Election 2004: State of the Races

[OneBlueSky]

Washington Post online discussion with Charles Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report

Monday, October 11, 2004

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15752-2004Oct7.html

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Virtually all the polls you are seeing are using random digit dialing, not voter registeration rolls, so theoretically even newly registered voters are being polled. A far bigger problem is that as many as 18 percent of telephone subscribers today have no land lines, and since pollsters are not calling cell phones, almost one in five voters are not being included in poll samples.

Unrelated to your question, my advice to people is to not pay too much attention to any one poll, there is a temptation to cherry pick, to focus on the one or two polls that tell you what you want to see happen the most, and ignore all others as methodologically flawed. I would look at the averages of polls that are published in various places, an average of many polls is most likely to give you a truer picture than any one.

(snip)

A general rule of thumb that some people on both sides use is that whichever candidate wins two out of those three: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, will probably be the next president. While one can certainly construct other scenarios, it all probability, that will be true.

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There are various referenda out there that could affect turnout in states, single-sex marrage ones, one in Florida that would increase the state's minimum wage that Democrats hope will bring out lower income voters. My hunch is that this will be the highest voter turnout of any presidential race in at least 30 years and that the referenda impact will be negligible.

- more . . .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15752-2004Oct7.html