STATE-BY-STATE PREDICTIONS -- Add your input here!

[RememberTheCoup]

Okay, for those of you who haven't seen my previous posts,
here's what I'm doing. I want to get a list of all the states
(plus DC) organized into nine categories:

1 strong Bush
2 moderate Bush
3 weak Bush
4 barely Bush
5 tossup
6 barely Kerry
7 weak Kerry
8 moderate Kerry
9 strong Kerry

I want to try to get some sort of consensus from Duers on
which states you think belong in which categories. I started
off with my own predictions but I've been refining them as I
go based on everyone's suggestions. I'm trying to keep a
CAUTIOUS outlook, but everyone seems more optimistic than I
am, so I've upgraded (made stronger for Kerry) many more
states than I've downgraded (made stronger for Bush).

Here's the newest list with everyone's most recent suggestions
incorporated. (Except Colorado is so controversial that I'm
going to leave it as a tossup for the time being -- unless I
get a real big push to upgrade it.) One big change is that I'm
now using nine categories, where I had previously been using
only seven. Also, I added a column on the right that indicates
how the state did in 2000: 1=strong Bush, 9=strong Gore,
5=tossup, etc. 

EV stands for the number of electoral votes for each state.
Nebraska and Maine can each divide their votes proportionally.
I've been treating them as wholes, but I can divide them up if
people think I should. 

Please keep those comments coming in!

IMPORTANT: I don't want to keep starting new threads, so from
now on I will be keeping all my updates in this thread. When I
have enough comments to post an update, I will title the post
"NEW LIST". Please look for the newest list in the
thread and respond to that instead of to the original post, as
it will not have the latest changes.


	state 		abbr 	 EV 	2000
--------------------------------------------
1-STRONG BUSH
	Georgia 	GA 	 15 	2
	Indiana 	IN 	 11 	1
	Alabama 	AL 	  9 	2
	Kentucky 	KT 	  8 	1
	South Carolina 	SC 	  8 	1
	Oklahoma 	OK 	  7 	1
	Kansas 		KA 	  6 	1
	Mississippi 	MS 	  6 	1
	Utah 		UT 	  5 	1
	Idaho 		ID 	  4 	1
	Alaska 		AK 	  3 	1
	Montana 	MT 	  3 	1
	North Dakota 	ND 	  3 	1
	South Dakota 	SD 	  3 	1
	Wyoming 	WY 	  3 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 94


2-MODERATE BUSH
	Texas 		TX 	 34 	1
	Tennessee 	TN 	 11 	4
	Louisiana 	LA 	  9 	3
	Nebraska 	NE 	  5 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 59


3-WEAK BUSH
	Virginia 	VA 	 13 	3
	Missouri 	MO 	 11 	4
	West Virginia 	WV 	  5 	3
	---------------------------
	total 			 29


4-BARELY BUSH
	North Carolina 	NC 	 15 	2
	Nevada 		NV 	  5 	4
	---------------------------
	total 			 20


5-TOSSUP
	Arizona 	AZ 	 10 	3
	Colorado 	CO 	  9 	3
	---------------------------
	total 			 19


6-BARELY KERRY
	Ohio 		OH 	 20 	4
	Wisconsin 	WI 	 10 	5
	Iowa 		IA 	  7 	6
	Arkansas 	AR 	  6 	3
	New Mexico  	NM 	  5 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 48


7-WEAK KERRY
	Florida 	FL 	 27 	5
	Pennsylvania 	PA 	 21 	7
	Michigan 	MI 	 17 	7
	Minnesota 	MN 	 10 	6
	Hawaii 		HI 	  4 	9
	New Hampshire 	NH 	  4 	4
	---------------------------
	total 			 83


8-MODERATE KERRY
	New Jersey 	NJ 	 15 	9
	Oregon 		OR 	  7 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 22


9-STRONG KERRY
	California 	CA 	 55 	8
	New York 	NY 	 31 	9
	Illinois 	IL 	 21 	8
	Massachusetts 	MA 	 12 	9
	Washington 	WA 	 11 	7
	Maryland 	MD 	 10 	9
	Connecticut 	CT 	  7 	9
	Maine 		ME 	  4 	7
	Rhode Island 	RI 	  4 	9
	Delaware 	DE 	  3 	8
	Dist of Columb 	DC 	  3 	9
	Vermont 	VT 	  3 	8
	---------------------------
	total 			164

[David Dunham]

1. Kerry wins Nevada

[are_we_united_yet]

2. "You forgot Poland!"

You think Texas is Moderate Bush? I would have thought strong Bush.

[RememberTheCoup]

5. A couple of DUers said otherwise.

I originally had TX as strong Bush, but I was told TX might be more for Kerry than people expect. Since I want the list to reflect a DU consensus rather than just my own opinion, I upgraded TX. Since you apparently disagree, I may downgrade TX on the next list unless I get more input saying to leave it as "moderate Bush".

Thanks! :hi:

[saccheradi]

15. leave it as moderate.

I would even go a step below that given recent polling numbers.

[peppersnick]

7. and.. Costa Rica... woohoo

[WatchWhatISay]

12. Im not sure what the definintion of strong is

But I think a lot of people are going to be surprised how many Texans will vote for Kerry.

[0007]

28. Poppy bush didn't do too well in 1992 against Clinton

I understand the early voting in Texas has favored Kerry. The turn out has been high. Though I think junior will win the state, it won't be by much.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

42. Moderate Texas

That is what I think too. I was told we had more then 700,000 new registrations and that was about a week before deadline. I don't know what our final numbers were for sure. I know that we have been working this election harder then any other I have seen. I have seen many Republicans that have turned their backs on Bush here. Also, the Hispanic vote is in majority for Kerry. I think we will make Bush sweat a bit on Tuesday.

[RememberTheCoup]

46. I have it in the "weak Bush" category right now, but I may move it back.

I see a lot of enthusiasm for Texas, but even "weak Bush" seems too optimistic to me. I will probably move it back to "moderate Bush" next time unless I get more support for the "weak Bush" category. I would rather be too cautious than too optimistic although I want this list to reflect DU's outlook, not my personal opinions.

[Zynx]

3. I'd put VA and MO in the barely Bush or tossup category.

[spooky3]

62. me too

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

4. Why do you keep posting this?

This reposting is almost as bad as me....

move colorado to arely Kerry at the very least...

[pleiku52cab]

6. Florida

should be barely Kerry - he will get the most people voting for him, but what will the rigged voting machines (with no paper trail) in those counties under repub control (like mine, Sarasota) show at the end of the voting day. I just hope they can't steal, switch, undercount or disallow enough of the popular vote to throw the state to awol (note the small awol-he doesn't even deserve capital letters). PS - the board of election commissioners is now appointed by the state government (Jebbie Boy) and no longer is no longer an elected position.

[pleiku52cab]

8. oops

double clutched that last sentence there, but you get my meaning.

[ShaneGR]

9. I would put Florida, Minnesota, and New Hampshire in the "Barely Kerry"

Other than that, looks good. Perhaps Ohio could be considered tossup

[RememberTheCoup]

10. thanks!

It's nice to see cautious predictions for a change.

[wellstone dem]

27. The latest polls out of Minnesota have kerry

up 8 to 9%. MN should stay where it is or upgrade to moderate Kerry.

[doni_georgia]

11. Dems have had a good GOTV effort in GA don't be surprised if it isn't

as strong Bush as you think. Doubt it will go for Kerry, but I think it's gonna be closer than anyone has guessed.

[PCIntern]

13. PA Moderate Kerry

The cities are motivated, the minority population is pumped, and we're gonna take back what was ours 4 years ago. If PA doesn't come thru, the night is over...but we will. that's a Promise!

[RebelOne]

33. I hope you are right, but I don't think so.

All I see are Bush/Cheney bumperstickers and yard signs. I think I am the only person in Cherokee County to have a Kerry/Edwards bumpersticker.

[Nevernose]

14. NEVADA -- weak to strong Kerry

I have witnessed too many people working too damned hard to believe anything else (besides being one of those people). The Democratic Party has been dead or dying here for year; GW may have been the best thing to have ever happened to us. I have never seen such energy in an election. I am constantly astounded, and mere words cannot describe the level of political fervor that has been effected here.

Besides the personal anecdotes of my volunteering -- and we had more volunteers than we could use effectively BEFORE folks from California started showing up -- there are my personal observances. At my previous work (which I lost becuase GW cancelled the grant I was working under), virtually everybody was voting for Kerry, even the old fat white men I had assumed were naturally Bush voters. Most of the Repukes I know are just gonna sit this one out. Dem turnout for early voting is something like 70-30 Democratic.

Personally, I suspect that staewide voting here dpeends upon models weighting Noprhtern Nevada turnout, and does not properly figure in the recent influx of SoCal voters or the number of Libertarian-leaning people pissed off by Bush.

(And regarless of your previous polls, Bush is far more likely to be a TOSSUP here than in Arizona)

[tsuki]

16. Florida...

Kerry all the way!

[saccheradi]

17. I don't know if I've been out of it or not, but...

this is probably one of the most helpful posts I've seen so far... keep it up!!!

[maine_raptor]

18. On Maine....

If you're trying for a "CAUTIOUS outlook", then I would suggest giving 1 EV from Maine to Bush....it may not happen, things do look good here in the 2nd district, but after all you are trying to be cautious.

[darthmix]

19. I see Kerry taking Ohio better than almost anyone now thinks.

I'd put it in the moderate Kerry column. I'm much more worried about Pennsylvania, which Kerry will take, but barely.

Gotta be realistic here: no way is Florida moderate Kerry. It'll be a squeaker, if anything. Florida is a total wild card; we need to fight for it and we need to fight for a map that will let us win without it.

My pessimistic side says chimp will take Nevada comfortably, Virginia easily, and he'll be stronger in New Jersey than we're ready for (but he won't win it.)

The Hawaii polls were a scare tactic; it will go for Kerry easily.

Here's my off-the-wall: Kerry will be a lot stronger in Texas than anyone believes. Many dem groups have put a real effort into Texas purely to have an impact on the popular vote. Kerry won't have any real chance of winning it but it'll give him a big chunk of votes toward the popular. I also wouldn't be surprised if we do better than expected in Lousiana, just because all my grandparents live there, they ALWAYS vote Republican, and this year they're voting for Kerry because they're pissed at chimp over the war and the medicare bill.

[fujiyama]

53. Bush won't get

anymore than 2 points from the last election, mainly due to fear.

Kerry will capture the state easilly and by double digits.

[RememberTheCoup]

20. NEW LIST

I tried to incorporate the suggestions from posts #1-19, but
of course this isn't an exact science, and I had to reconcile
some conflicting suggestions. Here are the changes I made. If
you object to any of them, please let me know. If I get
multiple objections to a change, I can change it back:
 
NV - I had conflicting opinions but more positive than
negative so I am upgrading it from barely Bush to tossup for
now.
FL - I am downgrading Florida from moderate Kerry to weak
Kerry.
ME - I am putting one of Maine's votes in the weak Bush
category.

TX, VA, OH - I've had conflicting opinions about these states
so I'm leaving them as is for now. I may change them when I
get more of a consensus.

Here are some suggestions I received, but I don't want to make
the changes until I get at least one other person who agrees:

GA, LA, MO, CO, PA, HI - Upgrade (make stronger for Kerry).
MN, NH, NJ - Downgrade (make stronger for Bush).


	state 		abbr 	 EV 	2000
--------------------------------------------
1-STRONG BUSH
	Georgia 	GA 	 15 	2
	Indiana 	IN 	 11 	1
	Alabama 	AL 	  9 	2
	Kentucky 	KT 	  8 	1
	South Carolina 	SC 	  8 	1
	Oklahoma 	OK 	  7 	1
	Kansas 		KA 	  6 	1
	Mississippi 	MS 	  6 	1
	Utah 		UT 	  5 	1
	Idaho 		ID 	  4 	1
	Alaska 		AK 	  3 	1
	Montana 	MT 	  3 	1
	North Dakota 	ND 	  3 	1
	South Dakota 	SD 	  3 	1
	Wyoming 	WY 	  3 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 94


2-MODERATE BUSH
	Texas 		TX 	 34 	1
	Tennessee 	TN 	 11 	4
	Louisiana 	LA 	  9 	3
	Nebraska 	NE 	  5 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 59


3-WEAK BUSH
	Virginia 	VA 	 13 	3
	Missouri 	MO 	 11 	4
	West Virginia 	WV 	  5 	3
	Maine 		ME 	  1/4 	7
	---------------------------
	total 			 30


4-BARELY BUSH
	North Carolina 	NC 	 15 	2
	---------------------------
	total 			 15


5-TOSSUP
	Arizona 	AZ 	 10 	3
	Colorado 	CO 	  9 	3
	Nevada 		NV 	  5 	4
	---------------------------
	total 			 24


6-BARELY KERRY
	Florida 	FL 	 27 	5
	Ohio 		OH 	 20 	4
	Wisconsin 	WI 	 10 	5
	Iowa 		IA 	  7 	6
	Arkansas 	AR 	  6 	3
	New Mexico  	NM 	  5 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 75


7-WEAK KERRY
	Pennsylvania 	PA 	 21 	7
	Michigan 	MI 	 17 	7
	Minnesota 	MN 	 10 	6
	Hawaii 		HI 	  4 	9
	New Hampshire 	NH 	  4 	4
	---------------------------
	total 			 56


8-MODERATE KERRY
	New Jersey 	NJ 	 15 	9
	Oregon 		OR 	  7 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 22


9-STRONG KERRY
	California 	CA 	 55 	8
	New York 	NY 	 31 	9
	Illinois 	IL 	 21 	8
	Massachusetts 	MA 	 12 	9
	Washington 	WA 	 11 	7
	Maryland 	MD 	 10 	9
	Connecticut 	CT 	  7 	9
	Maine 		ME 	  3/4 	7
	Rhode Island 	RI 	  4 	9
	Delaware 	DE 	  3 	8
	Dist of Columb 	DC 	  3 	9
	Vermont 	VT 	  3 	8
	---------------------------
	total 			163


Thanks, everybody! Keep those suggestions coming!

[Roland99]

21. Kentucky - Moderate to Weak Bush

In 2000, KY went 15% for Bush. My guess is 7-8% this year.

[RememberTheCoup]

22. kick for the morning crowd

:kick:

[Dzimbowicz]

23. I am in SC

and this state will definitely go to bu$h. However, I have been talking to many people about why I am voting for Kerry. I do not tell them that I am a liberal Democrat (around here that turns people off) but when I talk to them as a veteran, and particularly about the quagmire in Iraq, they seem to listen to me. BTW, I have converted several people who voted for for bu$h last time. The best I feel I can hope for is that SC will be "too close to call" for at least ten minutes Tuesday night.

Go Kerry!

www.veteransforpeace.com

[Comixfan]

24. Looks good except...

Ohio seems to be trending Bush this week bigtime. GOTV can make the difference, though. The key now is turnout!

[depakid]

25. Oregon- strong Kerry 7-10%

Do I get a prize for getting it within range?

[KitSileya]

32. i hope you're right.

I've converted a couple of Republicans to vote Kerry this time around, but most people I know voted Gore in 2000 and will vote Kerry this time around, so no change. And it was unexpectedly close last time.

[blondeatlast]

49. Love your avatar! nt

[Hubert Flottz]

26. I think Kerry has a fair chance in WV!

This state is hurting badly, because of huge job losses and cuts in federal funding! This is the first election year I can remember when the potholes in the roads were left untouched! The people here know that WV can't take four more years of Bush! Many hardcore GOPers have sworn to vote Kerry! Many many new voter registrations! I think WV will go blue! Robert Byrd is campaigning all over the state for Kerry and people turn out to see Mr Byrd!

I also think Ohio will go Blue!

[ulysses]

29. I'm thinking

that GA may be more moderate Bush than strong. That's just a hunch, though.

[RememberTheCoup]

30. *** NEW LIST ***

I've incorporated the following suggestions from posts up
through #29: 

TX - Upgraded from moderate Bush to weak Bush.
OH - Downgraded from barely Kerry to tossup. I expect I'll
continue to get suggestions of where to place Ohio.
GA - Upgraded from strong Bush to moderate Bush

MN - I've had conflicting opinions about Minnesota, so I'm
leaving it as weak Kerry for now. I may change it when I get
more of a consensus.


Here are some suggestions I received, but I don't want to make
the changes until I get at least one other person who agrees:

LA, MO, CO, PA, HI, KY, OR, WV - Upgrade (make stronger for
Kerry).
NH, NJ - Downgrade (make stronger for Bush).


I wonder if anyone has any comments on Arkansas or New Mexico?
I tend to think tossup might be a better category than barely
Kerry, especially if I'm downgrading Ohio, which I see as
stronger than AR and NM.


	state 		abbr 	 EV 	2000
--------------------------------------------
1-STRONG BUSH
	Indiana 	IN 	 11 	1
	Alabama 	AL 	  9 	2
	Kentucky 	KT 	  8 	1
	South Carolina 	SC 	  8 	1
	Oklahoma 	OK 	  7 	1
	Kansas 		KA 	  6 	1
	Mississippi 	MS 	  6 	1
	Utah 		UT 	  5 	1
	Idaho 		ID 	  4 	1
	Alaska 		AK 	  3 	1
	Montana 	MT 	  3 	1
	North Dakota 	ND 	  3 	1
	South Dakota 	SD 	  3 	1
	Wyoming 	WY 	  3 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 79


2-MODERATE BUSH
	Georgia 	GA 	 15 	2
	Tennessee 	TN 	 11 	4
	Louisiana 	LA 	  9 	3
	Nebraska 	NE 	  5 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 40


3-WEAK BUSH
	Texas 		TX 	 34 	1
	Virginia 	VA 	 13 	3
	Missouri 	MO 	 11 	4
	West Virginia 	WV 	  5 	3
	Maine 		ME 	  1/4 	7
	---------------------------
	total 			 64


4-BARELY BUSH
	North Carolina 	NC 	 15 	2
	---------------------------
	total 			 15


5-TOSSUP
	Ohio 		OH 	 20 	4
	Arizona 	AZ 	 10 	3
	Colorado 	CO 	  9 	3
	Nevada 		NV 	  5 	4
	---------------------------
	total 			 44


6-BARELY KERRY
	Florida 	FL 	 27 	5
	Wisconsin 	WI 	 10 	5
	Iowa 		IA 	  7 	6
	Arkansas 	AR 	  6 	3
	New Mexico  	NM 	  5 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 55


7-WEAK KERRY
	Pennsylvania 	PA 	 21 	7
	Michigan 	MI 	 17 	7
	Minnesota 	MN 	 10 	6
	Hawaii 		HI 	  4 	9
	New Hampshire 	NH 	  4 	4
	---------------------------
	total 			 56


8-MODERATE KERRY
	New Jersey 	NJ 	 15 	9
	Oregon 		OR 	  7 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 22


9-STRONG KERRY
	California 	CA 	 55 	8
	New York 	NY 	 31 	9
	Illinois 	IL 	 21 	8
	Massachusetts 	MA 	 12 	9
	Washington 	WA 	 11 	7
	Maryland 	MD 	 10 	9
	Connecticut 	CT 	  7 	9
	Maine 		ME 	  3/4 	7
	Rhode Island 	RI 	  4 	9
	Delaware 	DE 	  3 	8
	Dist of Columb 	DC 	  3 	9
	Vermont 	VT 	  3 	8
	---------------------------
	total 			163


Thanks, everybody! Keep those suggestions coming!

[Zynx]

31. Bush is not winning that Maine district. He didn't last time and he won't

this time.

[RememberTheCoup]

34. How would you categorize that one district?

Barely Kerry?

[maine_raptor]

45. Ah Zynx...I live in the district,, trust me

RemembertheCoup: I'd call it a Toss Up to Barely Bush.

On the ballot this year is a statewide property tax cap (clone of CA's Prop 13) that will be bringing out the "cut taxes" crowd in large numbers. That could have more of an impact than some think.

I'm confident, but have fingers, toes, and other body parts crossed.

[MockSwede]

67. 2nd District MAINE

I'm here. Maine can split 2 and 2 but not 3 and 1 so cannot have 3/4, unless that is a 'fudge factor'.

We're working hard here in 2nd district. Been volunteering for past 6 weeks. Calling into NH, too.

My take is that this district will got K/E, too. VERY enthusiastic, motivated K/Es when I call. Neutral or 'no comment' or 'it's a private matter' when I get a Repub. Very weak * support, except for dying die-hards. (like across the street...)

I see an "* embarrassed me as a Republican since I voted for him in 2000" undercurrent here. My wife (a very good read of individuals and groups - almost ESP) says that she expects many folks who voted for * last time to NOT vote for him this time, not vote for K/E because they cannot bring themselves to it, and JUST STAY HOME!

They Bear Baiting Ban referendum will probably get more Repuke votes that * - that lying imbecile ASS.

'nuf said.

[RememberTheCoup]

35. I'd like to point out, for those of you who haven't done the math yet...

...that as our categories now stand, Bush could win all the states we have in the tossup category (Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada) AND Florida (currently in the barely Kerry category) and it would still be a tied game. Throw in that one Maine district Zynx mentioned, and there's your Kerry win.

However, please continue to add your suggestions. Is anyone worried about New Hampshire? It went for Bush last time by 48% to 47%, but no one to my recollection has suggested placing it any lower than barely Kerry this time. Was there a Nader effect in 2000? Which states had a strong Nader presence in 2000 -- I seem to remember OR and WI and possibly NM?

[RememberTheCoup]

36. the Nader effect

Never mind, I researched it myself. New Hampshire was indeed a victim of the Nader effect in 200. In fact www.thenaderfactor.com says "Nader’s presence on the ballot in 2000 cost Gore two states -- Florida and New Hampshire -- either of which would have given Gore the presidency."

Other states that had a Nader presence were: IA, NM, OR, and WI, but they all ended up going for Gore anyway.

I don't think Nader will be a factor this year, but I'm feeling a lot better about NH knowing that Gore's loss there in 2000 was attributable to the Nader effect.

[goodhue]

39. your list of states that had Nader presence in 2000 is not complete

Nader got 5.2% in MN.

[RememberTheCoup]

40. true

I should have said states that had a Nader presence AND a very close vote (1% or less):
http://www.thenaderfactor.com/popup_study6/

States that were not as close (2-6%) but still had a Nader presence include MN, ME, WA, and AZ, among others:
http://www.thenaderfactor.com/popup_study7/

Thanks!

[Tesibria]

69. Hawaii numbers

... what are the most recent Hawaii numbers -- the most recent ones I can find are from last Sunday and show Bush 1 pt ahead.

[chaumont58]

37. I'm going out on a limb: Kerry wins California!

hehe.

[chimpy the poopthrower]

38. I'm worried about Arkansas. It wasn't strong for Gore in 2000.

In '92 and '96, I assume there was a strong home state effect for Clinton in Arkansas. How did that play out in 2000? Would Gore have had a residual home state effect in AR just from being Clinton's VP? Would he have experienced a reverse effect due to the perception that he was trying to distance himself from Clinton? Or was there no effect at all?

We also have to consider how much Clinton campaigning for Kerry in AR will help Kerry there. Because of his heart surgery, he wasn't able to campaign as much as anyone would have liked. Any Arkansa'ans who can provide a little perspective here?

[RememberTheCoup]

41. kick for the noon crowd

;-)

[twenty2strings]

43. arkansas a weak 6

but it is better than it wuz!:kick:

[RememberTheCoup]

44. thanks

Why are DUers confident about Arkansas? Is it because of jobs or Clinton or GOTV or what?

[jerryster]

47. My view

state abbr EV 2000
--------------------------------------------
1-STRONG BUSH
Arizona AZ 10
Arkansas AR
Georgia GA 15 2
Indiana IN 11 1
Alabama AL 9 2
Kentucky KT 8 1
South Carolina SC 8 1
Oklahoma OK 7 1
Kansas KA 6 1
Mississippi MS 6 1
Utah UT 5 1
Idaho ID 4 1
Alaska AK 3 1
Louisiana LA
Missouri MO
Montana MT 3 1
North Dakota ND 3 1
South Dakota SD 3 1
Texas Tx
West Virginia WV
Wyoming WY 3 1
---------------------------



2-MODERATE BUSH
Iowa IA
Tennessee TN 11 4
Nebraska NE 5 1
Nevada NV
North Carolina NC
---------------------------



3-WEAK BUSH
Virginia VA 13 3
New Mexico NM
---------------------------
5-TOSSUP
Minnesota MN
Hawaii HI
Michigan MI
Ohio OH
New Hampshire NH
Florida FL

7-WEAK KERRY
Pennsylvania PA 21 7
--------------------------
8-MODERATE KERRY
New Jersey NJ 15 9
Colorado CO 9
-----------------------
9-STRONG KERRY
California CA 55 8
New York NY 31 9
Illinois IL 21 8
Massachusetts MA 12 9
Washington WA 11 7
Maryland MD 10 9
Connecticut CT 7 9
Maine ME 4 7
Oregon OR
Rhode Island RI 4 9
Delaware DE 3 8
Dist of Columb DC 3 9
Vermont VT 3 8
---------------------------

[RememberTheCoup]

48. Wow, you have some drastic changes!

Only two of your changes involve jumps of one category. The rest involve jumps of two to five categories:

one-category jumps:
GA - downgrade moderate Bush (2) to strong Bush (1)
FL - downgrade barely Kerry (6) to tossup (5)

two-category jumps:
TX - downgrade weak Bush (3) to strong Bush (1)
WV - downgrade weak Bush (3) to strong Bush (1)
NC - downgrade barely Bush (4) to moderate Bush (2)
MI - downgrade weak Kerry (7) to tossup (5)
MN - downgrade weak Kerry (7) to tossup (5)
HI - downgrade weak Kerry (7) to tossup (5)
NH - downgrade weak Kerry (7) to tossup (5)

three-category jumps:
CO - upgrade tossup (5) to moderate Kerry (8)
NV - downgrade tossup (5) to moderate Bush (2)
NM - downgrade barely Kerry (6) to weak Bush (3)

four-category jumps:
AZ - downgrade tossup (5) to strong Bush (1)
IA - downgrade barely Kerry (6) to moderate Bush (2)

five-category-jumps:
AR - downgrade barely Kerry (6) to strong Bush (1)

Do those changes look right to you? Interestingly, Colorado was the only state you upgraded.

Well, I'll take your suggestions into consideration for my next list, but I like to have agreement from multiple DUers before making changes, and I like to make changes one category jump at a time. What do you think of the one district in Maine -- think it will go to Kerry or Bush?

[jerryster]

61. Forgot something

You asked about the one district in Maine. Truth is I just don't know. Don't quite get their shtick.

[blondeatlast]

50. AZ=weak Bush.

It all depends on Maricopa County, generally very red territory, but lots of independents here, too.

I still call it for Bush, but just by a hair--and doing my best to make it blue!

[RememberTheCoup]

51. *** NEW LIST ***

I've incorporated the following suggestions from posts up
through #50: 

AR - Downgraded from barely Kerry to tossup.
AZ - Downgraded from tossup to barely Bush
ME - One vote upgraded from weak Bush to tossup
TX - Downgraded from weak Bush to moderate Bush


CO, GA - I've had conflicting opinions about these states, so
I'm leaving them as is for now. Please add your input on
whether you think Colorado is tossup or barely Kerry, and
whether Georgia is moderate Bush or strong Bush


Here are some other suggestions I received, but I don't want
to make the changes until I get at least one other person who
agrees:

KY, LA, MO, OR, PA - Upgrade (make stronger for Kerry).

FL, IA, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH - Downgrade (make
stronger for Bush).

HI, WV - Conflicting suggestions. Waiting for more input.



	state 		abbr 	 EV 	2000
--------------------------------------------
1-STRONG BUSH
	Indiana 	IN 	 11 	1
	Alabama 	AL 	  9 	2
	Kentucky 	KT 	  8 	1
	South Carolina 	SC 	  8 	1
	Oklahoma 	OK 	  7 	1
	Kansas 		KA 	  6 	1
	Mississippi 	MS 	  6 	1
	Utah 		UT 	  5 	1
	Idaho 		ID 	  4 	1
	Alaska 		AK 	  3 	1
	Montana 	MT 	  3 	1
	North Dakota 	ND 	  3 	1
	South Dakota 	SD 	  3 	1
	Wyoming 	WY 	  3 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 79


2-MODERATE BUSH
	Texas 		TX 	 34 	1
	Georgia 	GA 	 15 	2
	Tennessee 	TN 	 11 	4
	Louisiana 	LA 	  9 	3
	Nebraska 	NE 	  5 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 74


3-WEAK BUSH
	Virginia 	VA 	 13 	3
	Missouri 	MO 	 11 	4
	West Virginia 	WV 	  5 	3
	---------------------------
	total 			 29


4-BARELY BUSH
	North Carolina 	NC 	 15 	2
	Arizona 	AZ 	 10 	3
	---------------------------
	total 			 25


5-TOSSUP
	Ohio 		OH 	 20 	4
	Colorado 	CO 	  9 	3
	Arkansas 	AR 	  6 	3
	Nevada 		NV 	  5 	4
	Maine 		ME 	  1/4 	7
	---------------------------
	total 			 41


6-BARELY KERRY
	Florida 	FL 	 27 	5
	Wisconsin 	WI 	 10 	5
	Iowa 		IA 	  7 	6
	New Mexico  	NM 	  5 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 49


7-WEAK KERRY
	Pennsylvania 	PA 	 21 	7
	Michigan 	MI 	 17 	7
	Minnesota 	MN 	 10 	6
	Hawaii 		HI 	  4 	9
	New Hampshire 	NH 	  4 	4
	---------------------------
	total 			 56


8-MODERATE KERRY
	New Jersey 	NJ 	 15 	9
	Oregon 		OR 	  7 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 22


9-STRONG KERRY
	California 	CA 	 55 	8
	New York 	NY 	 31 	9
	Illinois 	IL 	 21 	8
	Massachusetts 	MA 	 12 	9
	Washington 	WA 	 11 	7
	Maryland 	MD 	 10 	9
	Connecticut 	CT 	  7 	9
	Maine 		ME 	  3/4 	7
	Rhode Island 	RI 	  4 	9
	Delaware 	DE 	  3 	8
	Dist of Columb 	DC 	  3 	9
	Vermont 	VT 	  3 	8
	---------------------------
	total 			163


Thanks, everybody! Keep those suggestions coming!

[Apple Smoothie]

52. My predictions:

State/Electoral Votes
Strong Bush ------------
Alaska/3
Utah/5
S. Dakota/3
N. Dakota/3
Idaho/4
Wyoming/3
Nebraska/5 (All five)
Kansas/6
Montana/3
Indiana/11
Alabama/9
Georgia/15
Mississippi/6
S. Carolina/8
Oklahoma/7
Moderate Bush: ------------
Texas/34
Louisiana/9
Kentucky/8
Weak Bush ------------
West Virginia/5
Arizona/10
Barely Bush: ------------
Virginia/13
North Carolina/15
Tennessee/11
Tossup: ------------
Missouri/11
Arkansas/6
Nevada/5
Colorado/9
Barely Kerry: ------------
Ohio/20
Florida/27
Iowa/7
Wisconsin/10
New Mexico/5
Weak Kerry: ------------
Pennsylvania/21
Oregon/7
New Hampshire/4
Maine/4 (All four)
Moderate Kerry: ------------
New Jersey/15
Michigan/17
Minnesota/10
Washington/11
Strong Kerry: ------------
California/55
Illinois/21
Hawaii*/4
New York/31
Vermont/3
Massachusetts/12
Connecticut/7
Rhode Island/4
Maryland/10
D.C./3
Delaware/3


*The recent Hawaii polls were bogus- they over sampled Republicans by around 11%! Hawaii has only voted twice for a republican president, since it became as state – 1972 and 1984, both complete landslides for the Republican candidate. It also went for Gore by about 18% in 2000. No way Hawaii is anything less than moderate Kerry, unless bush wins Massachusetts that is!

Edit: Formating and Typo

[Progress]

56. We should not depend on FL.

It should not be any higher than tossup because we don't know how many votes will be lost to dirty tricks.

Ohio = barely Kerry
Arkansas, Colorado = barely Bush (to be safe)
Hawaii = moderate Kerry
New Jersey = strong Kerry

[RememberTheCoup]

57. I'm seeing a lot of optimism WRT Arkansas

...but no one will tell me why. :shrug:

[jerryster]

60. Re: new list

KY, LA, MO, OR, PA - Upgrade (make stronger for Kerry).

FL, IA, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, OH - Downgrade (make
stronger for Bush).

HI, WV - Conflicting suggestions. Waiting for more input.

I'm sorry. I just don't see how we can put Missouri in Kerry's column. I'd love to be wrong as hell about it but I just don't see it.
And Louisiana?

Upside, no way I give Bush Florida in his column. The Miami Herald had an article that said Kerry is so far ahead of Bush in Dade county that it will be hard for Bush to make it up thru the rest of the state. Still, I call Florida a toss-up. Also, I think Arkansas and Nevada are lost to us as well.

Re: Hawaii and West Virginia. The former should be ours, the latter is Bush's, but I can't say at what strength for either.

[Apple Smoothie]

54. Kick!

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

[RememberTheCoup]

55. thanks!

:hi:

[Apple Smoothie]

58. I hate to say this...

but the thread has sank to the bottom. You might consider restarting it.

[Apple Smoothie]

59. Oh.

maybe not. double Kick. lol

[Roland99]

63. Kentucky's Abbreviation is KY, not KT!

[RememberTheCoup]

64. Oops! Thanks, Roland!

I actually did know that, I just made a typo. LOL! I'll fix it next time I post a new list.

:hi:

[AnIndependentTexan]

65. Texas for Kerry

[MockSwede]

66. MAINE in a landslide

Going Kerry - I'm helping out in NH calling and it's looking better for Kerry, too. This is my first hand volunteer opinion

[flaminbats]

68. I added more categories to clearly define the differences between states..

1.very strong Bush
Wyoming WY 3 1
Idaho ID 4 1
Utah UT 5 1
Kansas KA 6 1
Alaska AK 3 1

2.moderately strong Bush
Alabama AL 9 2
South Carolina SC 8 1
Oklahoma OK 7 1
Mississippi MS 6 1
Indiana IN 11 1

3.tossup between strong and moderate Bush
North Dakota ND 3 1
South Dakota SD 3 1
Montana MT 3 1
Georgia GA 15 2
Kentucky KT 8 1

4.strongly moderate Bush
Texas TX 34 1

5.moderately moderate Bush
Nebraska NE 5 1

6.weakly moderate Bush
Tennessee TN 11 4
Louisiana LA 9 3

7.strongly weak Bush
Missouri MO 11 4

8.moderately weak Bush
West Virginia WV 5 3

9.weakly weak Bush
Virginia VA 13 3

10.strongly barely Bush
Nevada NV 5 4

11.moderately barely Bush
Arkansas AR 6 3

12.weakly barely Bush
North Carolina NC 15 2

13.strongly tossed up
Ohio OH 20 4

14.moderately tossed up
Florida FL 27 5

15.weakly tossed up
New Mexico NM 5 5

16.strongly barely Kerry
New Hampshire NH 4 4

17.moderately barely Kerry
Pennsylvania PA 21 7

18.weakly barely Kerry
Iowa IA 7 6

19.strongly weak Kerry
Michigan MI 17 7

20.moderately weak Kerry
Minnesota MN 10 6

21.weakly weak Kerry
Hawaii HI 4 9


22.strongly moderate Kerry
Oregon OR 7 5

23.moderately moderate Kerry
New Jersey NJ 15 9

24.weakly moderate Kerry
Maine ME 4 7

25.strongly strong Kerry
Dist of Columb DC 3 9
New York NY 31 9
Massachusetts MA 12 9
Washington WA 11 7
Rhode Island RI 4 9

26.moderately strong Kerry
Maryland MD 10 9
Illinois IL 21 8
Connecticut CT 7 9
Vermont VT 3 8

27.weakly strong Kerry
Delaware DE 3 8


like my improvements? :crazy:

[RememberTheCoup]

70. Wow, thanks!

A bit too many categories for my taste, but I'll incorporate your suggestions into my next list. :)

[RememberTheCoup]

71. kick for the nighttime crowd

:kick:

[RememberTheCoup]

72. *** NEW LIST ***

I've incorporated suggestions from all posts up through #70.
Remember, these are on a scale from 1 (strong Bush) to 9
(strong Kerry) with 5 being the tossup category: 

HI - Upgraded from weak Kerry (7) to moderate Kerry (8)
ME - Votes split 2-2 in weak Kerry (7) and strong Kerry (9)
MO - Upgraded from weak Bush (3) to barely Bush (4)
NV - Downgraded from tossup (5) to barely Bush (4)
OH - Upgraded from tossup (5) to barely Kerry (6)

As I've been saying all along, these predictions are not as
cautious as I would prefer, but DUers seem optimistic, and I
want this to reflect a DU consensus. I'm almost, but not
quite, ready to downgrade FL and NH based on DUer input, but
I'll wait till I get a little more agreement on that; there
are conflicting opinions on those states.


	state 		abbr 	 EV 	2000
--------------------------------------------
1-STRONG BUSH
	Indiana 	IN 	 11 	1
	Alabama 	AL 	  9 	2
	Kentucky 	KY 	  8 	1
	South Carolina 	SC 	  8 	1
	Oklahoma 	OK 	  7 	1
	Kansas 		KA 	  6 	1
	Mississippi 	MS 	  6 	1
	Utah 		UT 	  5 	1
	Idaho 		ID 	  4 	1
	Alaska 		AK 	  3 	1
	Montana 	MT 	  3 	1
	North Dakota 	ND 	  3 	1
	South Dakota 	SD 	  3 	1
	Wyoming 	WY 	  3 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 79


2-MODERATE BUSH
	Texas 		TX 	 34 	1
	Georgia 	GA 	 15 	2
	Tennessee 	TN 	 11 	4
	Louisiana 	LA 	  9 	3
	Nebraska 	NE 	  5 	1
	---------------------------
	total 			 74


3-WEAK BUSH
	Virginia 	VA 	 13 	3
	West Virginia 	WV 	  5 	3
	---------------------------
	total 			 18


4-BARELY BUSH
	North Carolina 	NC 	 15 	2
	Missouri 	MO 	 11 	4
	Arizona 	AZ 	 10 	3
	Nevada 		NV 	  5 	4
	---------------------------
	total 			 41


5-TOSSUP
	Colorado 	CO 	  9 	3
	Arkansas 	AR 	  6 	3
	---------------------------
	total 			 15


6-BARELY KERRY
	Florida 	FL 	 27 	5
	Ohio 		OH 	 20 	4
	Wisconsin 	WI 	 10 	5
	Iowa 		IA 	  7 	6
	New Mexico  	NM 	  5 	5
	---------------------------
	total 			 69


7-WEAK KERRY
	Pennsylvania 	PA 	 21 	7
	Michigan 	MI 	 17 	7
	Minnesota 	MN 	 10 	6
	New Hampshire 	NH 	  4 	4
	Maine 		ME 	  2/4 	7
	---------------------------
	total 			 54


8-MODERATE KERRY
	New Jersey 	NJ 	 15 	9
	Oregon 		OR 	  7 	5
	Hawaii 		HI 	  4 	9
	---------------------------
	total 			 26


9-STRONG KERRY
	California 	CA 	 55 	8
	New York 	NY 	 31 	9
	Illinois 	IL 	 21 	8
	Massachusetts 	MA 	 12 	9
	Washington 	WA 	 11 	7
	Maryland 	MD 	 10 	9
	Connecticut 	CT 	  7 	9
	Maine 		ME 	  2/4 	7
	Rhode Island 	RI 	  4 	9
	Delaware 	DE 	  3 	8
	Dist of Columb 	DC 	  3 	9
	Vermont 	VT 	  3 	8
	---------------------------
	total 			162

Keep those suggestions coming!


 
 

[RememberTheCoup]

73. Why does this thread keep sinking?

I would think discussing the relative strength of each state would be an important topic. I see lots of threads where people post their own personal predictions or where individual states are discussed. I'm trying to consolidate all those discussions into one thread where we hash out these predictions together. But this thread keeps sinking. Why? :shrug:

Is it the title? Is the original post too wordy? Should I start a new thread with a different title? Somebody clue me in, please.