Devil's advocate here...

[BillZBubb]

Most DUers feel pretty good about our chances in the election. The conventional wisdom is that the undecideds will break heavily for the challenger. Given the state of the polls, that indicates a very narrow win for John Kerry.

What if the undecideds are mainly moved by all the Repug fear and scare tactics? They are getting hammered 24/7 about fear, fear, fear. We really don't have a historic analog to this situation. That fear may drive them to stick with the devil they know.

Given the weeks of really bad news and Bush*s unrelenting incompetence, one would think that Kerry would be way ahead--even in polls that don't get the cell-phone voters. I don't buy that all the polls are skewed or garbage. They are telling us something very profound. Bush* shouldn't be close, yet he is. I'd like to know why.

I am hopeful, but worried about the outcome. It still seems to me that fear is holding it's own against common sense and hope. Your thoughts?

[Slit Skirt]

1. sure....fear is a huge motivator

....and if bush wins i am leaving the country

[indigobusiness]

13. I've staked out HeyHey's garage...

so that's taken.

[JuniorPlankton]

2. Same principle works this time too

People who COULD be moved by the fear crap, had been moved.

The ones who still undecided will break for Kerry.

How is it different from previous elections?
(Don't tell me 9/11 changed everything :))

[BillZBubb]

6. But, that's my point, fear has held them undecided.

It may be enough to hold them with the devil they know. I see no clear argument that says they will break for Kerry.

This election is different from previous elections on a number of levels. 9/11 did change some things. There is no denying that. It's the only reason Bush* is even in this race. A lot of otherwise smart people support the miserable failure Chimperor because of his "great leadership".

It is different also because we have a "war" against an enemy who struck us inside the US. No one wants a repeat of that or anything like it. Bush* has spent a half a billion dollars trying to convince people Kerry would let it happen again. That is unprecedented. And it apparently has been successful to an extent.

[ThePhilosopher04]

3. Not gonna happen...

A big reason so many are undecided is directly because of the fear and scare tactics and they're tired of it. They're also pissed off about Iraq, the economy, and don't want to re-select Bush.

[BillZBubb]

5. Huh?

By what you are saying, those people should be firm Kerry, not undecided. I must be missing your point because your answer makes no sense to me.

[mikehiggins]

4. True to a point but I think you go astray at the outset with the

state of the polls.

I think the polls are screwed, and I think JK may well win by five or six points across the board, even more in some swing states. A sizeable number of popular votes have already been cast, which means all the effort to get out the message was wasted on them.

ALso, I suspect there's a lot of truth to the argument that the small number of people who actually answer their phones and take part in the polling surveys might not be telling the truth.

After this election I think Gallup,et al, will be cast into the dust heap of history, and deservedly so.

[Technowitch]

7. Fearful people don't stand in line to vote

They stay home, glued to their televisions, fearing the next attack.

We, who are unafraid, vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The Only Thing To Fear Is Four More Years Of Bush..

nt

[expatriate]

8. I personally wonder about the term "undecided".

There are certain age groups who feel very strongly about the secret ballot, and that includes giving out information to pollsters. In particular, I'm thinking about people of my parents' generation, who are now in their mid-sixties to mid-seventies.

I can remember pollsters calling my parents' home and my parents always saying they were "undecided" - not because they were, but because they weren't going to tell their political business to anyone. I know it seems sort of strange now that so many people talk about politics very openly, but at one time, the secret ballot was revered, and politics wasn't considered polite information. Many other people I know of the same age group also dodge political discussions by using the excuse that they are "undecided".

Could be this is affecting the numbers of "undecided"? There are people who are simply not willing to tell a perfect stranger, particularly one calling on the phone, how they are going to vote, and rather than being rude, they may be pulling out the undecided answer.

[BillZBubb]

11. Ok, that's reasonable.

But, does that make these close-to-the-vest voters more likely to go for Kerry? Or should we just assign them at the same percentages as those who do answer?

I agree with each point made in this thread about the unreliability of polls and polling. The methodology is tremendously flawed, especially in close elections.

Still, I think we know nothing about how the undecideds will break. I hope the conventional wisdom holds true--then Kerry wins.

[expatriate]

14. I understand and in reality, it really won't be over

until the votes are counted, and considering past history, maybe not even then. That's the cold, logical truth.

If historical events are anything to go by, undecided voters will tend to break for a challenger in a close race. Historically, people also tend to vote with their wallets and their personal situations rather than about their feelings about a situation which may affect them emotionally but is more abstract in its impact on their personal lives. It's more likely that someone will vote for Kerry because he's unemployed, a reality that affects him directly, than he will vote for Kerry because he's opposed to the war in Iraq if he doesn't happen to have personal involvement in the war. In the elections where incumbents have been voted out of office, there have almost always been circumstances where a goodly portion of the electorate is doing badly on a personal level, and they feel that a change might help them personally. If people do okay during an incumbent's term, they tend to vote to keep him in office, with a "don't mess with a good thing" attitude.

My hope is that there are enough people out there who have been doing badly under the Bush administration to vote him out, and that their votes outnumber those people who think their tax cuts and refunds were manna from heaven.

Nothing is certain, but I'm going to hold onto hope. I truly don't want to consider four more years of Bush, not even living at such a distance.

[sonicx]

10. don't worry about polls

MOE of 3.

[BillZBubb]

12. But, 3% cuts both ways.

What makes you certain the margins will go our way? Anecdotally it feels like it. Logically, it should happen. But, anecdotally and logically, the Chimperor should never have been pResident either.

[missouri dem]

15. It is all about turnout.

Polls weighted toward standard turnout. Massive new registration is below the radar. We will GOTV and the turnout will be a record. Take it to the bank. It will be apparent by noon on Nov. 2nd.