FLORIDA is ours! BWAHAHAHAHAHA

[jefferson_dem]

OK, i stipulate that it's ours IF (a huge one!) the rules are followed. At least, they won't be able to steal it easily!

See a terrific summation by Chris at http://www.mydd.com/ . Here's something to make you feel happy...

Kerry is very well positioned to win Florida. First, here are the four most recent polls:

Miami-Herald
10/19-10/21, 800 LV's, MoE 3.5
Kerry 46
Bush 46

Research 2000
10/18-10/21, 600 LV's, MoE 4
Kerry 48
Bush 47

Quinnipiac
10/15-10/19, 808 LV's, MoE 3.5
Bush 48
Kerry 47

Survey USA
10/15-10/17, 601 LV's, MoE 4.1
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Clearly, right now things are very close in Florida. In these four polls, Kerry averages 47.75, while Bush averages 47.50. However, Kerry is well positioned in four key areas to win the state, while Bush is only well-positioned in one.

GOTV. As I noted yesterday, Democrats are significantly outperforming Republicans in early voting across the state. Early voting patterns in Florida clearly show a Democratic surge (emphasis mine):

<SNIP>

Paid media. Kerry is well ahead in current television ad buys in Florida. According to Ted Devine in a conference call earlier today, Kerry has 17,000+ points right now in Florida, while Bush only has 12,000 points. That is a significant edge over the air in the final week, which will further help Kerry in a close election.

Endorsements. As Jerome wrote earlier today, Bush has been shut out in major newspaper endorsements:

<SNIP>

And some pics from Boca today -

[aquart]

1. Don't get excited.

Jeb isn't counting those votes.

[RummyTheDummy]

12. Wow. The first post in the thread is the obligatory defeatist

Doom and gloom comment whenever somebody even dares to be so stupid to think optimisticly about Fla. Could be a new record.

[0007]

27. Wow! ROFL! Optimistically & stupid & Florida record -

[johnnyrocket]

19. Feelin' better about OH and FL these days...

I thought things were doom and gloom, I was disturbed by OH saying red, just ridiculous... but looks like it's ours now.

[wellstone_democrat]

2. Uh, we won it in 2000 and we know how that ended

if its close, they can easily steal it. Everything is in place.

I hope they are swamped with Democratic voters!

[Terran]

3. Ah, how you figger that?

It looks like it's neck and neck to me. And they own the voting machines, remember?

[jefferson_dem]

5. Read the note. That should help.

[nankerphelge]

4. Tallahassee too

Democrats were lined up around the block to vote early. Al Gore gave a speech at the courthouse. It was great.

[Cha]

22. Oh man I would have loved to have been

there for that historic moment in time!

[nankerphelge]

23. The crowd was chanting "re-defeat Bush"

and Gore said he liked the sounds of that.

[Cha]

25. Yes, Gore was the President that wasn't

there! No wonder we are so FIRED UP FOR KERRY!

[baltodemvet]

6. Don't count on them chickens yet

We'll probably have to count 'em several times once they've hatched.

[Lefty48197]

7. The best news is that Bush is under 50% in all the polls.

We can put this one away with our GOTV efforts.

[Maraya1969]

8. Tons of Kerry Stickers

I am always watching for bumper stickers and there has to be 4 Kerry ones to every Bush one I see. And I'm in a "Republican" County. Our Democratic Headquarters here is huge compared to the Republican one.


I really think that most Democratic Floridians remember how we were cheated 4 years ago and are really trying to not let that happen again. I also think that the poll of “likely voters” showing a dead heat for both candidates is good news for the Democrats. A lot of new voters are young college kids who I think tend to go Democratic.

I think I'm going to invite some people over next weekend and who Fahrenheit 9/11. That movie really gets a fire under people's butts! (Of course that is why the Repubs have made such an effort at telling everyone that it is a lie and not to see it - I think it would be very hard to see that movie and vote for Bush with any sort of conscience).

[iamjoy]

9. Hey...

Welcome to DU Maraya!
I hope you and your family came through Charley okay! We'll color Florida blue alright, and hopefully that isn't just the aerial view of our roofs!

[Auntie Bush]

14. Welcome to DU Maraya

:hi: :bounce:

[Maraya1969]

26. Thanks iamjoy and antibush! N/T

[deadparrot]

10. The incumbent's numbers in the polls

are virtually identical to what he will receive come election day (the gains are almost always >1%). The challenger picks up the rest. Barring a major third-party surge, things are looking all right.

Still, don't put it past Jebbie, and don't think for a minute that he won't be up on his dirty tricks. Hopefully we'll be around to catch him.

[DeadManInc]

11. Jeb

I can't believe they re-elected that dirtbag again after last time.

[BillZBubb]

15. That's what bothers me most about Florida.

They knew what a thieving sack of shit Jeb is but he still easily won re-election and is evidently still very popular.

They know what a lying sack of shit Shrubya is...

[bush equals idiot]

13. Hey bush

we want to borrow Marine 1. To try it out. It'll be ours shortly anyway. Ha ha hah ah ha.

[helpisontheway]

17. Zogby's poll shows the exact opposite. :-(

I know Zogby is only one poll but people have always said Zogby is the most accurate.

[fujiyama]

20. He was close in the populat vote - He was really off

on a state poll in CA showing Bush only 1 point behind Gore.

Gore won the state by 12 points.

The state will be razor thin until the end.

[harpo]

16. go protest where ever SNOW is down there

[Kathleen04]

18. It looks like a tossup

but I'm hoping that Kerry can pull ahead, even if its only by less than 1000 votes.

[montana500]

21. it's not a tossup

This isnt 2000 when there was no incumbent. a president has to poll concistently at 50
% or higher to win a BG state.

2/3 of undedicded go to the challenger when an there is an incumbent race. Any tie is a Bush loss.

[Kathleen04]

24. I don't know

By your first criteria, Bush isn't going to win ANY Battleground states, I'd LOVE to see that, but I'm not sure whether it will happen.

I hope you're right. :)