New Jersey locked (Kerry 54- Ass Monkey 42), Nevada tied at 49

[fujiyama]

This is around the same margin by which Gore won the state! And NV is looking very close too...I'm feeling good about this! I'm sure that HI is also not goin anywhere.

www.surveyusa.com

[lebkuchen]

1. I hope Californians will be heading over to NV to help get the vote out

cover that state like a wet blanket.

[wickerwoman]

2. Electoral-Vote Predictor had NJ a dead-heat.

This alone convinces me that Kerry will win in a massive landslide. No way in merry hell does Bush take NJ.

[fujiyama]

3. That site is screwed up

He's probably using some kind of Strategic Vision poll.

[WCGreen]

5. He takes the one with the

most current ending date as the one that is included on the map.....

[fujiyama]

6. I know

and I think it's a stupid way to deal with the polls.

I really don't like that site very much.

[StlMo]

9. There is a new map on Electoral-Vote.com without partisan polls.

He is using Strategic Vision on the main map.

The new map is a little better:

Electoral-Vote.com: Averaged Nonpartisan Polls (10/30/2004):

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct30z.html

[Crazy8s]

11. 2nd Map shows FL tied

Hubby and I did our part and voted yesterday. Only stood about and hour in line. Met some other voratious Dems in line. Folks here haven't forgotten how badly we were screwed last time, and all of *s mistakes in running our country (into the ground)has only iced the cake! FL Dems want to take the Liar down!

[StlMo]

12. I think Kerry will win Florida.

I think Kerry will win Florida precisely because of the tremendous effort of FL Democrats.

:dem:

[teryang]

4. Right, the implication from the predictor was win NJ

...and Kerry would win the election, even if he lost Florida. I think he may lose Florida, simply due to the overwhelming political corruption in this state.

[fujiyama]

7. He also has Bush ahead in MI

which is complete BS.

Kerry will win here by atleast 5 points.

[teryang]

8. I'm looking at the wrong site

I was looking at the LA Times Electoral Vote Tracker at:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

This shows Kerry ahead (in Michigan) if you put your mouse over it. What is the predictor site?

[fujiyama]

10. I was thinking of

the site the other poster was talking about: www.electoral-vote.com

I can't stand that site because the guy treats all polls the same - whether it's from a partisan source or not.

Plus, the site has no way in dealing with outliers, so if someone says Kerry's up by only 1 point in CA because of some outlier polls, they started flipping out.