Rasmussen , Zogby trend toward Bush. FOX trends toward Kerry.

[Sean Reynolds]

Am I the only one confused here? Granted Zogby shows it a tie, but Bush did gain 2 points. In Rasmussen Bush went from being tied with Kerry, to leading him by about a point. NOW the FOX poll shows Kerry and Bush tied.

So who's trending? Do we have to wait for the WaPo poll? OR do we go by the likes of Newsweek?

Or is it that this race IS really basically 50-50 and whoever GOTV will win and these polls are only changing because of the MOE?

[deadparrot]

1. Polls are worthless at this point.

They're all showing a dead heat.

[ruggerson]

2. Wa Po is already out, tied, trending Kerry

[flowomo]

4. haha! we musta hit the send button at the same second!

[flowomo]

3. WaPo is out already.... it's a tie... trending Kerry

www.washingtonpost.com

[RevolutionStartsNow]

5. There are no trends, just statistical noise

GOTV.

GOTV.

GOTV.

[Teaser]

6. Zogby isn't a "trend"

You can't really call it a trend when they both go up like that.
And what's obvious is that there is no trend, period. It's all just noise.

As for WaPo, Bush went down 1, Kerry up 1 to an exact tie at 48. And Kerry leads RVs by 1.

[flpoljunkie]

7. And Zogby has already predicted a Kerry win along with Crawford, Hotline.

[nycmjkfan]

8. Zogby was just on AAR...

and if his polls hold true, Kerry wins.


Also, he said that he was able to poll 6,000 Motorolla cell phone users and it was something like 54-40 pro-Kerry

[chimp chump]

17. ****interesting****

"Also, he said that he was able to poll 6,000 Motorolla cell phone users and it was something like 54-40 pro-Kerry"

The new cellphone-only demographic and the emerging VoIP demographic have been overlooked by pollsters in past elections. And I see no reason to believe that Motorola's customers would trend more Dem than GOP, given that Zogby apparently used phone equipment compatible with this group.

These groups tend to be younger voters though. So some of them might not show up. Regardless, this cannot be good news for Bush if Zogby is giving us sound numbers.

[Goldmund]

9. None of these "trends" are real

Tracking polls from day-to-day are more or less random.

As far as Zogby, yes, Bush gained 2, but Kerry gained one -- and Zogby doesn't give fractional analysis, just whole numbers. Same with WaPo, where Kerry gained 1. In Rasmussen, the difference in spread was less than a point.

As far as FAUX, they're just laughable anyway. Yes, Kerry has gained 5 points in the last 2 days, but who cares, it's FAUX. Who knows what their agenda is and who knows how reliable their polls are.

Tracking polls are basically just a good way for these organizations to keep peole peeled to their TVs and Internets. We should stop following polls and GOTV.

[TomNickell]

12. The Fox polling firm is actually reputable....

They've been pretty close to Zogby et al most of the time. Nowhere near Gallup et al.

And, yes, these changes are mostly noise.

Only conlusion--Bin Laden didn't save Bush's ass. If there -is- a trend, it's in the other direction.

[pabloseb]

10. Zogby has Kerry 1pt up in his latest day of polling

Rasmussen, Faux and Zogby ALL SHOW TREND TOWARD KERRY!!!!

[Sean Reynolds]

11. Thanks everyone!

Just wanted to check! :)

[robbedvoter]

13. Zogby just said on AAR that things go the way he said, Kerry wins!

[tedoll78]

14. Bush is basically stuck.

He won't get above 48% on Election Day. And that isn't enough to win.

[chimp chump]

15. Polls don't matter...

..speeches and campaigns no longer matter, nothing matters except voter turnout efforts. Or maybe convincing the last handful of undecideds to break toward your candidate.

If you want to win, GOTV.

[ThePhilosopher04]

16. FOR THE ONE-MILLIONTH TIME!!! there are NO TRENDS....

in polls that fluctuate back and forth within the MOE!!! And even if one poll shows a blip outside the MOE for a particular candidate, that still doesn't qualify as a trend unless it's sustained over several days.

If journalists are going to do stories and make comments on polls, they should at least know WTF they're talking about!!!