The truth about the cell phone effect

[JohnnyCougar]

Zogby's latest poll shows cell phone users perfer Kerry 55% to 40%. But these people make up only about 10% of the voting population at most. What does that mean? That means this has a net effect of +1.5% on Kerry's poll averages.

While this is good news, it is not to the effect that it is going to tip this race alone, and it is not the kind of effect people have been exhalting here for months. We must count on the challenger advantage to break this for Kerry, and good ground games. From the looks of it, we have both, but we all need to work hard in the next couple days.

So in other words, GOTV!!!

[clydefrand]

1. I'm still betting on all those people who refuse to answer

pollsters...Joe Klein said in a Newsweek article that only 1 in 6 people called would answer the pollster. That's a lot of Kerry votes and maybe a tiny bit for Bush. ;-)

[StupidFOX]

3. With what logic? (not refuting, just curious)

[snowbear]

4. I heard that too.. people are fed up with phone polls..

and only a tiny percentage of overweight, pale, registered members of Free Republic are responding. (ok.. ok.. they didn't say the part about FR, but that's probably the case) ;)

And I definitely agree about cell phone users!!

After this whole deal is over.. I have a feeling some headlines will read:

"Cell Phone Effect Throws Pollsters a Major Curve-Ball"

[Hamlette]

5. a better explanation would be that dems are out working

republican fat cats are sitting at home listening to Rush with time to answer polls.

(apologies in advance for the stereotype)

But think about it. They call people at home. Republican moms stay home. Dem moms work.

[JohnnyCougar]

2. Another note:

The cell phone poll was based on 18-27 year olds, who already favor Kerry 55% to 41%. Given this revelation, the "cell phone effect" would not give Kerry any advantage.

So in other words, GOTV!!!

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Thank you, that's my estimation

Zero benefit to Kerry. The cell phone only crowd is probably closer to 6-7%, not 10%. The age group in general favors Kerry, other than cell phone only users tend to be more upper income than standard, which nullifies Kerry's potential pickup.

We have much more hidden support among unpolled minorities than yuppie cell phone users.

[Star]

8. Not only yuppies

I teach high-school science in a low-income disadvantaged neighborhood. The majority of my students have cell phones so they can be in constant touch with their parents and friends.

They can't vote yet, its true, but the ones I had one or two years ago can vote now. The point is, many low-income people have cell phones rather than land line phones.

Actually, I think the newly-registered voters along with the cell-phone users are the ones who are going to tip the scales in Kerry's favor. Big time, I hope.

[jacksonian]

11. not true

what they're saying here is the 18-27 year olds who support Kerry are 7-10% more in number than a land based poll would recognize. This is a plus for Kerry.

Albeit a small one. Still, GOTV is what will swing this election to us.

[JohnnyCougar]

12. Nope...wrong

Polls call a certain ammount of people from each age group. All of them, not just Zogby. So the young ones without cell phones get called just as much, and since there is no difference in preference between cell phone users and regular landline users, the cell phone poll should have no effect on the current numbers.

[andym]

17. This is right.

Your logic is correct. Since young voters without cell phones have the same preference for Kerry, there should be little difference-- if, and a big if, the pollsters are able to correctly gauge how many people in this age group are actually going to vote.

Remember how the cell phone voters were supposed to save Dean in Iowa when his poll numbers went south. It didn't happen, because this group of voters were already factored in.

With the race this close in the polls, I think GOTV is the absolute key to Kerry winning.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

7. Cell phone voters help.

So do the 66% of undecided voters who usually break to the challenger.

[DaveinMD]

9. it about make up of the electorate

The Democratic demographic is underpolled and undercounted. This is why Gore performed 3-4 points better than the final polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Exactly...

It's all about the composition of the electorate...

Democrats are casual voters... They "don't" come out in off years but they come out of the woodwork in presidential elections...

[MockSwede]

13. Gore in 2000

I thought he was at 39% a week ahead of election day in 2000? Got up near 50% mark; which is more that 3-4 points. Any better details?

[JohnnyCougar]

15. Gore was just down that much in the Gallup poll

Other polls had it closer. Gore's late surge could have been due to either the DUI story or minority turnout.

Don't get me wrong, I think Kerry will win, but cell phones won't have anything to so with it!

[Kazak]

14. Yeah, but there's more to factor than just cell phone users...

There's young voters, and new voters, and non-voters, and former Nader voters, and former Bush voters, and unmotivated Republican voters, and all sorts of other nooks and crannies...the ground swell is strong.

[JohnnyCougar]

16. Everything you mention polls would measure,

except for the new voters. And that is turnout. I believe we have the advantage in turnout, and that will be the only thing that pushes us ahead. Go out of your way to bring people to the polls on Tuesday, and we will win. Get complacent, and we won't.