Kerry Leads in Rasmussen Poll

[PSU84]

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 46.4%
Kerry 48.4%
Other 1.7%
Not Sure 3.5%
RasmussenReports.com


Monday October 25, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

This is the first time Senator Kerry has held the lead since August 23. The 48.4% for Kerry is the Senator's highest total since August 17. Data for this update is collected on a three-day rolling average basis and Senator Kerry held the lead on each of the three days of polling.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[Gman]

1. Interesting contrast to the Zogby tracking poll

I think all that can really be said is that there is an extreme amount of "noise" and volatility in the numbers that's statistically causing the numbers to bounce all over the margin of error. I also think the next really reliable poll will be Zogby's and Rasmussen's report next Monday, 11/1. It was Monday the day before the election in 2000 that Zogby showed Gore winning when everyone else had that idiot winning.

[bullimiami]

3. "noise". not!

these so called polling experts dont have a clue.

the moe should probably be +-10% but that would make the polls appear as worthless as they are.

[Norbert]

2. First time the Ras poll has Kerry on top for quite a while.

Cool.

[mzmolly]

4. :)

:)

[sampsonblk]

5. Solid four-day trend in favor of Kerry!

Is this the final trend of the campaign, or will it swing and sway a few more times in the next 8 days?

I think this may be it. Plus we gotta add a pct or two to Kerry because of the GOTV efforts and the "likely voters" error that fails to take into account that we are pissed off this time around.