Is ARG a reliable poll? Because * has caught up and it's a tie...

[tedzbear]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

I have followed this poll this last month because Kerry has been shown to be consistently ahead. Now it's a tie. What the hell is wrong with Americans that they would forgive * for so MUCH destruction??? Or are they just in denial?

:scared:


I am worried that with it being this close, the * cabal will cheat and make him win. Remember what happened in 2000...

[Mojambo]

1. None of them are reliable n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I Didn't See Anything Shocking In That Poll..

[Bleacher Creature]

2. I don't think you are reading the poll correctly.

It looks damn good to me.

[troublemaker]

3. what the heck are you talking about? Could you be more specific? thanks

these results look good.

[Got WMD]

4. ???

Kerry ahead in OH and FL. What are you talking about????

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Right...

Friends don't let friends post drunk...

[snowbear]

13. LOL !!!!!!

DemocratSinceBirth... Don't post such funny things just as I take a sip!! LOL LOL LOL

That was TOO funny!! :bounce:

[truhavoc]

5. Only the national poll looks bad...battlegrounds are all that count!

I don't even pay attention to the national polls anymore. I could care less if 80% of the people in Alabama support bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. tied in nat'l poll -most polls say that!

[troublemaker]

12. What national poll? Do you mean the 48-48? That's a GREAT number for Kerry

[truhavoc]

15. I was talking about in comparison with prior polls...It had * gaining n/t

[troublemaker]

20. Fair enough. Karl Rove says Bush needs 4 point lead in final polls to win

[fearnobush]

7. Yeh, those are not bad numbers.

[FARAFIELD]

8. actually he is at 48

Bush being at 48 isnt a big deal to me, if his final average is that we are in. Kerry will get 50 and 2% to the assorted Daffy ducks and all.

[Warren DeMontague]

9. Looks good. Tight Race but we're in good shape.

Buck up, Sparky.

[BUSHOUT]

11. Please correct your title, you read the poll wrong. n/t

[karlrschneider]

14. I didn't really study that carefully, but don't see any bad news........

:eyes:

[Firespirit]

16. What's wrong with the poll??

The national number, if that's what you mean, shows a tie at 48 percent.. is it the NH or IA figures that bother you?

[meti57b]

17. check this one:

http://www.nowchannel.com/national/

Not only is ARG looking good but fox is looking good.

[Bleacher Creature]

18. Key word: VERTICAL

[carpetbagger]

19. ARG shows a tie, just like most of the other polls.

48-48.

[endnote]

21. People are losing it... Only explanation...

[shelley806]

22. This looks great!! See below

Bush Kerry Nader DK Oct

New Mexico 47% 48% 1% 4% 28-30

New Hampshire 47% 47% 2% 4% 28-30

Iowa 48% 47% 1% 4% 25-27

Oregon 46% 50% * 4% 25-27

Wisconsin 47% 48% 1% 4% 25-27

Florida 46% 49% 1% 4% 23-25

Ohio 47% 49% * 4% 23-25

Pennsylvania 47% 50% * 3% 23-25

* Ralph Nader is not on the ballot



Continental United States
All voters Oct 30 Oct 4 Sep Aug Jul Jun

Bush 48% 44% 45% 45% 44% 45%
Kerry 48% 47% 46% 49% 47% 46%
Nader 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Undecided 3% 7% 6% 4% 6% 6%
1500 registered voters, October 27-30,
MOE ± 2.5 percentage points

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among all voters (including likely voters) nationwide, with Kerry at 49% and Bush at 48%. With Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry is at 48%, Bush is at 48%, and Nader is at 1%. See the results from the October 28-30 survey at 2004 Presidential Ballot.






Bush Job Approval Ratings
10/4/04 Approve Disapprove Undecided

Overall 45% 47% 8%
Economy 40% 53% 7%

George W. Bush's job approval ratings remain unchanged from September. Details from the nationwide survey conducted October 2-4 are available at The Economy.

[shelley806]

25. Sorry, tried 3 times to edit column numbers, and finally gave up...

[PSU84]

23. ARG poll portends Kerry Win

"In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters and likely voters, 49% say they would vote for Kerry and 48% say they would vote for Bush."

As in several other polls, Bush is at 48%. The undecideds will likely break 2/3 for Kerry, based on past elections. Even if they go 50-50, Kerry wins.

[tedzbear]

24. I hope you're right.

eom

[shelley806]

27. It's great!! It's even better excluding aNader....

This show Kerry ahead in all of the important states except Minnesota

If Kerry takes just 2 out of 3 for the following 2 groups of states EV, it's the presidency:

1.) OH, FL, PA and 2.) MN, WI, NM

The results show Kerry ahead in ALL but MN.

[TexasSissy]

26. Here are the results the poster is talking about:

Continental United States

All voters
Oct 30/Oct 4/Sep/Aug/Jul/Jun
Bush 48% 44% 45% 45% 44% 45%
Kerry 48% 47% 46% 49% 47% 46%
Nader 1% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Undecided 3% 7% 6% 4% 6% 6%
1500 registered voters, October 27-30,
MOE ± 2.5 percentage points

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among all voters (including likely voters) nationwide, with Kerry at 49% and Bush at 48%. With Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry is at 48%, Bush is at 48%, and Nader is at 1%. See the results from the October 28-30 survey at 2004 Presidential Ballot.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/
*******************************************

Yes, according to this poll, 4% undecided and 1% Nader voters went to Bush 4% and Kerry 1%. Not good. But that's okay. It's still a tie. In order to win, Bush needs to do much better than tie. I'd rather have the 10/4 results, but this tie is in keeping with Zogby's latest (tie @ 48%) and WP tracking poll (Bush 47%, Kerry 48% registered voters).

BUT...the national head to head polls are NOT the most critical of the polls! MOST important are the polls in the battleground states (this election is now ONLY in the battleground states, not nationally) AND Bush's job approval rating. The ARG battleground state polls are quite good:

Bush Kerry Nader DK Oct

New Mexico 47% 48% 1% 4% 28-30

New Hampshire 47% 47% 2% 4% 28-30

Iowa 48% 47% 1% 4% 25-27

Oregon 46% 50% * 4% 25-27

Wisconsin 47% 48% 1% 4% 25-27

Florida 46% 49% 1% 4% 23-25

Ohio 47% 49% * 4% 23-25

Pennsylvania 47% 50% * 3% 23-25

* Ralph Nader is not on the ballot

As you can see, Kerry is leading or tied in 7 of these 8 battleground states (incl. the three biggies of FL, Ohio, & Pa.!)!

[Lexingtonian]

28. oh, grow up

All the 'Likely Voter' polls are flying around with something like 8-10% of voters badly sampled or not even accounted for in them these days. The mix of error in the modelling and error to the sampling and error of the sampling makes all the polls fly around in a 5-8% realm that helps nobody. RV polls are far more accurate, though less informative.

Basically there is little or no movement, only shakyness. The most careful and cumulative poll readings come up with numbers very close to the Democracy Corps assessment: Kerry 48-49%, Bush 47%, Nader ~1%, ~4% Undecideds. Each side can boost turnout about 1% further- about a million voters-, for a wash. The Undecideds probably break 3-1 in Kerry's favor.

The state-by-state numbers pretty much fit a 51-52% Kerry, 47-48% Bush, 1-2% Third Party final outcome, 115 million voters or so. Actual percentages will depend on turnout in minimally contested and uncontested states.

[Orangepeel]

29. taking a poll is like taking a spoonful of soup

If the pot is well stirred, then any given spoonful should give you a fairly accurate idea of what the soup tastes like. I don't know the margin of error on this poll, but let's say it is +/-3. That means that 95% of the time, a poll that gives you this result (e.g., this spoonful of soup) will give you results that are within 3 points of the actual population results.

But sometimes, you get a big hunk of carrot or a bay leaf or something in your spoonful and it just isn't exactly right. 5% of the time (1 out of 20 times), you'll get results that are just screwy. That's just statistics -- it happens even if the poll is conducted perfectly.

I'm not saying this poll is the 1 out of 20. The results don't seem out of line to me. I'm just saying that you can't put too much stock in any one poll.