Analysis on latest Gallup poll of Wesley Clark

[wyldwolf]

The internals of the new Gallup poll aren't looking so hot for Dean. Clark has eaten into his lead with both sexes. In mid-December, men chose Dean over Clark by a 33:16% margin. Now men are choosing Clark over Dean, 30:25%, that's a 14% gain for Clark and an 8% loss for Dean (which points to Clark taking support from other candidates as well). Also interesting is Clark has gained 6% among women, while Dean has dropped two percent, so now the gap lies at 24:13%. Dean's appeal to women is interesting and, to me, unexplainable. I would think that his rough persona would be better suited for men, but he's strongest among women. If anyone's got some ideas on that, I'd love to hear them.

Also important is Clark's net favorable rating among Democrats has reached +30%, 7% better than Dean's (and better than anyone else in the race). This makes Clark a likely choice for Democrats whose candidate drops out of the race (Gephardt if he doesn't win Iowa) and thus leads me to believe that his support is slightly understated now.

Lastly, Clark has net +11% favorability among all voters (we're now including Republicans and Independents) while Dean has a net -11%, a 22% difference and a worrying indicator of bipartisan appeal for Dean. While Bush stands at +30%, favorables for a President tend to be less of an indicator than they do for the challenger, as they can be much weaker and more closely tied to that day's stories and economic numbers. In essence, they tend to measure how people feel at that moment rather than whether or not they'd want to reelect the incumbent.

All in all, this is damn good news for the Clark campaign, and if they stay positive while Dean goes negative, the favorables should only increase and their likelihood of being everyone's second choice will skyrocket. Their new tax plan is forcing the Dean campaign to propose additional tax reforms and Dean is now limiting his media availability in order to not say things the other candidates can jump on. It's going to be interesting to see how the media reports Clark as an insurgent against Dean, but as things stand now, the General is looking damn good as we move into the primaries.

http://www.pandagon.net/mtarchives/000483.html

[ClarkGraham2004]

1. It's because Clark is starting to become better known.

The only reason Dean ever beat him in these areas in the first place is because of name recognition. The more well known Clark gets, the higher his numbers go.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

7. For lots of people - to know him is to love him...

n/t

[jpgpenn]

2. Great Post

Thanks:yourock:

[mzmolly]

3. Thanks to the media who has trashed Dean and built up Clark.

Wont be long before they start in on the General though, you can expect those polling numbers to slide back down when they do.

[wyldwolf]

4. Sour grapes

[Jerseycoa]

5. Heh

Funny pic :D

[mzmolly]

10. Nope, Clark is dipping again, and Dean is going back up.

Clark has *soft* support. I'm not sour. I don't think Clark will last. They're already (starting) to call him a kook. Tune into Faux news tonight. They hate Dean, they hate Clark.... only one of those two man can stand the test of scrutiny, Dean. :P

[wyldwolf]

11. Proof?

?

[jumptheshadow]

17. That's old news

They were shoveling out that "wacko military guy" tripe when Clark first entered the campaign. It didn't stick then, and it won't now.

[funky_bug]

6. Correct me if I'm wrong

but they already have begun attacking the general. Interestingly enough, his rating continues to climb.

But I do not begrudge them their attacks. In fact, I welcome them, as should you, as a Dean supporter. If we can get these attacks out now, we have time to put them to bed before Rove rolls up his sleeves for Bush.

[mzmolly]

13. You are hearby corrected.

The Clark scrutiny has only just begun, he started HOT and dropped like a cold potato in the polls until recently when he spent all his time in NH. When the media started in on him last week, his numbers took a slight dip. All the campaigns will be dishing on the General now that he's competing again.

He has *gaffes* that make Dean look like Clinton. Tune in to Faux news tonight, you'll see. ;)

[boxster]

15. That doesn't explain his recent climb in national polls.

He's closing in on Dean nationally, as well. Spending all of his time in NH does not account for that, does it?

The slight dip Clark took last week was within the MOE of nearly every poll I saw. Trends are more important than a couple days here or there, and the trend in NH is unquestionably: Dean down, Clark up.

By the way, some of us would rather not watch Fox News, thank you very much.

[KittyWampus]

8. You Mean Shelton-Sweater-Republican-Shelton-ProWar-Crazy Clark?

Who the RNC didn't even have on their webpage after 3 months in the race?
Who Judy Woodruff didn't mention for over a month?
Who's Tax Proposal gets lumped into some article about Kerry doing something or other?
Who's rise in the NH polls was ignored until last week?

You mean "He's not going anywhere" Clark?

How exactly did the media build Clark Up? I would LOVE for some examples.

[1songbird]

14. Thank you for pointing these things out.

The Press has tried to ignore Clark basically. He has not been given a free pass by the press by any means.

[boxster]

16. Built up?

What news have you been watching because it certainly isn't anything I've seen. Clark was bashed nearly from day one, both by the media and by Dean ("he was a Republican until 25 days ago.")

In fact, I'd say that over time, the reverse of your argument is true. Dean was anointed the winner by the media (and many Dean supporters) a couple of months ago. What the media forgot is that there are other candidates that have a say in that outcome.

Besides, Dean certainly bears responsibility for some of the negative media attention he's received thanks to his gaffes.

[Kahuna]

18. All they have to attack Clark with is contrived lies. And we will..

confront every lie they throw out.

[windansea]

9. good post wyldwolf

serious attention is being paid to these numbers

[pscot]

12. Feb. 7th will tell us a lot

My guess is that Clark will run very well in S.Carolina, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arizona. He may be running in front after Feb.7.