OHIO

[AVID]

Predictions?

Educated, guestimated, or wishful thinking.

I beg, plead, visualize OHIO going blue.

[Doosh]

1. Kerry 49.5 Bush 48.7

[nonconformist]

2. Blue and contested. nt

[lilsourgoose]

6. Ohio bumpersticker survey

I just spent the weekend in Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky. For the Hell of it, I kept track of bumper stickers and yard signs. My totals: Kerry 71, Bush 50.

Not scientific of course, but encouraging. Particularly since if I were a Kerry voter in that (conservative) part of the country, I'd be reluctant to put a sticker up for fear of vandalism.

Also saw a few "Republicans For Kerry" stickers, mostly in Kentucky.

[Chichiri]

3. Kerry by at least 4. (n/t)

[Thrill]

4. Here goes

Kerry 51%
Bush 48%
Other 1%

[gavodotcom]

5. Blue by 6%: 53-47.

[winga222]

7. Going Blue

A lot of us are working hard on this and I'm confident Ohio will be true blue. I'll guess 50%K, 48% *, 2% other.

[AVID]

8. THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU

I'll buy you a cold one on the 3rd

[Philostopher]

9. What will the actual votes be?

I'd say Kerry's got a good chance of taking 3% more than Shrub.

But not if they intimidate sufficient new voters, move polling places without adequate warning (don't know if they're planning to -- they're doing it in Pennsylvania, though), refuse to allow people who have little or no transportation to cast provisional ballots a precinct over because they forgot to change their addresses with the BoE, and set up blockades, have cops stand outside minority district polling precincts ... you get the idea.

All I know is, if Kerry pulls enough to overcome the fraud and disenfranchisement, he could take Ohio. And two months ago, I wouldn't have been comfortable saying that. I was in one of the most conservative counties in Ohio over the weekend, though, and though there were more Shrub signs -- there were enough Kerry signs to make me feel a whole hell of a lot better about Kerry's chances. I just don't know how much he's going to have to beat Shrub by here to overcome all the crap the Ohio GOP is trying to pull to beat down Dems who want to vote for him.

[Robert Oak]

10. #1 for outsourced jobs, people in ruin, poverty, blue, absolutely

[Lefty48197]

11. I visualize it too.

Ohio just might be the difference this year.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. I predict Ohio will mirror the national vote

Within 1% either way.

The polls showing Kerry behind nationally but significantly ahead in Ohio make very little sense.