opinions on iowa / wisconsin / minn

[Joe Momma]

what are our chances of taking 1/2/all of these states. my wife, from iowa, assures me that it is not in question there, but i am worried. i think minn is going kerry, but am starting to doubt wisconsin.

[LincolnMcGrath]

1. We need every hand on deck in Iowa

[UnityDem]

2. my uneducated gut guess

Minnesota - 80% confident
Iowa - 70% confident
Wisconsin - 50/50

[Joe Momma]

3. believe it or not..

we may offset a loss in iowa here in arkansas.

[NinetySix]

5. We won't lose Minnesota.

Honestly, if it even went for Carter ('80), Mondale, Dukakis, and Gore, there's no way it's going to swing toward a second Dubya term.

Iowa's a bit iffier, and I'd only give it about a 60% chance of going blue.

Wisconsin is the wild card here, but I'd say it's chances of going blue are about 52/48.

The likelihood of taking two of three, I'd say, is good enough to count on, and the likelihood of taking all three is enough to make me strongly optimistic, if only guardedly confident.

[Brucey]

6. The bad news

These states are full of morons. They are becoming Montana. It's hunters, prolife, low taxes, and survivalists. It's very possible that they all could go red. For example, everyone thinks MN is a liberal state. It's not. Look at the record. MN has had as many conservatives elected statewide as liberals. Minneapolis is liberal, yes, but not the state. Mostly Republican governors and senators. Humphrey, Mondale, McCarthy, Wellstone, Wendy Anderson and Dayton were balanced by Durenburger, Boschwitz, Quie, Carlson, Lavander, Pawlenty, and Ventura. Except for the Iron Range and a few other spots, outstate MN is conservative. St. Paul is getting more and more conservative, and even before it was moderate Dems. The suburbs are growing like crazy and full of crazy people. Minnesota is going to be close again this year. Pawlenty's easy victory is not a good sign. And the bad news is that Iowa and Wisconsin will be more difficult than MN. I hope to hell I am wrong. But I am pessimistic about these three states. They were very, very close in 2000, and have gotten more conservative.

[AVID]

9. Whoa, now Brucey

Not all of MT is like that.

[Viking12]

13. Pawlenty's victory was not by majority

He won on a pluarlity vote split between two Democrats. Granted, Penny was an conservative Democratic candidate runing on the IP ticket, but the majority of MN voters do not support the RW agenda. In that same election, the only candidate to win statewide office with a true majority was Democratic AG Mike Hatch. Ventura was an abberation, also winning by plurality. Carlson was a moderate who left the Repug party and is now supporting Kerry.

[fujiyama]

4. Another Gore state of concern

Not in the same region, but important anyways - New Mexico.

Richardson better deliver it!

[bobbieinok]

7. my ex and his SO did their part...they're in Europe, supposed to return

soon......my 1st comment was VOTE ABSENTEE BEFORE YOU LEAVE; THERE MIGHT BE A DIFFICULTY RETURNING

I said, check with the county dem party office and see what they say

he's very anti-W but thinks W may win....also pretty a-political in general......when I called later about something else, the 1st thing he said was 'we voted absentee and turned the ballots in'

[Joe Momma]

8. early voter turnout in ar...

is unbelievable. i am guardedly optimistic, and that is saying a lot in this state. we need the big dog here to seal the deal.

[dansolo]

10. I've got friends in WI and MN voting for Kerry

One is a Republican, and one is an Independant. My Republican friend in WI is much more of a moderate, and is mainly a Republican because he wanted to get involved in politics, and realized that the only way he could get involved where he lived was as a Republican. But he recognizes what a complete fuckup Bush has been, and told me he was voting for Kerry. I was a little worried about my friend in MN. When I talked to him last, he said that he didn't want to vote for either Bush or Kerry, and that he would probably vote for Nader. But, between then and now, he saw Fahrenheit 911, and now he is voting for Kerry.

[Cats Against Frist]

11. John Kerry Will Win Iowa

Anecdotal evidence on my part, yes -- BUT

1)I've heard that the Dems have registered bukku absentee ballots and that early Dem voting is hot.

2. On a country tour, the other day, I saw way more Kerry signs than Bush signs -- this was a DRIVE IN RURAL IOWA, not just my liberal city.

3. My best friend's two Christian Reformed, conservative GOP parents, who live in Northern IA are voting for Kerry.

4. The Democrats have a massive ground operation in IA, with which yours truly will be helping.

5. I have an entire classroom full of students who are GEARED UP, and are volunteering, decked out in Kerry gear -- lots of them voted early. Even the more beefy boys in the class are voting for Kerry -- I wouldn't have guessed.

6. Our county helped swing IA blue last election, and EVERYONE is pumped up -- Kerry signs outnumber Bush signs 3:1, and Kerry bumperstickers probably 5:1. Plus I would say, on an average residential street, about 5 of every 10 houses has a sign up in the yard -- most all of them for Kerry/Edwards.

7. Even if IA is leaning Bush a little, now, GOTV and the mo will push it back -- this state was polling 5-7 points up for Kerry, back a couple months ago. The hearts and minds are there -- we just have to get Kerry to stick.

[milkyway]

12. These will decide a close election. Assuming Kerry gets Ohio and NM

and bush gets Florida and Colorado, Kerry will need two of these three. Minnesota should be solid, so he'll need either Iowa or Wisconsin. Both are tossups right now by the flawed media polls.

But I don't think the election will be close. Kerry will get Florida and these three. Kerry in a landslide.