Amazingly Tough Electoral Map

[TruthWins]

Playing with PBS' electoral college map and this is really a tough election. Kerry can win Ohio and Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin and Minnesota and still lose if he loses Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire. This is assuming Bush gets Florida (I know Kerry can win Florida, but I'm not going to count on it with the BS that goes on down there and the fact of his brother doing everything he can to see it go wrong) and the rest of the states fall in line with their traditions.

Yikes, I hope those polls in Iowa and New Mexico are off because I've seen a lot showing Bush ahead, not many showing Kerry ahead. And Wisconsin and Minnesota aren't even in the bag. It looks like tiny New Hampshire could be the key to the whole country. I do believe it will go to Kerry but this could really be a squeaker. I hope I don't have a heart attack Tuesday night. (Of course I may have one if Bush squeezes in there again.)

[bluestateguy]

1. This is another hand-wringing doom and gloom post

Take it elsewhere. Only positive Kerry spoken here.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Agree And Disagree....

I think Cassandra and Polyanna posts are unhelpful...

[TruthWins]

5. I knew someone would say that n/t

[theangrydem]

25. I agree

There is nothing wrong with a little intellectual honesty. Kerry will have to win all of the toss-ups, the EV math is tough.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

27. There is nothing wrong with going

JELLYLEGS!!!!

[Name removed]

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[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Look at this map and just switch NH and Arkansas

Which I am pretty sure Kerry is going to win.

[vet_against_Bush]

9. How do you copy and paste that from LAtimes? nt

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. hold CTRL and 'Print Screen" keys

paste into photoshop, crop etc...
upload to website.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[Name removed]

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[Green Mountain Dem]

14. At this point in time....

yep .....either cheer or take a fuckin hike. Mods tombstone me if you like at this pisses me off.

[Randi_Listener]

28. Exactly.

You have to have some fucking confidence.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Can Do Without The Cassandra And Pollyanna Posts..

nt

[RedEarth]

13. You might not agree, but to say FU seems out of line

[dr.strangelove]

23. FU ALL - Let him post his concerns

this is not just toward roninvt, its to all you DUers who are getting down on those of us who need DU for moral support. Some of us know this will be tough.

DU is not just for cheerleading. I know I needed some cheering up last week and some assholes tried to make me feel like shit for voicing my nerves.

I have a belly full of butterflies. I am nervous as shit. I play with the electoral map every day to figure out how we can win if shrub takes Florida through vote fraud.

HERE IS THE DEAL. If he gets away with stealing Florida, it will be tough to win. I think we will do it, but I am scared to death that his scumbag lawyers will get the better of us. They certainly play dirtier. We need to keep fighting in Florida and not let the vote challenge bullshit in Mich. Ohio and PA play out.

Stop getting down on those of us who feel nervous. DU should be for cheerleading and cheering up. Support your liberal brothers instead of calling them assholes or saying FU.

FUCK YOU ALL for coming down on someone who needs some support during the toughest week the Dems have ever faced.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I Have Done Post Grad Work In Political Science..

I have looked at the polls....


I have looked closely at many elections...


This election appears to be very close....


I have no idea how it will break...

[dr.strangelove]

35. I believe Kerry will win

I don;t think it will be as close as the polling suggests, but still close. I think Kerry breaks 300 evs. Thats still pretty close.

My whole point is to lay off those of us who use DU to talk to fellow liberals and get teh boost of confidence we need to carry our friends to the polls next week and elect Kerry.

I know I am still working on two friends. I don;t need anyone coming down on me for being nervous. That might jst take a little wind out of sails and let two more votes slip away. I'd rather get strength from DU, not lose it to DUers who attack me.

[doni_georgia]

36. I also have a degree in Poli Sci and have done post grad work

thing I am looking at is that 48% threshold that Bush seems to be hitting in an awful lot of the battleground state polls. If Bush hasn't broken the 48% margin yet, he's not likely to. New registered voters tend to break for the challenger as do undecideds. I have played with the polls and maps all week, and I think we will be looking at between 276-289 for Kerry.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. 289-276 Is An Extremely Close Race....

I think the polls are "roughly" accurate.. If the final polls show Kerry three or less points behind I think we have a decent shot...


btw- where did you do your post grad work... I got my Masters and eighteen hours beyond that but no further... At FSU.....

[featherman]

6. that is correct ( I think)

The Gore states + NH = 264 (this year)
add only OH for 284
then subtract IA and NM and NH(-16) leaves only 268

(hmmm...I better check the math on this...something is not right)

[Tansy_Gold]

21. The problem with your math

is that you added NH the first time, then subtracted it the second, for no net gain/loss.

[vet_against_Bush]

7. He isn't loosing NH, no way! nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. New Hampshire's Not In Play

IA, NM, and WI are....

That sucks....

[Dob Bole]

15. Badnarik will gift-wrap New Hampshire for us...

New Hampshire is a very libertarian state. Even though Badnarik isn't included in polls, a lot of conservatives are unhappy with the growth of government spending under Bush, the war, and the Patriot Act.

[West Coast Democrat]

18. Well, if *Bush loses Florida or Ohio, it's all over for him....

I can't see him pulling off wins in any of the other major mid-western states he'd need to carry in order to make up for losing FL or OH.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Tend To Agree...

nt

[Green Mountain Dem]

19. OK ...I get the message....

My last post...and my last monthly contrib to DU...I will go back to Bartcop and give him my money...at least He does not capitulate.

[dr.strangelove]

24. Don't go away

Stay here. While I understand being nervous and worried, don't go away from DU becaus esome of us are nervous.
We will win.
KERRY WILL PREVAIL.

[Green Mountain Dem]

26. I AM NOT NERVOUS OR WORRIED.....

But I am sick of seeing posters projecting doom and gloom...Fuck the polls and fuck the media...I KNOW Kerry will prevail and I don't need any weenies telling me otherwise!!!

[Randi_Listener]

29. Perfect.

All the doom and gloom Nervous Nellies are foaming at the fucking mouth now.

[Name removed]

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[Randi_Listener]

37. You've got it fucking wrong, Jack.

[Name removed]

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[dr.strangelove]

31. Yeah, thats a great liberal attitude you have there

What the hell is wrong with you?
Because many DUers are nervous about losing and want to use a LIBERAL FORUM to voice our concerns, you jump all over them with sarcasm.

I thought DU welcomed Democrats of all stripes, along with other progressives who will work with us to achieve our shared goals.

Electing John Kerry is the shared goal at issue here. For those of us without your confidence, which I'm glad you have, but I have ZERO doubts that this election will be close. I think Kerry will win, but if I need to get support from my DU brothers, who are you to tell me not to. If you don;t like what we are saying, don;t read the thread. I'll continue to support those who need it, and cheer those that have your confidence.

[Green Mountain Dem]

38. Then your ZERO doubts are an indication....

that you believe the media spin rather than what you read here on DU...MAKE A CHOICE !!! There is nothing wrong with me and this election is more important to me than your doubts...the 7th Vermonter to die in this insane war was my godson and I am more concerned about the future of my 6yr grandaughter than your fuckin doubts!!

[dr.strangelove]

42. Really - well I've lost a brother

If you are trying to suggest that your loss, which by the way is terrible and I am very sorry for your family, somehow entiltes you treat me like crap, you are way off. I've lost a brother and there are likely thousands of DUers who know, or are related, to one of the 1000+ americans who have died in Iraq.

If you are suggesting that your godson was somehow worth more than my brother, fuck off and leave the party, because not a democrat alive will tell you your loss was somehow more difficult than mine, or the other 1000+.

As for the media spin, what the fuck are you talking about?

You are just flat out wrong to tell a fellow DUer not to use DU to support him/her.

[Randi_Listener]

43. And...

...your point?

[dr.strangelove]

44. Why are you doing this?

Why attack someone who came hear looking for support. This is insane. You obviously believe Kerry will win, and I gather you believe it will be by a significant amount.

I don't agree. I think this will be a close elecetion and we need everyone to do whatever it takes to win. I don't see how jumping on someone who says she/he is nervous about winning will help.

If you are going to jump on someone who needs a little support from a fellow liberal, I'd rather you sat on teh side and let me or someone else help him/her. Maybe TruthWins doesn't have a lot of pro-Kery support. Maybe she/he does. I just know that I'm going to help get any DUer who wants to talk.

[Selwynn]

34. Spoken like a true fundamentalist

Don't confuse me with the facts!!! I know because I *BELIEVE*

:eyes:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Who Else Do We Know Like That?

Have you ever read about the mirror image theory?

[dr.strangelove]

46. No - but I will now