10/25 Zogby battleground track

[unfrigginreal]

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Kerry led 48-47 percent; Florida, Bush 48-47 percent; Iowa, Bush 47-44 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52-43 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 48-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 50-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 48-45 percent; and Wisconsin, Bush 48-46 percent.

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=electionsNews&storyID=6604265

[Ediacara]

1. Thet New Mexico data is screwy

Beleive me, I like Zogby, but just last week, he had Kerry ahead by 12%! Something's wrong with his numbers there...

[kwolf68]

2. So its Bush in a landslide?

[unfrigginreal]

6. Notice Kerry closed a huge gap in Ohio and closed in Florida

Ohio, Pa and Florida are looking grim for Bush

[alcuno]

7. Actually, it looks good for Kerry.

* is under 50% in the majority of those polls and that's where you want him to be.

[requiem99]

3. That New Mexico is a massive outlier, the rest are within MOE.

Ignore the polls. Its all about turnout now.

[zach]

4. Jeez

talk about volatile polling, my lord.

[MidwestTransplant]

5. Bush isn't going to win any state unless he is at >49% on election day

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Zogby 's Losiing His Fastball (nt)

[DaveinMD]

9. I'll say it again

Zogby has a very shaky record on state level polling.

[cindyw]

10. All of this polling data must be affected by Zogby's outlier day on Sat

Give Zogby a couple of days to drop Sat. I'll believe this stuff if it sticks all week.

[lancdem]

11. These numbers fluctuate too much

Kerry went from 5 down in Ohio to 1 down in one day? Don't buy it. He wasn't down 5 in Ohio in the first place. And no way Bush is up 8 in New Mexico.

[pabloseb]

12. Polls are good

They show a movement towards Kerry where it matters the most: OH and FL.

[mvd]

13. Looking better

One day made quite a bit of difference. Still want to see those Iowa and Wisconsin numbers change!

I don't believe the New Mexico figure. Zogby himself says he's doing a poll with only Hispanics to see if his other figures for Hispanics have been off.