About those cell phone users that are never polled - Zogby says...

[unfrigginreal]

Released: October 31, 2004

Young Mobile Voters Pick Kerry Over Bush, 55% to 40%, Rock the Vote/Zogby Poll Reveals: National Text-Message Poll Breaks New Ground

Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004. Independent Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters. The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc. (for more information: http://www.rtvmo.com). The poll has margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=919

[charlyvi]

1. Oh Yeah!

Now if they will just get to the polls. And have the patience to wade through the repub vote suppression bullshit.

[unfrigginreal]

3. I don't know how he determined them to be likely voters but it sure

looks good.

[IHaveADream]

10. they WILL vote

The poll also found that only 2.3% of 18-29 year-old respondents said they did not plan to vote, and another .5% who were not sure if they would. The results of the survey are weighted for region, gender, and political party.

[TheDebbieDee]

2. Wow! Those numbers sound like great news for Kerry!

[Tatiana]

4. More than 6,000 in the sample.... WOW

Is Zogby the first polling company to do a mobile phone poll of this kind?

[CPschem]

5. I'm one of them

Cell phone only, first time voter. Most of my friends are the same. Almost all voting Kerry.

[Claire Beth]

16. do you live in one of the swing states?

[Oddman]

6. That is the thread of the day!

I keep telling people the mobile phone users have not been included in the polls!!!!

Fantastic!!!

bush failed America - new commercial - click here

[IHaveADream]

7. Best post of the day award!

This is the info I was looking for - thanks!!

[Quixote1818]

8. So what would that do to the current poll numbers when factored in?

[IHaveADream]

9. This is 18-29 year olds so it would add about 4 points to Kerry's numbers

It looks like we are going to win big.

[leeroysphitz]

11. Imagine that...

A simple NON weighted poll going OVERWHELMINGLY for Kerry...

This is great news and goes along way toward confirming what I've been thinking since mid summer: the pollsters haven't been talking to the people who are going to truly decide this election.

[IHaveADream]

12. yep - they were left out until now

that is why Zogby is predicting a Kerry win.

[pabloseb]

13. What matters is young turnout, not cell phone dichotomoy

Please don't start saying that I'm a freeper troll. KERRY WILL WIN.

But these lead is similar to the lead Kerry has among ALL young voters. Maybe a bit larger. Since polls are weighted according to historical turnout, the influence this would have is very small. This could only make a difference if there was a big difference between non-cell phone voters under 30 and cell phone voters under 30; and there isn't.

Also, this is not a random sample of the whole population. Only subscribers to RTVMO have been polled, and there is no way to know if they're a representative sample of the general population.

HOWEVER, if young people turn out to vote in record numbers (either cell phone or non-cell phone), that WILL give Kerry an edge, because all polls assume that young turnout will follow the historical trend.

So in the end it is true that Kerry will do better than expected thanks to young people, but for different reasons.

:hi:

[leeroysphitz]

15. You are a freeper troll.

Lol, just kidding. Thanks for the POV.

[snacker]

14. I keep telling my kids,

it's your generation that is going to elect John Kerry.