A note about the accuracy of polls of registered Iowa voters

[Paragon]

In Iowa, you can register and vote at the caucuses.

Obviously, such people are not on the call lists of pollsters. Food for thought.

[Paragon]

1. (crickets chirping)

:shrug:

[Lobo_13]

2. The folks that like to jump

all over a thread that suggests such a thing is universally ignored if they can't make a flip comment about it.

kick, by the way.

[Paragon]

3. Yeah, well...

Umm...so there! :silly:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. How Zogby comes up with call lists

Methodology

SAMPLING

The majority of telephone lists for polls and surveys are produced in the IT department at Zogby International. Vendor-supplied lists are used for regions with complicated specifications, e.g., some Congressional Districts. Customer-supplied lists are used for special projects like customer satisfaction surveys and organization membership surveys.

Telephone lists generated in our IT department are called from the 2002 version of a nationally published set of phone CDs of listed households, ordered by telephone number. Residential (or business) addresses are selected and then coded by region, where applicable. An appropriate replicate1 is generated from this parent list, applying the replicate algorithm repeatedly with a very large parent list, e.g., all of the US.

Acquired lists are tested for duplicates, coded for region, tested for regional coverage, and ordered by telephone, as needed.

The resulting list is loaded into the CATI application and the randomize function within the CATI software is run to further assure a good mix for the telephone list.
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/index.cfm

[Lobo_13]

5. That's not methodology

That is an explanation of how they get their numbers for at least three different types of polls.

It says nothing about what was used for it's political polls.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. You are misinterpreting

[Paragon]

7. Kick

I can't stress enough the pointlessness of polling in Iowa, and not just for the reason I quoted above.