If Kerry is getting 60% of early voting (estimate) how can he lose?

[Quixote1818]

Someone crunched the early Iowa and Florida numbers based on party affiliation and came to the conclusion Kerry was getting approximately 60% of the early vote. I am trying not to get my hopes up but I have to tell you that with numbers like these I am really beginning to think this is in the bag. The only negative thing I could think of is that the Democratic Base Hates Bush so badly they all came out early and then Bush will do better on Nov. 2nd. Is this possible? I noticed on a poll here on DU about 80% of DU folks had already voted. That worries me a little bit, that we are all so enthusiastic but the moderate Dem's may not be and this is puffing up our numbers in the early voting because we wont be going on Nov. 2 if we have already voted.

[The Chronicler]

1. With high turnout for Bush generated in the final 72-48 hrs.

Don't get ahead of yourself. We still need to push like hell.

[The Backlash Cometh]

14. Yep.

I can't tell you how many local counts I've seen on the television which have flipped in the last hours of the night. Kerry needs to keep the momentum going all the way through the night on November 2.

[DaveinMD]

2. there are plenty

of voters who will voting on November 2. The more votes you can bank the better.

[gcomeau]

3. Every voter here who voted early...

...will have that much more time to make sure their list of 10 or 20 or 30 Kerry supporting friends and acquaintances get THEIR butts to the polls on election day. Call them, e-mail them, swing by their homes and pick them and up and drive them...

You guys DO all have lists right? If not... MAKE SOME!

-Grant

[AIJ Alom]

4. the only reason DU folks vote early is so they can get out the slackers !!

And get them to the polls !

All freepers and Bush supporters remember Tucker Carlson's advice. Don't vote with a candidate if you don't totally agree with him. I know you freaks don't agree with Bush's "compassion" when it appears every 4 years like the olympics. Do not vote for Bush from a champion of your own party.

[Thrill]

5. how can he lose?

electronic voting machines

[natrat]

6. election fraud

duuu

[Tamyrlin79]

7. This is a GOOD thing. Period.

Even if this is the committed Dems voting early, we know that the lines will be long on election day. We know it will suck to stand in line. We don't have time for this because we have other, more important things to do. Like making phone calls, and driving get out the vote efforts, and watching the polls, and challenging voter disenfranchisement, etc.

[elperromagico]

8. I haven't voted.

The people I've persuaded to vote haven't voted yet. My pro-Kerry friends haven't voted yet.

And if you think we're not going to vote on 2 November... think again. :D

[petepillow]

11. I haven't voted yet either, and I didn't participate in the poll.

Just can't trust them polls... ;)

[belle]

19. I haven't voted yet either. I'm a NY'er though, so figure it's about as

safe as it's going to get.

[ROH]

9. IWhich is the least likely state for Kerry?

Maybe Utah or Idaho?

[npincus]

10. who crunched? Is there a link?

[NAO]

12. How do you get data from early voting? Is it public info? Anecdotal? or?

Where does this information about the results of early voting come from? Don't they lock up the ballots until close of business on Nov. 2?

Is any of the information made public or even semi-public?

[Bonchak]

13. wondering the same thing

I've been to the secretary of state pages in the states with early voting and can't find any data

[against all enemies]

15. yankees 3, red sox 0 - best of seven - get it?

[sonicx]

16. who crunched these numbers?

just curious

[LoZoccolo]

17. Yes, remind everyone that even if early totals are 99-1...

...that they still have to vote on 11/2 if they haven't! Take nothing for granted!

[dolstein]

18. Somewhere a math teacher is rolling over in his/her grave

You can't make any inference about the outcome of a general election based on early voting unless you know whether the universe of early voters is representative of the total universe of voters.

You could have a situation where the universe of early voters is disproportionately Democratic, but the universe of election day voters is disproportionately Republican. If that's the case, any prediction based on early voting figures could very well be way off base.