NJ mock election of school kids Kerry 56 Bush 39

[Jersey Devil]

I can't give a link since it is not online yet, but a mock election was conducted by The Record, Bergen County's largest newspaper. It covers all of Bergen County and small parts of Hudson, Morris and Passaic Counties. Of course, this is only a small part of NJ but it is a large enough slice to be meaningful in my opinion, having been around elections for about 15 years. I man the tote boards at Dem Hdq every year and follow elections very closely as a past candidate, office holder and campaign chairman.

Bergen County (my county) 56% Kerry - 43% Bush - Mind you, Bergen County as a whole is Republican and much of it is represented by Scott Garret(wingnut) in Congress, including my town. I have never seen a Republican win NJ in a statewide election without winning Bergen County. It is not as heavily Republican as many other Counties, but it is the most populated repub county in NJ. The past few years it has been trending Dem in countywide elections but from mid 60s until 2002 the county government has been in Repub control.

In Morris County, a Repub bastion, only two towns were polled, Kinnelon & Butler, so I don't know how accurate that one is, but I can tell you they are very Repub towns and there it was Kerry 41% and Bush 54%, a number I would expect from that county.

A somewhat larger part of Passaic County was also included (but not Paterson, the most Dem city) and it was Kerry 65% Bush 32%.

In Hudson County, the most Democratic after Essex County (Newark area and not included in this mock election) it included Guttenberg, Jersey City, Weehawken and West New York. The results there were Kerry 71% Bush 27%. Note that West New York has a huge Cuban population (second only to Miami as I understand it, so I would expect the results from the rest of Hudson Co to be even more pro-Kerry). This county and Essex County is what we count on for victory.

I have seen these mock elections published many times before and do not recall a single instance where the results on election day varied by very much from the mock elections.