Polls 4 years ago today

[Zuni]

in some Bush was leading Gore by 8 points or more.

Gore won popular vote by over 500,000.
Message: F--- the polls. Zogby, Gallup and all the others can go screw themselves.

[Not Me]

1. I am convinced that we are in for a surprise..the pollsters are missing

the bow wave of motivated new voters, and I don't think that they have captured the motivation of the 2000 dems who were screwed. They are still using historic "likely voter" profiles that I think are going to embarass them next week.

Just my $.02

[Zuni]

3. what is a likely voter?

a 35 year old housewife who watches 10 minutes a day of CNN or FOX because her mind is too occupied with her kids?

[michigandem2]

6. I said this last week and i will say it again

the media, like Bush live in a bubble..they don't know the thoughts of real Americans and the feelings about this election...the surprise will be that Kerry wins decisively about 11;30 pm eastern time...

mark it down

[endnote]

2. I think progressive are LESS likely to answer

Because they tend to be more introverted and private people.

[bullimiami]

4. i dont remember...before the big repug takeover in the 1994 mid term

did the pollsters predict it? or was it a surprise?


i wouldnt mind that sort of surpise on nov 3, the dems taking back the whole government.

[Pab Sungenis]

9. The polls were mixed.

The prediction was that the Democrats would lose ground in the House, but still hold control. The Senate was a toss-up, expected to be 52-48 or 51-49 either way.

1994 shows what happens when you have a very motivated base and an effective GOTV effort. Hopefully, that benefit is on our side this year.

[Homerr]

5. Thank you. I'm too close to all this to not get wound up over it.

Seeing * leading at electoral-vote.com this morning has my stomach turning.

[kostya]

7. Electoral-vote.com is NOISY - only uses one poll per state

Try http://www.race2004.net She averages multiple recent polls.

[grace0418]

8. Not to mention

the fact that they narrow it down to "likely" voters (leaving out new voters) and then call them at home in the daytime or early evening (leaving out people who only have cell phones, people who have caller id and don't answer unknown numbers, people who aren't home during the day, and people who just don't answer the phone during dinner time).

Which leaves people who have voted before and who are willing to answer the phone during the day or early evening. Who are these people? Shut ins? The idle rich?