THIS Is How I Think It Will End Up....

[mermaid]

[cavvie]

1. Probably

This outcome seems very likely assuming Kerry can wretch Wisconson from Bush. However, if he can't do that, or Bush pulls an upset in Ohio or Hawaii, it's down the drain in Bush's favor.

[newyawker99]

30. Hi cavvie!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Bucky]

3. Trade Hawaii for Colorado & New Mexico

We may still pull out Iowa. I think Colorado is gonna suprise us. New Mexico will surprise us by not surprising us.

AHwaii is just weird. I think they're mad at the Democratic machine out there and are taking it out on Kerry. I think that one is lost.

[maxudargo]

16. Can you explain the first picture in your signature?

Is that Robert Kennedy?

[One Taste]

25. I've been wondering who that was too

[A-Schwarzenegger]

28. Bobby Kennedy

[DemFromMem]

33. Hawaii will stay blue

One bogus poll that massively overweighted Republican turnout is what has the pundits atwitter. This is a safe state for us.

[tedoll78]

5. That's my exact prediction.

Weird.

I still waver on Florida and Iowa though.

[LibDemAlways]

6. I think we'll take Florida, Iowa, and New Mexico.

Kerry will win comfortably.

[sandnsea]

7. Just this once

Because I don't believe in over confidence, but this is my guess...



Kerry 344
Bush 194

[elsiesummers]

23. Not FL - the vote doesn't matter there. VA doubtful. Yes Arkansas.

VA - I'm from there originally and keep in touch/visit. I do think it is within Democratic reach - but probably not for Kerry during this election. IMO, would have taken Clark or Edwards (read S. Democrat) at ticket top to bring VA. NC is similar to VA though VA has a stronger immigrant, minority and military population; NC less military but more rural and more academic. Maybe, maybe, turnout will surprise us all with a Dem win in either VA or NC.

I think (hope) Clinton can pull in Arkansas.

Jeb owns Florida and the vote really doesn't matter there.

The 272 vote margin in the original message is close enough for Bush to steal it - therefore not enough for Kerry to win it.

The map needs to be close to this - minus maybe one small and one large state. Kerry needs a decisive win in order to actually attain the presidency/ be innaugurated.

[David Dunham]

8. I think Kerry will also win FL, IA, NM, NV, and WV

[OneBlueSky]

9. I think you're way too conservative (in the generic sense) . . .

I agree with your blue states, but I believe that four or five others could easily go to Kerry as well . . . possibly even more with a monstrous turnout (which is looking rather likely) . . . I think that young people and new voters are going to carry this election for Kerry, and in a big way and unexpected way . . .

[jab105]

10. I think those plus Iowa...and then we dont have to wait for Hawaii:)

n/t

[snowbear]

12. Nice map..

Can't wait to see those results!!! :bounce:

[Mojambo]

14. That would be the wrost case scenario, imo

And we STILL win.

[AndyTiedye]

11. Ohio is Red in the Latest Poll

If we lose Ohio and Florida, we need to win Arkansas, New Mexico,
and Iowa. That brings us to exactly 270 -- just enough.

That still isn't worst case, not even close.

[cindyw]

15. You think we will be waiting up past midnight for Hawaii.

Your scenario would suggest so. Wouldn't that suck.

[mermaid]

19. Yes, It Would Suck, But

yes, I also think that we will be up past midnight waiting for Hawaii. I really do believe that it will be this close, but we still win. And this is a worst-case scenario. I just can't see it being any worse than this. I even gave IA to the Pugs, NM to the Pugs, and FL to the Pugs (because we ALL know the fix is in for FL already!!)

BUT, if IA or NM breaks Kerry, maybe we get an early night.

[AndyTiedye]

13. I'm More Concerned With Having to wait for the Courts To Give it to Booosh

Walter Cronkite thinks it would be tied up in the courts until spring.
That would be a Very Bad Thing, because all courts lead to the Supreme
Court, and we know what they will do because they've done it before,
and the real precedent for Bush v. Gore is "The Republican is always
right". Though we might not have to wait that long. Following the
2000 non-precedent precedent, the Supremes may step in again to
pre-empt any state court actions that seem to be going against
the Bush* regime, on the grounds that losing an election would
cause the regime irreprable harm.

We need a big enough landslide that even the most partisan court in
the land, the U.S. Supreme Court, will not think of overturning it.

[coloradodem2005]

17. What site is that?

[RafterMan]

2. here's one

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html

[coloradodem2005]

4. That is modeled from Edwards' Campaign site.

That is pretty cool.

[Tweed]

18. Couldn't agree more

Razor thin, but hey a win is a win. It would be great if we could get New Mexico or Iowa so that we don't need to worry about Hawaii, but whatever.

[WMliberal]

20. it sure is an ugly baby, but it gets the job done.

I prefer cartograms. All that red land looks scary.

[Hoffnung]

21. Whoa those are a lot of red states

I think I'm going to throw up :puke:

[harpo]

24. yeah...Kerry is going to take more states than that...too much red

[mountainvue]

26. Dont' worry.

The majority of people don't live in those states. Densely populated states = more electoral votes.

[Stocat]

22. Funny That was my exact prediction on that site as well.

I think thats the way its going to turn out. But I am willing to put good money on New Mexico coming out blue meaning we won't have to wait on HI.

[kaitykaity]

27. That's a beautiful map.

I really think that's the very least Kerry's going
to do. (It's the least he CAN do and still win
really.)

I'd put NV, NM, CO, AZ, AR, TN, NC, and MO in as
surprises, too.

But I guess I'm just feeling lucky.

[Placebo]

29. Hey, I'll take any scenario that puts us over 270!

:)

[Clinton Crusader]

31. this is how I 'feel' right now

[jmowreader]

32. I don't think it will be nearly that close

First, I think we'll take Florida. BBV and Jeb be damned, there are some PISSED OFF people there--Seniors and Cubans. We keep saying the Cuban vote leans Republican; this is normally the case, but Bush has really restricted the Cubans' ability to support their families on the island.

Second, I also think we'll take Nevada--and not just because of Yucca Mountain. They've got to realize that eventually Bush's economics are going to hit the tourism industry--and tourism is just about their entire economy.

I have a good feeling about North Carolina, West Virginia and Virginia, too.

I'm a bit suspicious about Arkansas and Tennessee, but they could win one for the Big Dog.

Similarly, watch Colorado close: if Salazar takes Colorado's senate seat, the state will probably also go to Kerry. I think Salazar will; his opponent is a brewer, and you know how those no-sin fundies hate strong drink.

I like our chances in Iowa and Missouri, too.

[goodhue]

34. Kerry will also win IA, Fl and CO, for a total of 315 EVs