charles suggested, some voters in a Democratic-dominated county known for past voting foul-ups may have had a "hyper-awareness" to such a miscue.


http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/News/Politics/Florida/03FloridaPOLFL02110404.htm

Erm, yes. Yes, that makes perfect sense. And according to this article, Kerry voters suffered from hyper-awareness on multiple types of voting machines, and their foolish hyper-awareness always flipped their vote to Bush. Idiots! Have they never heard of hyper-awareness and it's troublesome (but consistent) effect on electronics?

"A number of people who thought they were voting for Kerry, when the screen came up it showed they were voting for Bush," said Cindy Cohn, legal director for the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) which is a member of the coalition. "We've seen it across several voting systems, not just one machine."

snip
Because of the 2000 election meltdown in Florida, election watchers closely monitored polling places in that state. Matt Zimmerman, an EFF voting attorney in Miami, Florida said there have been multiple reports of voting machine problems in Florida where incorrect candidates had been selected by e-voting machines and voters had problems going back and changing their votes. He said most of these malfunctions occurred with the Sequoia Edge machine in Palm Beach County were voters were presented with preselected choices on the entire electronic ballot which were often skewed away from Democratic candidates.


http://www.counterpunch.org/harrison11032004.html


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CHIMO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:03 AM
Response to Original message
63. Numbers
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 06:58 AM by CHIMO
Did some simple calcs based on the numbers in the table below.

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

I have not checked the validity of the numbers but a post below for one county matches.

Assumptions:

Expected Votes in each county for Dems are proportional to the percentage of registered voters for the Dems.
ie Dem/(Dem + Rep) x Total Vote

Population using touch screen is the same as that as Op Scanners.

Using the above assumptions:
The ratio of Expected votes to actual votes for touch screen is 1.02
The ratio of Expected votes to actual votes for op scanners is 1.22

Assumptions are wrong.

If one plots expected vs actual for the touch screen the plot looks fairly linear for both the touch screen and the op scanner(The op scanner appears to have outliers for the two largest vales but eyeballing it looks OK?)

From this I would say that the assumption that the populations are the same is incorrect. I do not know the way the machines were distributed. Is this an expected item "That the populations are not the same?"

Edit: I can not get the equation to show correctly
Edit: op scannerrs
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CHIMO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #63
74. Any Reason
For the difference here. Are there any polling numbers that would justify the above divergence?
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sherilocks Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:32 AM
Response to Original message
65. From the Daytona Beach News-Journal
http://www.news-journalonline.com/

Volusia county uses optical scan. This is just another interesting tidbit.

"Bush victory ends Volusia's winning streak"

Kerry won in Volusia County by a slim margin," while the incumbent coasted to convincing victories in Florida and the nation."

Volusia County has picked the winner for the last 30 years, including Al Gore in 2000.
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teryang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:56 AM
Response to Reply #65
71. Oops, there it is!
The naked disturbing truth. Thanks for the link.
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teryang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #65
73. Volusia county mail in ballots had improper postage
...instructions. Wonder what happened to those ballots?
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jdj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #65
89. optical scan votes are counted electronically.
from inside the machine, too.

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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:45 AM
Response to Original message
66. Diebold goes WAY beyond touchscreens...
The central tabulating software, called GEMS, is now the main suspect.

www.blackboxvoting.com
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The Flaming Red Head Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:53 AM
Response to Original message
69. Just like Halliburton their stock price is going up.


Not many companies can claim to have successfully rigged a presidential election.
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 06:58 AM
Response to Original message
72. After reviewing the data there is a single rational conclusion
The Democrats got their asses whupped.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #72
78. All These DUers In Denial Remind Me Of The Ghost Dancers..
When the destruction of the native American was virtually complete some Native Americans withdrew from reality and created an alternate reality of their own... They did the Ghost Dance in the hope that they could resurrect their forefathers to smite the white man...

I'm getting the chills at the poignancy of that story...


Their undulating Ghost Dance spooked the calvary and got them shot...


We are creating alternate realities for ourselves here..

We lost...

Better to come up with a victory strategy than look for boogeymen...
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Trahurn Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 12:32 PM
Response to Original message
76. Gullible As They Come
Sir you are as gullible as any Bush supporter as there is no way you can with any certainty declare DIEBOLD had no effect on a Kerry loss in Florida and I think you have some brass cahones to even presume such as your figures are not even close to being convincing or at least to me. First of all that is precisely what they want you to conclude. We have never used E-voting like this in a presidential election and you also forget the promise the DIEBOLD executives made to Bush. That being they promised to deliver him a victory. How and why does anyone who is supposed to remain neutral on something like this make such a prediction? You may be able to sucker in someone else but not me. DIEBOLD was a "gimme" for Bush just as they predicted it would. I tell you there are some pretty self appointed "know-it-alls on this forum. The minority I assure but certainly enough.
I better stop before I say something I regret.
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Stagger lee Donating Member (79 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 01:34 PM
Response to Original message
77. Bay county
Okay, could someone from the area tell me how this happened.

2004
Bush 53,305
Kerry 21,034

Registered Dems and Reps
Rep - 45,104
Dem - 39,919

Did that many dems really leave kerry?

2000 results
bush 38,682
gore 18,373

Bush gained 15,000 votes, Kerry only improved by 2,800??!!
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Stagger lee Donating Member (79 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #77
79. Well, must be a lot of sophisticated voters in
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 01:46 PM by Stagger lee
Bay county because they managed to split their votes and elect a Democrat as superintendent of schools. Almost all of the other elected posts went heavily Republican. What makes this guy so special? It is odd that the superindentant of schools position would engender such a radical change in partisan voting.

Jim Barr - (REP) 29058 38.64%
James E. McCalister - (DEM) 43758

http://www.bayvotes.org/
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CHIMO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #77
81. Optical Scanners
The locations using optical scanners had an overall Dem vote that is about 20% lower than those using the touch screens. When compared between registered people.
Please see my post above.
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notadmblnd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 01:51 PM
Response to Original message
80. Analyze this.
Copy and paste these figures into an excel spread sheet then get bck to me on the evidence.


PERCENT CHANGE ACTUAL RESULTS REGISTERED Total EXPECTED_VOTES Reported
COUNTY Voting Machine REP DEM REP DEM TOTAL_VOTES %REP %DEM Registered REP DEM VoterTurnout
Broward E-Touchscreen 0.285860064 0.274604841 236794 441733 686715 0.268163986 0.5046703 1058069 184152.2313 346564.6653 0.64902667
Charlotte E-Touchscreen 0.240074219 0.34567895 44402 34227 79730 0.449089695 0.319010966 113808 35805.92138 25434.74431 0.700565865
Collier E-Touchscreen 0.224156817 0.400021685 82493 43277 126916 0.530962276 0.243560024 168673 67387.60824 30911.66406 0.75243815
Hillsborough E-Touchscreen 0.511668824 0.109824037 241630 210892 455970 0.350556422 0.416744339 621201 159843.2118 190022.9162 0.734013628
Indian River E-Touchscreen 0.17299219 0.300249343 36744 23850 61087 0.512793503 0.300270691 81643 31325.01674 18342.63568 0.748220913
Lake E-Touchscreen 0.266890431 0.135555062 73971 47963 123269 0.473662018 0.342644898 161269 58387.84331 42237.49389 0.76436885
Lee E-Touchscreen 0.242209826 0.336643052 114153 76874 193326 0.475337529 0.297490957 304937 91895.10308 57512.73678 0.633986692
Martin E-Touchscreen 0.088275037 0.514680573 41303 30149 72334 0.524687174 0.275175253 98857 37952.72207 19904.52676 0.73170337
Miami-Dade E-Touchscreen 0.315737308 0.253844691 326362 383032 713022 0.347878402 0.428438394 1058801 248044.954 305486.0006 0.673423996
Nassau E-Touchscreen 0.480036828 -0.289119076 23726 8543 32656 0.490895461 0.368002321 41353 16030.68218 12017.48381 0.789688777
Palm Beach E-Touchscreen 0.204275169 0.348189471 174233 275030 452061 0.32004249 0.451265463 729575 144678.7283 203999.5164 0.619622383
Pasco E-Touchscreen 0.348415877 0.18939826 103195 84729 190861 0.400975283 0.37323949 265974 76530.54355 71236.86222 0.717592697
Pinellas E-Touchscreen 0.26532361 0.308113375 222630 222103 448875 0.391973455 0.378254079 590989 175947.0845 169788.7998 0.759531903
Sarasota E-Touchscreen 0.116445867 0.450276043 104446 88225 195183 0.479305214 0.311672874 240592 93552.22955 60833.24648 0.811261389
Sumter E-Touchscreen 0.429069518 -0.109280261 19794 11583 31835 0.435086247 0.408484071 40523 13850.97068 13004.09039 0.785603238
3863840 5576264 0.69290837
PERCENT CHANGE ACTUAL RESULTS REGISTERED EXPECTED_VOTES
COUNTY Voting Machine REP DEM REP DEM TOTAL_VOTES %REP %DEM REP DEM
Alachua Op-Scan-Precinct 0.541581899 0.111160084 47615 62348 111022 0.278207055 0.505401874 142358 30887.10371 56110.72687 0.779878897
Baker Op-Scan-Precinct 2.204426509 -0.683837632 7738 2180 9955 0.242570032 0.69263599 12887 2414.784667 6895.191278 0.772483899
Bay Op-Scan-Precinct 0.611443643 -0.283353949 53305 21034 74890 0.441701624 0.391916301 101315 33079.0346 29350.61176 0.739179786
Bradford Op-Scan-Precinct 1.458438359 -0.513113191 7553 3244 10851 0.283132939 0.614020787 14721 3072.275525 6662.739556 0.737110251
Brevard Op-Scan-Precinct 0.286817046 0.137243805 152838 110153 265075 0.448069901 0.365404574 338195 118772.1289 96859.61753 0.783793374
Calhoun Op-Scan-Precinct 4.332242659 -0.569118639 3780 2116 5961 0.118922156 0.823832335 8350 708.8949701 4910.864551 0.713892216
Citrus Op-Scan-Precinct 0.370969165 0.082543039 39496 29271 69457 0.414771976 0.389292796 90780 28808.81715 27039.10972 0.765113461
Clay Op-Scan-Precinct 0.34737168 -0.091691993 61813 18887 81144 0.565374211 0.256255636 106464 45876.72498 20793.6073 0.762173129
Columbia Op-Scan-Precinct 1.140985937 -0.4313483 16753 8029 24984 0.31319643 0.565136223 34282 7824.899597 14119.3634 0.728778951
DeSoto Op-Scan-Precinct 1.283853423 -0.305560055 5510 3910 9493 0.254144017 0.593114556 14901 2412.589155 5630.436481 0.637071337
Dixie Op-Scan-Precinct 3.580820952 -0.607289249 4433 1959 6440 0.150268706 0.774596941 9676 967.7304671 4988.404299 0.665564283
Duval Op-Scan-Precinct 0.564960028 -0.099112262 218476 157624 378330 0.369002838 0.462467149 515202 139604.8436 174965.1964 0.734333329
Escambia Op-Scan-Precinct 0.490551309 -0.170977542 93311 48207 142895 0.438095589 0.406936623 189833 62601.66923 58149.20878 0.752740567
Flagler Op-Scan-Precinct 0.252375333 0.266480931 19624 18563 38455 0.407474293 0.381150676 47068 15669.42392 14657.14923 0.817009433
Franklin Op-Scan-Precinct 2.681097958 -0.476670666 3472 2400 5930 0.159055118 0.77335958 7620 943.1968504 4586.02231 0.778215223
Gadsden Op-Scan-Precinct 1.657066724 -0.158437547 6236 14610 20948 0.112036899 0.828745722 26884 2346.948966 17360.56539 0.779199524
Gilchrist Op-Scan-Precinct 1.311587114 -0.509312352 4930 2015 7007 0.304371887 0.586054234 9035 2132.733813 4106.482014 0.775539568
Glades Op-Scan-Precinct 1.328193427 -0.356068756 1983 1434 3434 0.248029515 0.648499078 5963 851.7333557 2226.945833 0.575884622
Gulf Op-Scan-Precinct 1.488015983 -0.508003508 4797 2398 7259 0.265607147 0.671444895 9627 1928.042277 4874.01849 0.754025138
Hamilton Op-Scan-Precinct 2.688708197 -0.436205101 2786 2252 5065 0.14911707 0.788620013 7645 755.2779595 3994.360366 0.662524526
Hardee Op-Scan-Precinct 1.606741382 -0.535194023 5047 2147 7245 0.267237234 0.637561304 10399 1936.133763 4619.131647 0.696701606
Hendry Op-Scan-Precinct 0.91253304 -0.283030173 5756 3960 9774 0.307921139 0.56509566 17144 3009.621209 5523.244984 0.570111993
Hernando Op-Scan-Precinct 0.282190866 0.189548048 40137 35006 75832 0.412800029 0.38806814 109656 31303.45181 29427.98322 0.691544466
Highlands Op-Scan-Precinct 0.367189248 -0.030985282 20475 12986 33687 0.444562616 0.397816405 60176 14975.98086 13401.24124 0.559807897
Holmes Op-Scan-Precinct 2.619165398 -0.700119292 6410 1810 8298 0.213440175 0.727372063 10982 1771.126571 6035.733382 0.755600073
Jackson Op-Scan-Precinct 1.786871248 -0.467033238 12092 7529 19750 0.219691945 0.715270101 27138 4338.915911 14126.58449 0.72776181
Jefferson Op-Scan-Precinct 1.126542132 -0.235514633 3298 4134 7477 0.207419355 0.723225806 9300 1550.874516 5407.559355 0.803978495
Lafayette Op-Scan-Precinct 4.593003562 -0.693257935 2460 845 3325 0.132281272 0.828498492 4309 439.8352286 2754.757484 0.771640752
Leon Op-Scan-Precinct 0.40208927 0.087104176 47902 79591 128316 0.26625463 0.570574009 171182 34164.72905 73213.77453 0.749588158
Levy Op-Scan-Precinct 1.265478504 -0.389030039 10408 6073 16649 0.275942875 0.597028784 22617 4594.172923 9939.932219 0.736127692
Liberty Op-Scan-Precinct 7.122853567 -0.598745212 1927 1070 3021 0.078527607 0.882699387 4075 237.2319018 2666.634847 0.741349693
Madison Op-Scan-Precinct 2.388199667 -0.38710972 4195 4048 8306 0.149063407 0.795180723 11371 1238.120658 6604.771084 0.730454665
Manatee Op-Scan-Precinct 0.279541274 0.291161274 81237 61193 143469 0.442528766 0.330341535 191635 63489.15948 47393.76964 0.748657604
Marion Op-Scan-Precinct 0.347660816 0.032434023 81235 57225 139581 0.431853335 0.397097532 184257 60278.52039 55427.27065 0.757534313
Monroe Op-Scan-Precinct 0.272844551 0.375975653 19457 19646 39517 0.38682679 0.361309535 51377 15286.23427 14277.86891 0.769157405
Okaloosa Op-Scan-Precinct 0.357638603 -0.127205846 69320 19276 89288 0.571848888 0.247350045 127455 51059.2435 22085.39083 0.70054529
Okeechobee Op-Scan-Precinct 0.92585113 -0.277076246 6975 5150 12184 0.29725667 0.584688892 18627 3621.775272 7123.849466 0.654104257
Orange Op-Scan-Precinct 0.414563744 0.239396504 191389 192030 385547 0.350927274 0.401866206 531774 135298.9576 154938.3102 0.725020403
Osceola Op-Scan-Precinct 0.577230808 0.187671733 32812 30295 63440 0.327924811 0.402078973 129487 20803.55001 25507.89006 0.489933352
Polk Op-Scan-Precinct 0.504491745 -0.041581395 123457 85923 210642 0.389565905 0.425607455 295742 82058.94145 89650.80557 0.71224919
Putnam Op-Scan-Precinct 1.106109706 -0.306015667 18303 12407 30960 0.280698659 0.577452364 45344 8690.430487 17877.92519 0.682780522
Santa Rosa Op-Scan-Precinct 0.383811638 -0.224859255 51952 14635 67175 0.558878776 0.281063523 96359 37542.68179 18880.44215 0.697132598
Seminole Op-Scan-Precinct 0.302217316 0.279242429 107913 76802 185762 0.446101231 0.323193633 241230 82868.65691 60037.09559 0.770061767
St.Johns Op-Scan-Precinct 0.287315754 0.08005964 58802 26215 85699 0.533004971 0.283221599 109635 99012.06943 52611.81066 0.78167556
St.Lucie Op-Scan-Precinct 0.285659737 0.264781098 38919 43367 82798 0.365608078 0.414118056 137951 67916.08783 76927.3984 0.600198621
Suwannee Op-Scan-Precinct 1.631041214 -0.550255924 11145 4513 15785 0.268353853 0.635704514 21930 4235.965572 10034.59576 0.719790242
Taylor Op-Scan-Precinct 2.370562019 -0.529910918 5466 3049 8580 0.189007926 0.755944604 11481 1621.688006 6486.004703 0.747321662
Union Op-Scan-Precinct 2.974193698 -0.645467365 3396 1251 4675 0.18278352 0.754778423 7063 854.5129548 3528.589126 0.661900042
Volusia Op-Scan-Precinct 0.338060567 0.257093352 100209 106853 208410 0.359345659 0.40785016 309930 74891.22873 85000.05179 0.672442164
Wakulla Op-Scan-Precinct 1.378036188 -0.377428491 6777 4896 11763 0.24227072 0.668550273 15396 2849.830475 7864.156859 0.764029618
Walton Op-Scan-Precinct 0.462035892 -0.295011722 17526 6205 23939 0.500747475 0.367666351 32777 11987.39381 8801.564786 0.730359703
Washington Op-Scan-Precinct 1.796456628 -0.580998631 7367 2911 10363 0.254212607 0.670411206 14421 2634.405242 6947.471327 0.718604812
3419852 4725026 0.723774218

Note: These numbers were calculated when the Florida vote was 98.6% in.

Explanation of What these numbers are, and how they were calculated:

PERCENT CHANGE for DEM, for example, = (Actual DEM Vote - Expected DEM Vote) / (Expected DEM Vote)

This is a simple percent change measure taught in highschool mathematics.

EXPECTED_VOTES REP, for example, was calculated by multiplying the percentage of registered REP times the total number of voters who voted in each county on Tuesday.

EXPECTED votes would normally vary from the ACTUAL votes due to increased voter turnout or other factors. What seems very odd in these numbers is that the increase in ACTUAL votes over EXPECTED votes for REPs has a striking pattern of being so much higher than that for DEMs in counties using optical scan voting machines.

SOURCES:
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/ for registered voters by county and election results by county
http://vevo.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/ for voting machine type by county
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Stagger lee Donating Member (79 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #80
85. These numbers are amazing...
we must look at other states to see if we get similar results.
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DancingBear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 03:10 PM
Response to Original message
84. Here's a simple reason as to why analysis fails the smell test

2000 - Bush +537

2004 - Bush +373,000

Look at those numbers. Just look at them, sans newspapers or spreadsheets or voting patterns.

Explain to me in any way you can what George W .Bush DID ON HIS OWN
in the last four years to generate those numbers.

Those numbers staring at you in black and white are why I believe he stole Florida and Ohio.

As for the theory that Florida mirrors the national vote, if you thought of that, don't you think the guys WHO CHEAT FOR A LIVING did too?

Not to disparge your work, but I feel it is operating from a premise that is distorted to begin with, hence can not be relied upon.

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jdj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #84
93. that is what every one is missing
"if you thought of that, don't you think the guys WHO CHEAT FOR A LIVING did too?"

no, they would tell a bunch of lies to start a war that kills 100,000 so they can make billions of dollars, then allow an election to proceed unaltered and lose said billions because of their immense respect for the democratic process?

:eyes:
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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
90. ONLY 3000 LESS, even when all the 20,000 poor old Jewish folks
actually DIDN't manage to cast their ballots for the wrong candidate this time?

Bull Fuckin' Shit

ONLY 3000 LESS that Gore WHEN everyone in those three counties hate the fuck out of Shrub?

Bull Fuckin' Shit
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jdj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-04-04 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
91. look I said months ago they would not be so stupid to fuck
Edited on Thu Nov-04-04 07:22 PM by jdjkkse
with florida twice.

next??

the purge was completely twisted, as usual though, but they knew that the only people who would care about that were the individuals purged.

edit: and CNN is twisted too. bad source.
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