Kerry will win the popular vote 51% to 47% , Bush has peaked

[Mountainman]

Bush has peaked at 47 - 48%. He will not pick up any more support and may lose ground. Only Kerry has the momentum and could pick up more undecideds.

The repubs only hope is an electoral college win. The only tactics left to them are to hold onto as much of their base as possible and suppress the Dem vote.

If we lose this it will because our lawyers were bested, enough of our voters were disenfranchised, enough of our votes weren't counted, and not enough of us bothered to vote. I doubt this will be the case.

Last night on Countdown, Fineman seemed very subdued as he talked about all the things going wrong for * this week. I took that as a positive for us.

[michigandem2]

1. on monday the 1st...if his number is 48%

which it hasn't budged in a week or so...then he won't get anymore than that...a pollster said ...an incumbent RARELY bumps up more than what his last poll number was...

GOTV

[Fluffdaddy]

2. Lets hope

[Wat_Tyler]

3. That's exactly my prediction. 51-47.

Of course, predictions are for fools, right? :D

[wishlist]

4. Howard Fineman said maybe disgruntled Repubs pushed explos. story

Last night Fineman went so far as to mention possibility that govt insiders or disgruntled Repubs were behind the timing of the missing explosive story, and Tucker Carlson said that the story of the explosives was a big development that could affect voters because of the serious concerns it raises about Bush's mishandling of Iraq.

This will be about the 5th week in a row with developments that on the whole favor Kerry which the polls seem to reflect, so I just hope that the media doesn't slow Kerry's momentum with distractions as they did with the Mary Cheney and Teresa remarks. Kerry just needs to keep the upward momentum going another 6 days to clearly overtake Bush.

[TomClash]

5. I think there will be over 120 million voters

about 15 million more than 2000. Kerry will win by 4-5 million votes, closely matching your prediction. If the turnout is 105-110 million voters Bush will win a very close race.

All this assumes only the usual election fraud. If there is massive fraud or a lower than expected turnout, then Bush will win.