For those getting worried with the new polls: Check out 2000 "accuracy"

[Tweed]

1.. The ABC tracking poll averaged a 4 point Bush lead in the last week and its final poll had a 3 point Bush lead.

2. Bloomberg News final poll (October 29) had a 3 point Bush lead.

3. Final Time poll (October 26) had a 6 point Bush lead.

4. Gallup's tracking poll had Bush ahead by an average of 4 points in the final week and by 2 points in its final poll.

5. Marist College's final poll (November 2) gave Bush a 5 point lead.

6. Final NBC/WSJ poll (November 5) had Bush up by 3 and their mid-October poll had him up by 6.

7. Final Newsweek poll (November 2) had Bush up by 2 and their October 27 poll had him up by 8.

8. Final Pew Research poll had Bush up by 2.

9. A November 4 CBS/NYT poll had Bush up by 5 (though the final CBS poll was dead-on, with a 1 point Gore lead).

10. Final ICR poll had Bush up by 2.

11. Voter.com Battleground survey (this year called GWU Battleground) averaged an 8 point Bush lead in the final week and its final poll gave Bush a 5 point lead.

12. TIPP tracking poll gave Bush a average 6 point lead in the final week and a final poll lead of 2 points.

13. Prior to its well-known final reading of a 2 point Gore lead, Zogby's tracking poll gave Bush an average 3 point lead in the final week.

14. Final Hotline poll (November 5) gave Bush a 3 point lead

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000866.php

Other factors in our favor:
1. MASSIVE voter registration drives
2. More people use only cell phones than in 2000
3. Spanish/non-English speakers are rarely polled

[Was_Immer]

1. News registered voters rarely get added to polls!

They are not counted often times even if polled.

[AndyP]

2. That sounds like excellent news

With the turnout of the new voters I think Kerry will win, or at least I hope he does.

[Tweed]

3. Love the sig, Go Packers (and I'm a Bears fan)

[okieinpain]

4. I believe that the polls are probably right, but it's just among

white males. the turnout by blacks throw them off, and I believe it is going to happen again this year.

[jfern]

5. RCP was off

RealClearPolitics said Bush 446, Kerry 92

Bush 51.2
Kerry 41.9
Nader 5.8

http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.html

[VOX]

7. You mean Gore, right?

Welcome to DU, jfern! :toast:

[PE]

6. Rasmussen had Bush +7 over Gore the day before..

..the election. Back then, they declared it highly unlikely for Gore to come close, just as they tried to this past Friday when Bush was +2 in their poll.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. A few things to consider about 2000

The election was on November 7. SOME of the firms that polled until election day, or very close, caught the late move to Gore. The ones that cut off in late October or early November obviously did not.

There IS evidence Gore gained at the end, and that earlier polls showing Bush ahead were more accurate than we believe. Exit polls showed Gore won the late deciders -- final week or 3 days -- by roughly 48-45.

Your points regarding new registers and minority voters are well taken. Gore won first time voters 52-43 and I would expect Kerry to fare similarly well, or a slightly lower percentage but a greater net gain due to sheer numbers. Minority groups were definitely underestimated in 2000 and no doubt again this year. That is our hidden edge, especially if the newly registered young blacks and Hispanics turn out in key states. IMO the cell phone only crowd will break very close to 50/50.