Here's how wrong the polls were in 2000

[quaoar]

This was posted at Kos:

This is CNN the day before the 2000 election:

BLITZER: And now, let's take a look at the latest poll numbers. The new CNN/"USA Today" Gallup Tracking Poll results are being released at this hour. It shows George W. Bush with 48 percent, Al Gore 43 percent, Ralph Nader with 4 percent, Pat Buchanan with 1 percent.

And those numbers are similar to other tracking polls. Take a look: ABC's poll has Bush at 49 percent, Gore at 45 percent; The Washington Post, Bush at 48 percent, Gore at 46 percent; the NBC-Wall Street Journal tracking poll, Bush at 47 percent, Gore 44 percent. And both the CBS and MSNBC-Reuters-Zogby tracking polls have Bush at 46, Gore at 44 percent.

[cubsfan forever]

1. Blitzer was a chickenhawk

whore then, and he still is one.

Professor 2

[high density]

2. The pollsters are currently just was wrong as they were in 2000 election.

The real poll percentage was Gore 48.38%/Bush 47.87%/Nader 2.74%...

They were way off on Gore's numbers, and I have a gut feeling that they're wrong again but probably by an even greater margin this time around.

[CitySky]

5. thanks

for reminding us of the stats

[welshTerrier2]

3. the polls are absurd ...

we've already seen poor sample selection, failure to poll newly registered voters, failure to reach "cell phone" voters and a total inability to accurately understand voter turnout ...

right now, it is estimated that only 3% of the electorate is still undecided ... and yet, even within the same polling organization, we are still seeing 3 and 4% swings in who is leading ... it's absurd ... for this to be true, given the low percentage of undecided voters, it means that a fairly significant number of voters are regularly switching from one candidate to the other ...

it seems to me the electorate is far too polarized for this to be likely ... polls are fine to produce a vague sense of what's going on ... they're great if one candidate is way ahead ... but in a race like this year's, they will not be able to tell you very much ...

btw, Kerry will win this election ... i don't need no stinking poll to tell me that ...

[nhc1978]

4. thanks.. a great reminder