Rasmussen judged one of most inaccurate polls in 2000!

[TexasSissy]

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

A statement by the National Council on Public Polls'
Polling Review Board

January 3, 2001

PRESIDENTIAL POLL PERFORMANCE 2000

(snip)

The 2000 election was a tie between Bush and Gore and was the closest election since the Kennedy-Nixon election in 1960. Democrat Gore had a slight edge in the CBS and Zogby polls, while seven of the other polls leaned to Republican Bush. The Harris poll had it tied. Four years ago, all 9 polls erred in favor of overstating Democratic Clinton. Challenger Nader was overstated by 7 of the 10 polls this year. Two got the Nader vote correct. All other polls overstated Nader's vote. Third party candidates typically get less support in the election than they do in the final pre-election polls.

Two other organizations used methods that previously had not been used. Harris Interactive conducted its polls on the Internet among a panel of e-mail users and forecast a tie. Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll was off by 4.5 percentage points on each of the top two candidates. Rasmussen had its interviews conducted by a computer playing a recorded voice with no live interviewer intervening.


Polls Error
Harris Interactive 0.0%
Rasmussen 4.5


2000-Preliminary Gore Bush Nader Undecided Other
Election Results 48% 48% 3% 1%
Zogby 48% 46% 5% 0% 1%
CBS 45% 44% 4% 5% 2%
Harris (Phone) 47% 47% 5% 0% 1%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today 46% 48% 4% 0% 2%
Pew Research 47% 49% 4% 0% 0%
IBD/CSM/TIPP 46% 48% 4% 0% 2%
ICR/Politics Now 44% 46% 7% 1% 2%
NBC/WSJ 44% 47% 3% 4% 2%
ABC/WashPost 45% 48% 3% 3% 1%
Battleground 45% 50% 4% 0% 1%


Alternative Methods
Harris Interactive 47% 47% 4% 0% 2%
Rasmussen 49% 40% 4%
********************************
(end of article)

CURRENT RASMUSSEN POLL RESULTS FOR 2004 (10/30/04):
Bush 48% Kerry 47% (w/leaners incl., it's 48.8 B vs. 48.3 K)
Bush Job Approval - 50%
Florida - Bush 50% Kerry 45%
Ohio - Bush 50% Kerry 46%

If like in 2000, Rasmussen is several percentage points WRONG, slanted to the RIGHT, then Kerry's position is looking pretty good!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. He Has Changed His Methodology To Reflect Prior Turnouts...

38% Dem



35% Puke


27% Indy

[TexasSissy]

2. He uses computer pollsters (automated ph. pollsters) in 2000.

Don't know if he does that this time. In any case, his was the most incorrect results in 2000. How good he is, if he changed his methods, remains to be seen. He's not proven accurate, like many of the other polls are.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. He's Still RoboPolling As Is SurveyUSA

nt

[snowbear]

4. Rasmussen incredibly UNRELIABLE

He's not even taken seriously among most media networks as a reliable polling source.

When you consider his background, it's incredible that we even discuss him --- or his polls --- on this site.

He's a GOP HACK.

[Quixote1818]

5. Check out this site. It shows Poll Bias

http://tis.goringe.net/pop/bias.html

[RememberTheCoup]

6. is there a link to Harris Interactive?

Thanks in advance.

[TexasSissy]

7. www.harrisinteractive.com

Then click on the "The Harris Poll" on the right side of the screen (in a list of links - the poll is one of the last links).