Rasmussen Internals and Some Weekly State Numbers (All Good)

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3 day tracking numbers have no change from yesterday with Bush leading 48.1% to 47.1%. However, that's not the whole story.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com.

When we add leaners to his national numbers, it becomes 48.8% to 48.2%, the lead is cut to 0.6%. This shows the undecided trend of 2 to 1 for Kerry.

In the more important breakdown of the 16 battleground states, where the election in really being fought, Kerry leads by 48.9% to 47.1%. When we add leaners in these 16 states, Kerry's lead increases dramatically to 49.7% to 47.5%. Again, demonstrating an undecided trend that breaks 2 to 1 to the challenger. About half of this polling has been done after the bin Laden video was released on Friday afternoon.

Some pretty insignificant data (other than possibly Missouri) in some other states was just released:

Missouri, Bush 50%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from 10/6)

Maryland, Kerry 53%-43% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from 10/9)

Alabama, Bush 53%-41% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from 10/12)

California, Kerry 53%-42% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from 10/13)

New York, Kerry 57%-36% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from 10/6)

[shawmut]

1. Thanks, louis c

I was just thinking back to when Maryland was shown as toss-up in a poll or two awhile back ... what a bunch of crap that was.

[DaveinMD]

2. Maryland is not that close

we'll win here by at least 15 percent.

[jefferson_dem]

4. But MO may be even closer than indicated. Surging ahead!

[DemocracyInaction]

7. You know, I thought MO was going to be in play early in this whole

thing and then when it was like nip and tuck it seems we pulled out. I guess these guys have other data and know when to play and when to fold. But I still think that MO had a chance with just a little more time and effort.

[bettyellen]

6. new jersey too

they were pretending that was close a couple of weeks ago, and it's not!
and we get to vote against pay to play- mc greevey's swan song. woooo hoooo!

[pabloseb]

3. The state data is NOT insignificant

Kerry gained one point in all states. That confirms Kerry has the momentum, even if those particular states are not play.
The battleground numbers look great.

:bounce:

[DuaneBidoux]

5. If Florida or Ohio goes Kerry

Missouri might easily pick up Kerry. They have this reputation for "voting for the winner" that might be in jeapordy should Ohio or Florida go Kerry and they stay with Shrub.