Early Election Night Indicators - between 8:00 PM - 9:00

[featherman]

Watch for this one:
"Virginia is currently too close to call"

Others from eastern time zone:
NH for Kerry
WV for Kerry or too close to call
NC too close to call

[BootinUp]

1. I agree -eom

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. True. Also watch the numbers coming in from Indiana.

Bush won 57% to 41% last time. Polls indicate while a safe red State, that Bush is not polling as high as he should be. There could be some discontent with Bush.

[featherman]

3. IN is in CST zone, I believe

[Tansy_Gold]

8. No, Indiana is in EST, except for NW parts by Chicago

.

[NinetySix]

9. But it's those NW parts like Gary that are blue.

No call for IN will be made by 8 EST.

[featherman]

10. Interesting... I didn't know that

looks like it is one of those states like AZ that is in one zone or the other depending on time of year (Daylight Savings)

http://www.worldtimezone.com/time-us12.html

[AntiCoup2K4]

32. True. neither Indiana nor Arizona observe Daylight Savings Time.

Don't know the story on why this is the case, but I blame the Quayle family because they are tied to both states.

[stevietheman]

14. Also look at KY

I think IN's and KY's polls close at 6:00 PM ET.

Therefore, their results always appear first.

Bush is well ahead in both states and will indeed win them both, but we should look at the percentages to see how close they are compared to the prevailing polls before the election.

[American Tragedy]

22. I really don't think there's a chance

Here in Louisville, I think one gets a distorted view of the state's leanings, since downtown crawls with Kerry/Edwards signs and stickers. My UK friends tell me there's some similar stuff goin on in Lexington, though I don't know personally. I have little doubt that Jefferson county will go Kerry. However, the polls tell a different story for the state of Kentucky.

I have rarely been to the more obscure parts of Kentucky, so once again I am myopic about the political leanings of the whole state. But, from what I've read I suspect that the Bush supporters are, ironically, in the areas that are most stricken with poverty, most dependent on outside subsidies, and most likely to suffer from a Bush presidency. It is really mystifying and I don't know what can be done in the foreseeable future about this.

[tedoll78]

4. I have an early indicator.

The 30 or so residents of Dixville Notch, NH vote at midnight on Election Day. The town clerk then announces the winner. (C-SPAN usually covers this event live.) If Kerry wins, it's all over. Democrats seldom win there, although Clinton did in 1992. Even if Kerry comes close, it's a great sign.

As far as whole states are concerned, I think New Hampshire is a good measure. It leans right, its polls close early, its votes are counted quickly due to its small size, Nader is a factor, and GOTV troops are everywhere on the ground. If Kerry wins NH by a large margin early-on in the evening, it's a very good sign. If Kerry squeaks-by, it'll be a nail-biter. And if Kerry loses.. break-out the Maalox.

[Clinton Crusader]

12. Is there a site with info on this?

Im supposing they went for * in 2000, I truly dont remember. Id like to see the history.

[deadmessengers]

5. PA

How about Pennsylvania being called for Kerry one minute after the polls close? That would be a good sign, right?

[featherman]

7. PA is a lock IMO... anything but a steady Kerry lead or early call

would be an early BAD indicator.

[tedoll78]

6. I have an even earlier one.

The 30 or so residents of Dixville Notch, NH vote at midnight on Election Day. The town clerk then announces the winner. (C-SPAN usually covers this event live.) If Kerry wins, it's all over. Democrats seldom win there, although Clinton did in 1992. Even if Kerry comes close, it's a great sign.

As far as whole states are concerned, I think New Hampshire is a good measure. It leans right, its polls close early, its votes are counted quickly due to its small size, Nader is a factor, and GOTV troops are everywhere on the ground. If Kerry wins NH by a large margin early-on in the evening, it's a very good sign. If Kerry squeaks-by, it'll be a nail-biter. And if Kerry loses.. break-out the Maalox.

[adapa]

16. NH will be blue

From the mountains of New Hampshire-
I'm not the betting type but I'd put $ on a Blue NH come election night.
And yes, Dixville Notch is a gem <;-)> of course it went for Clark in the primaries.

[Catt03]

23. Maybe Clark should make one more visit to Dixville

[michigandem2]

11. have no reason to believe this but a gut instinct says

NC will or could possibly go blue...I just have it in the back of my mind...that might be our first surprise of the evening...

[Lex]

13. This North Carolinian feels exactly the same way.

I've *NEVER* seen the Democrats energized in this state like this before.

[Road Scholar]

15. You go uh..uh.. you Tar heel !!! n/t

:)

[many a good man]

17. "Numerous reports of voter intimidation throughout the country"

"UN Election observers held hostage by radical right wing group"

"Senator Bunning swinging naked from flagpole on 50th floor of Knoxville office building"

"Bush's only lead is in home state of Texas"

[deadmessengers]

18. Bunning? Knoxville?

Somehow I don't think the people of Knoxville, Tennessee would get that worked up over an election in Kentucky.

[Renew Deal]

20. The guy IS confused.

:silly:

[deadmessengers]

27. Very true

I guess Alzheimer's patients do have a tendency to run off.

[many a good man]

21. He's so crazy...

He wound up in the wrong state. Claims aliens picked him up in a space ship and took him out of Nashville. At least according to Fox News....

[Renew Deal]

19. I agree on VA

I think that might be a sign.

[johnkerryyip145]

24. i am so excited for election day

i am definitely *NOT* a morning person but i *will* get up bright and early to go vote foy my boy Kerry. God bless America!

[Buns_of_Fire]

28. Welcome to DU

:hi:
My mother (who is probably even less of a morning person than you are! :-) ) asked me when the polls open here ("here" is a little Appalachian hamlet in SW Virginia). I said they open at 6. She said, "So, do you mind getting there about 5:45?"

Background: She's in her 80's, been apolitical since Kennedy-Nixon, hadn't even been registered to vote for the last 15 years or so... But but she can't wait to get in there and vote to send boosh* packing. If she's any indication, Virginia is definitely in play... :thumbsup:

[WolverineDG]

25. Breaking News

"It appears that Texas has gone for Kerry." :P

might not happen until late because the polls don't close in el paso until 7pm mountain time.

dg

[jab105]

26. Early indicators...NH , OH, and PA...once those are safe...

then hold your breath for FL, MI, and WI...if we get those six, we got it...even if we get 5 of the six, we win...

If we get four or less, then its gonna be a bad night...

[fishwax]

29. Four is still pretty okay

as long as OH and PA are two of those. I've got this feeling that they're going to wait a loooooong time to call FL, considering the events the last time around.

[fishwax]

30. West Virginia

I hope/expect to see NH. I'm not fully confident about NC. But if WV is too close to call, I'll be feeling pretty good about our chances.

Of course, four years ago when I heard FL called for Gore as I was driving home, I knew we'd one it, and we all know how that turned out :(:(

[fishwax]

31. Also, New Jersey

I know we'll win New Jersey, but if the early results show Kerry in the solid double digits, I'll feel like this super-turnout talk is something we can probably count on.

[missouri dem]

33. I think that we may have a pretty good idea by noon

on Tuesday. If the media reports massive turnout at the polls then w* can start packing.