ride it out, folks

[fishwax]

This tape and the initial spin may look bad right now. The truth is that, for all his failure on the subject, bush seems to get a knee-jerk bump in the polls from events like this. If this tape had come out on Sunday or Monday, then that might be a problem.

But the tape came out on Friday. Which means this initial "this tape is good for bush" cycle will wear itself out by the end of the weekend. If we are diligently and steadfastly keep our point of view alive to the media, then when this initial cycle fades, the second reaction will be "gosh, kerry said that bush let obl go, and now here obl is. And we could have had obl in tora bora, but instead we went into Iraq." And then it will be Monday night, and I think the cycle for this story will be timed in our favor.

Think of the Mary Cheney lesbian story. At first the right hammered on it, and our side was taken aback for a couple of hours. For one or two days, all the news talk was about how low Kerry had sunk. But after a couple of days, everyone realized how homophobic all the "outrage" really was, and the story turned Kerry's way as it faded from memory.

I'm glad the tape is out there so we have four days to shift the dialogue before election day. No need for panic, just stay the course and keep spinning our point of view.

[Dogmudgeon]

1. This is good for Bush?

I fail to see how.

It underscores how Bush has failed to capture ObL.

Second, ObL makes some damaging remarks on the tape -- damaging to Bush.

As for "spinning our point of view," we don't need to spin. The truth will be sufficient.

--bkl

[fishwax]

5. Of course it won't be good for bush

but that's what the media is saying right now. And I've seen/heard a number of people worrying about it.

But just b/c it's fallacious to say this helps bush, that doesn't mean that the media isn't saying it, and that the media spin won't have an effect.

My point is that the media point of view will change, and the timing of that change will benefit us. And the reason the media p.o.v. will change is because we will consistently offer our spin. Yeah, the truth. Our spin is the truth. That's the way it usually is.

[SammyWinstonJack]

10. I too fail to see how this is good for the chimp

:shrug: I just don't get that!

[fishwax]

15. I don't see it as good for bush either.

The media seems to, though.

The media is wrong.

We need to keep telling the media the obvious truth of the matter: OBL alive = bush failure

In the natural cycle that stories have, our talking points will dominate by the end of the weekend.

Then we'll have the election.
Then Kerry will win.
(In a landslide ;))

[MichiganVote]

2. Bush failed. Not Kerry.

[fishwax]

8. I know it, and you know it.

And I think we should encourage the media to point it out as well.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

3. How about this?

A Middle East analyst on "Countdown" right now is saying that it sounds to her like the OBL tape was made to be played on the anniversary of 9/11, and she's kind of suspicious about why it was released today.

Heh.

It's meaningless, that's what it is. OBL is saying, "Leave us alone and we'll leave you alone." I'd be willing to trust everything a mass murderer/religious whackjob promises, wouldn't you?

People are far more interested in their jobs going overseas and their health insurance, believe me.

[kentuck]

4. Please explain why you htink htis is good for Bush....

I fail to see your rationale... :shrug:

[fishwax]

7. uh, I don't think it will be good for bush

But I do think that the initial media spin is that it is good for bush. That's what I've been seeing pretty consistently, with a few exceptions (Zahn, for instance, pointed out that the bottom line is OBL's reappearance is a failure for bush).

So I don't think it will be good for bush. I think the media, for a day or two, will continue to mistakenly present the pov that this is good for bush. But I think the truth will out, and this story will cycle back into our favor, just in time for the election.

[babylonsister]

9. Fishwax is only stating what the media

is spinning. I'm watching it and hearing it as well (well, not on Keith, but Hardball was out of control). Since some of us are watching, you can bet repugs are as well. So it boils down to what people believe and how gullible they are vs. whether they already have made a decision, like we have.

[fishwax]

16. thanks babylonsister

that's what I meant.

I had to turn off hardball it was so annoying. I switched to CNN, which was marginally better. Countdown has made some sense though (as usual :))

[montana500]

6. end of a campaign becomes referendum on incumbent

OBL showing up hurts Bush.

[oasis]

11. It'll sink in eventually. "Wanted Dead or Alive" needs to get some play.

[AmerDem]

12. What the fuck is there to "ride out"?

The only thing I see here are a few chickenshit chicken littles speaking out their ass without thinking.

Bin Laden was able to appear on tape because shrub let him get away. nothing else has to be said. Now start letting others know.

[fishwax]

14. well, the initial media reaction is what we have to ride out

but if you'd rather just call other people chickenshits, I suppose that works too.

Right now the media is saying the tape is good for bush.

That's bullshit, and my point is that the obvious truth of your second paragraph will be the media meme by the end of the weekend. All we have to do is keep on that talking point.

[AmerDem]

17. sorta like....

After every debate Tweety and his crew stated with such great pride that shrub had won? Ignore all of this bullshit and don't assume most here have to ride out anything. What we have are a few "chickenshits" like we always have "chickenshits" during any past issue with a hint of anti Kerry interpretation.

[fishwax]

18. yeah, sorta like that

and after every debate, they pretty much changed their tune after a day or two. I think part of the reason they changed their tune is because of efforts like those of DU to hold their feet to the fire and consistently pointing out the logical truth. Doing the same thing here will have the same effect.

I didn't "assume" anything. I was just making an observation that, despite what the mediawhores may be saying right now, I like the life-cycle I see developing for this story, and I think it will break our way.

I think the story will be good for Kerry. Some people don't. I could just call them chickenshits too, but frankly, I don't really see what one would expect to accomplish with that.

[DemBones DemBones]

13. I agree with you. I heard Peter Jennings claim that Kerry had

"a note of frustration" in his voice after the tape came out. They then played the Kerry clip and I heard no note of frustration. They were also spinning how it brings peoples' attention back to Sept. 11.

B-o-r-i-n-g :boring:

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. If this has any benefit for Bush, it will only be to energize his base

I don't think any Kerry voters will be swayed, more likely some weak Bush votes may change to Kerry. The only downside to this could be to increase overall Repub turnout, but as long as Dems GOTV, it won't matter.
I haven't felt this optimistic in nearly four years.

[venus]

20. We've got to trust the man -Kerry.Kerry Kerry...

When we chant that name we have to believe. Remember he said the one thing that got to him on the campaign trail was some woman saying "we've got your back". Come on DUers.