Appealing to independents: Dean v. Clark

[Dookus]

From the ARG NH poll's analysis:

Beyond Ballot Preference - January 17, 2004
The following table summarizes the changes in ballot preference (in percentage points) by party for the tracking ending January 9 to the tracking ending January 16. Democrats represent 70% of the total sample and undeclared voters represent 30% of the total sample.

For example, in the tracking ending January 16, 19% of likely Democratic primary voters registered as Democrats say they will vote for Wesley Clark. This is unchanged from the January 9 results (0 change - Clark was at 19% on January 9 among Democrats). Among undeclared voters, 29% say they will vote for Clark. This is an increase of 5 percentage points from January 9 (Clark was at 24% on January 9 among undeclared voters).

Among Democrats, 33% say they will vote for Howard Dean, which is down 2 percentage points from January 9 (Dean was at 35% on January 9). Among undeclared voters, 15% say they will vote for Dean, which is down 21 percentage points from January 9 (Dean was at 36% on January 9).

***************************************

In short, it says that 29& of independents would vote for Clark, compared to 15% who would vote for Dean.

This reflects what I've maintained for a long time - that Clark is much more appealing to the center, despite the fact that he's to the left of Dean on most issues.

[Cuban_Liberal]

1. I'm not certain that can be extrapolated to a national trend.

:)

[Dookus]

2. Nope... neither can I

but it's certainly an indicator.

[KaraokeKarlton]

3. not really

NH Independents are not really representative to national Independents. Both Dean and Clark can attract centrist and right leaning Independents, but Dean has a much stronger appeal for left leaning Independents and Greens. Clark's previous affiliations make it highly unlikely the left leaning Independents and Greens would vote for him in large numbers. NH Independents are far more conservative than the rest of the country, for the most part. Dean has a far broader appeal with the widest range of Independent voters, and they will vote for Dean over Bush in the general election. Half of those would likely vote for Nader or third party if Clark were the nominee.

[Dookus]

6. what's your basis for believing this?

THIS left-leaning person recognizes Clark as decidedly to the left of Dean. Why does Dean have a broader appeal than Clark?

You really think half of independent voters would vote third-party if Clark were the nominee? I see no evidence for that.

[KaraokeKarlton]

13. I think half of left leaning Independents won't support Clark if he's

nominated. He's also not as appealing to 2nd Amendment Independents as Dean is. There is a considerable amount of distrust for Clark because of his past affiliations. He doesn't have any political record to examine and he's got too many things about him that would lead one to believe that he might not really be running with the right party. Too much to be suspicious of, in other words.

[Dookus]

14. again...

do you have ANY data to back that up, or is it your opinion?

At least I cited SOMETHING.

[KaraokeKarlton]

15. It's mostly what I've seen on the ground at meetups and talking to people

I'm also using common sense. If Greens turned their back on Gore over what many consider to be petty issues, what makes you think they will be any more forgiving of General Clark? They won't be. Some won't be forgiving of Dean, either, unless they actually take a closer look at his record in Vermont rather than reading the nonsense accusing Dean of not being good on the environment. Clark's got more things about him that those kind of voters will turn their back on him over than any of the other candidates...even more than Lieberman.

[Dookus]

16. ok... so it's your opinion.

My opinion is backed up by poll data.

And I think a lot of greens would be turned off by Dean's record on the environment and deregulation.

I will also argue that the number of centrist independents far outweighs the number of far-left independents.

Clark appeals more to the middle, despite being to the left of Dean. I think that's a winning combo.

[Dookus]

17. also...

I hardly think the people you m eet at Dean meetups are representative of the electorate at large.

[Capn Sunshine]

4. It's interesting though

I find it backs your hypothesis with the qualifier that this was in the Northeast.

In the south southwest and West, those numbers change drastically. Dean pols well with indies there.

New Hampshirians (that what they call themselves?) are a notoriously fickle lot howsomeever.

[patricia92243]

5. But the rest of the story is "who can beat Bush". I don't think that

a General who has never held ANY elected office would be able to win the Presidency as his first forray into politics. The last general elected was Ike and that was along time ago

[Dookus]

7. well that's a separate issue entirely

and naturally, I disagree.

It would be just as easy for me to claim that the last time we elected a president from Vermont was in 1924 (Calvin Coolidge) AND he was the incumbent at the time!

We've elected more generals than Vermonters. But I don't think that's a very compelling argument for electability of either candidate.

[MariaS]

8. Of the four presidents

who won the White House without having run for any public office before, three were wartime generals — Zachary Taylor, Ulysses Grant and Dwight Eisenhower. And your right it was a long time ago for Ike, I know because he was the Prez when I was born but I think that the time is right for a proven leader and especially one who hasn't been tainted by the political process, to step in especially during a time of War. Howard Dean is called an outsider which I never quite understood because being a Gov. for over a decade sure qualifies as being a politician to me. I for one am sick sick sick of politics as usual. I think if an Independent like me sees the benefit of someone like Clark that others will to.

[cache]

12. Similar times

Truman was the first President of the Cold War, and Ike was elected to fix Truman's blunder in Korea. On 9/11 we entered into a new 30 years war, and Clark will be elected to fix Bush's blunder into Iraq. History does repeat itself - occasionally.

[MIMStigator]

9. Dean can't win

eom

[Dookus]

10. well...

I fail to see the point of posts like that. I'm trying to foster a discussion, and posts like that just shut it down.

[MIMStigator]

11. I was making a comment on what the poll shows

eom