What were the Washington Post numbers

[helpisontheway]

yesterday? 49/48???? Trying to see if those are the new numbers that are on the site right now or if they are from yesterday.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. What is a tracking poll vs. a normal poll?

Signed,

Stupid

[DaveinMD]

2. a tracking poll

is a rolling poll that includes the last three days of the polling. The 4th day drops off and and the last three are averaged.

A normal poll includes all the results of the sample. There is no dropoff.

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. yes, it was Bush 49, Kerry 48 yesterday

Now it's Kerry 49, Bush 48.

The swing has finally happened. I doubt Kerry will be trailing from now on.

[papau]

4. WashPo has found the Trend! Using historical Dem% of the vote

It appears the WashPO found a trend! - using historical Dem % of the vote

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 1
10/23/04 49 48 1 * 1 * 2
10/22/04 50 46 1 * 1 * 2
10/21/04 50 46 1 * * * 2
10/20/04 51 45 1 * 1 * 2

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 46 48 2 * 1 * 2
10/23/04 49 46 1 * 1 * 3
10/22/04 50 45 2 * 1 * 3
10/21/04 50 44 1 * 1 * 3
10/20/04 51 44 1 * 1 1 3

Right Wrong No
direction track opin.
10/24/04 LV 41 55 4
10/23/04 LV 43 54 4
10/22/04 LV 44 52 4


The tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day. The Post adjusts, or "weights," each day's randomly selected samples of adults to match the voting-age population percentages by age, sex, race, and education, as reported by the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The Post also adjusts the percentages of self-identified Democrats and Republicans by partially weighting to bring the percentages of those groups to within three percentage points of their proportion of the electorate, as measured by national exit polls of voters in the last three presidential elections.


10/25: 1,631 likely voters; 2,079 self-identified registered voters Oct. 21-24.

10/24: 1,638 likely voters; 2,085 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-23.

10/23: 1,222 likely voters; 1,575 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-22.

10/22: 1,238 likely voters; 1,592 self-identified registered voters Oct. 19-21.

10/21: 1,260 likely voters; 1,590 self-identified registered voters Oct. 18-20.

10/20: 1,248 likely voters; 1,586 self-identified registered voters Oct. 17-19.

10/19: 1,237 likely voters; 1,593 self-identified registered voters Oct. 16-18.

10/18: 1,656 likely voters; 2,130 self-identified registered voters Oct. 14-17.

10/17: 1,648 likely voters; 2,115 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-16.

10/16: 1,203 likely voters; 1,574 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-15.