IT'S NOT OVER!!! IMORTANT KOS POST!!!!

[spotbird]

Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221
If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.

And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.

http://www.dailykos.com/user/kos

[gasperc]

1. where's Gulianni getting his numbers!!!!!!!!!

he's talking about "only" 140,000 votes left

is he lying through his teeth to force a concession out of Kerry

fucking cheating liars


and what about the 1 million+ in Florida that are apparently outstanding!!!!!!!!

[juajen]

2. I believe Blackwell accounced that there were 175,000 provisional

ballots, but what about the absentee ballots and alternate ballots, whatever that is. Maybe someone can fill me in? What does this new figure on provisional ballots give us? I'm horrible at math.

[stepnw1f]

3. Thank You Spotbird!!!!

This is not over........

[eaprez]

4. There are 130,000 provisional ballots.....

....they all won't be counted because not all will be deemed eligible to vote, Kerry won't win 90% of them because he didn't win 90% of the vote. Best he could hope for is 65,000. There are 10,000 outstanding absentee ballots - even if he got 100% he's still short.

[Florida_Geek]

5. I do not know Ohio law but

in Florida Absentee ballots still have a couple days to come in and be counted IF they are postmarked before the election.

[eaprez]

8. Ten Days here in OHio.....

...and they know how many they sent out so they know how many they can get back....10,000 is what they're saying are still outstanding.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

10. I don't understand your math

You're assuming the provisional ballots would be split 50-50, and half of the 130k is the best Kerry can hope for. But doesn't it really depend on where the bulk of the provisional ballots originated? If they're evenly distributed statewide, you're probably right, but if they're concentrated in areas with a high number of Democrats Kerry could pick up a substantial number of votes. Enough to win, I don't know.

I, for one, will wait for the ballots to be counted and for all court challenges to be resolved, of for Kerry to concede. Then and only then will I accept (regretfully) that four more years of this ship is on the way.

[eaprez]

11. The majority of the provisionals are from majority Repub areas......and

Kerry didn't get 90% in any of the counties in ohio. I'm not saying Kerry should give in either.....I'm just saying if theres not more than provisional ballots to go on the math isn't in our favor.

[kayell]

6. NO concession, NO surrender!

[Kber]

7. Good info

I copies into an e-mail for friends and family. The more people who know this the better.

KB

[Catfight]

9. We must stay the course and ensure every vote is counted. Do not

stop until we at least get every vote counted, do not concede, make sure every vote counts. I don't care if Kerry gets called every name in the book, he'll never have another shot anyway, you don't give up in the last mile, EVERY vote must be counted, that's what he promised, keep his promise!

[jeanmarc]

12. 85% number?

I'd love to know where that comes from. It would be great if we had proof of it.

[Shopaholic]

13. 1 Million Votes (absentee) uncounted in Florida

This is not over