My final election day prediction - Kerry 279 Bush 259

[HeldsBelds]

The latest polls show a republican trend in Ohio. I think the republican machine there (they hold every statewide office) will win it or steal it for Bush. Repeat of Florida from 2000. bad punch card ballots, voter intimidation, you name it.

I have Kerry winning Florida. Record breaking early voting turnout in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties will offset republican gains in the panhandle and southwest. Kerry will win by a point or two. The margin will be greater than the republican machine's ability to steal it.

I have Bush winning New Mexico and Iowa. Multiple polls over the last few weeks have consistently shown a trend for Bush in these two states. I don't know why we are losing them. I read demographic trends in Iowa have not been favorable for us.

I have Kerry winning New Hampshire. The state has trended more democratic since 2000 as residents from Mass. have moved into the NH suburbs.

I have Kerry winning Wisconsin and Minn., but both of these states concern me greatly. Bush will not win both of them. He may win one of them and that would result in a 269-269 tie, depending on how Maine's stray electoral vote will go in that one favorable Bush congressional district.

I just have a sinking feeling something bizarre like this may happen, divisive polarized 50/50 nation, an electoral college tie seems possible, but the probability is greater that Kerry will win and thus here is my prediction: Kerry 279 Bush 259

It will be close. This is an ugly win but a win is a win is a win. GOTV and go to the polls.

[TimeToGo]

1. Well

We will know in a few days I guess. But I am not willing to write off NM, IA, or OH, yet.

[kutastha]

6. I agree

I think Kerry will take NM, Ohio and Iowa. The pubs will be so busy trying to steal Florida again, they might as well have it in that case. Kerry 284, Bush 254.

Though it'd be fantastic to take FL as well, to make it Kerry 311, Bush 227.

[Daisey Mae]

2. I like these numbers

BUT PREFER .....KERRY BY A LANDSLIDE.......

[HeldsBelds]

4. I am trying to be realistic here

and remove any bias I may have for Kerry.

Landslide is a nice thought but I live in the real world and I just don't see it.

It will be close.

[harpo]

3. I like my map better

[Nicholas_J]

5. Given that Bush has not broken through the 50 percent mark

in most polls, and the historical tendency for the incumbent to finish with fewer votes than the last polls indicatewhile the opposition ends up with more votes than the polls indicate, this is not an unreasonable prediction Bush has to be considered by many Americans to be one of the worse presidents to ever sit in the Oval Office if he cannot pull higher than his average of 47 or 48 percent.

Right now Zogby is stating that the election is Kerry;'s to lose.

He states that the undecided will vote for Kerry if they vote.

[July]

7. I'm going with at least 279. I'd like to see 297,

in case FLA gets flipped after the fact (sadly for our "democracy," we can't count on a fair vote in FLA).

I give Kerry 51%, maybe 52%, Nader 1% (max), Bush 47% or 48%.

[Ilsa]

8. Russert gave us a scary scenario:

Bush takes Hawaii, Kerry gets Ohio. They tie at 269 each and the HOuse gets to decide.

[writes2000]

9. Bush Will Not Take Hawaii.

But Kerry will probably take Ohio.