American Prospect has an article online reminding us that what vote a president gets when he runs for reelection is basically what percentage he's getting for his reelection in the last polls taken. About everyone else breaks for the challenger.
Year Incumbent Last Poll Actual Vote 1996 Bill Clinton: 51 % - 49 % 1992 Geo. HW Bush: 37 % - 37 % 1984 RonaldReagan: 58 % - 59 % 1980 Jimmy Carter: 42 % - 41 %
Bush's current numbers run in the 46-48% range. I doubt he'll do any better than that.
My wife told me you had these two pics side by side but she couldn't remember who posted it! The approval rating is about what % the incombant gets in the popular vote.
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