Kerry has lead in Dade, poll says

[Nicholas_J]

A Herald poll conducted by Zogby International showed Sen. John Kerry leading among voters in Miami-Dade, but he has made little gain in the Cuban community.

BY OSCAR CORRAL

[e-mail]


Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry holds a comfortable lead among Miami-Dade County voters, much as former Vice President Al Gore did in 2000, a Herald poll shows.

The biggest exception is the Cuban-American vote, which still overwhelmingly favors President Bush.

The poll, conducted for The Herald by Zogby International, shows Kerry favored by 54 percent to Bush's 41 percent. But among Cuban Americans, a voting bloc targeted by the Democrats, nearly 79 percent say they back Bush.

''If you talk strictly numbers, Kerry is in very good shape in Miami-Dade,'' pollster John Zogby said in an interview. ``But if you're talking about intensity, Miami is a testimonial in many ways to where we are as a country, high intensity polarization.''

For the poll, 750 likely voters were called from Oct. 22 through


http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/10023125.htm

The good part in this is that in order for BUsh to win in FLorida, it is necessary for him to capture at least 83 percent of the Cuban vote. Anything less makes it almost impossbile for Bush to won FLorida.

For Bush to take Florida, he al;so needed to get at least 40 percent of the Jewish vote and while a recent article in the Jerusalem Post indicated a small increase for Bush among Jewish voters, it fell far beloew the 40 percent target.