EC Trackers: Kerry Blowout Or Just A Win?

[demwing]

In the LA Times Tracker (http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash), you can set the states as you see fit.

I took every poll where Bush was getting only 49% of the vote or less, and gave that state to Kerry. The results show a Kerry landslide (347/191) over Bush. Figuring in the Jeb factor, and assuming Florida is too corrupted to count, I added FL to the Bush camp and came up with Kerry winning, 320/218.

Then I went a step further, and narrowed it to the states where Bush isn't breaking 48%. The results show Kerry winning 319/219. Take Florida out (for the same reasons as above) its still Kerry, 292/246.

So, you want to tell me that the polls don't look good?

[tedoll78]

1. That's what I've been wondering.

I have two scenarios for how this election will play-out.

Scenario #1: Eeking-By to Victory
In this scenario, the GOP base is charged-up, but the Dems are slightly better this election cycle.

Kerry wins all Gore States minus New Mexico and Iowa.
Kerry flips New Hampshire and Ohio to win with 272EVs.


Scenario #2: The Blowout
You know how when there's an underwater landslide, the resulting tsunami isn't detectable until it reaches shallow waters near land? In this one, Bush is standing on the beach, looking at a peaceful ocean.. not expecting anything.

Kerry wins all Gore states.
Kerry flips New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Arkansas, and Nevada.
He wins with 375EVs.

==========

I usually laugh at those boldly predicting a 300+ electoral vote victory; my gut tells me that Scenario #1 will end-up being closer to what happens. But when I look at the surge in voter turnout as demonstrated in early voting, I can't help but wonder if we'll actually top 300EVs. It certainly would be a mandate..

[Eurobabe]

2. I prefer the tsunami scenario myself

the bastard * will be left running for shelter, no where to go, no where to hide.

[tedoll78]

3. And swept-away, drowning in his own ignorance..

[Birthmark]

4. Here's some fun:

I awarded Kerry only the states in which Bush had 47% or less. I even awarded Michigan to Bush. Final Result: Kerry 287, Bush 251!

I retried it with awarding Kerry only the states in which Bush had 46% or less and *still* came up with Kerry 276, Bush 262.

Looks pretty likely to me that we'll have a new President in January. :):):)