When will Kerry finally pull ahead (and the Fat Lady sing) in Rasmussen?

[TruthIsAll]

It seems Ras and Zog just won't let him. 
I expect it will be any day now. 
And then the fat lady will sing. 

Here are Rasmussen's numbers:
Date	Bush	Kerry	diff	Change Gainer
10/10	49.50	45.50	4.00	-	-  
10/11	49.00	45.40	3.60	-0.40	Kerry
10/12	47.40	45.80	1.60	-2.00	Kerry
10/13	47.60	46.20	1.40	-0.20	Kerry
10/14	48.10	45.90	2.20	0.80	Bush

10/15	49.00	45.50	3.50	1.30	Bush
10/16	48.30	46.20	2.10	-1.40	Kerry
10/17	48.50	46.40	2.10	0.00	Bush
10/18	47.50	47.30	0.20	-1.90	Kerry < closest, within .20
10/19	48.20	46.60	1.60	1.40	Bush

10/20	48.30	46.90	1.40	-0.20	Kerry
10/21	48.80	46.20	2.60	1.20	Bush
10/22	49.10	45.90	3.20	0.60	Bush 
10/23	48.00	46.70	1.30	-1.90	Kerry

[emulatorloo]

1. He'll pull ahead on Nov 2nd. . .EOM

[ogradda]

2. about 10pm november 2nd

eom.

[NDFan]

3. Looks good

A slow build.... we shall overtake them soon. They won't know what hit them. }(

[MikeG]

4. Rasmussen will never put Kerry ahead again. He's a Repig.

[David Dunham]

5. This race will stay close until the end.

[lancdem]

6. Before the election, Zogby will distribute the undecideds

to get his final number, so even if Kerry is a point of two behind, he'll be slightly ahead when the undecideds are added. Tracking polls tend to go up and down. A couple of days before the election, they tend to get more accurate.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Zogby's summary today wasn't great news

He wrote that Bush had a big polling day yesterday and the undecideds are down to 4%. Zogby wondered if the undecideds are breaking for Bush.

That makes no sense. Neither does some polls moving our way while Zogby trends toward Bush. If Bush had a big polling day yesterday, he may increase his Zogby lead in a day or two if a good Kerry day falls out.

I still can't figure out ARG. They haven't been heard from since October 4 with a national poll or Bush approval rating.

[DaveinMD]

14. that's why

tracking polls are deceiving. The daily sample is so small it can distort the data.

[Ediacara]

7. On 3 November :-)

Rasmussen will recalculate his data and say "oops." Although Rasmussen seems to always have them very close and within the MOE.

[DemoCrusader]

8. Kerry will do it!

He'll pull ahead when it counts.

[newyawker99]

10. Hi DemoCrusader!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[pa28]

9. Lead in Rasmussen = Kerry landslide n/t

[mikehiggins]

12. The fat lady is outside looking for her limo to Burger King

Its all over but the counting.

What has to happen now is we have to get our votes to the polling stations.

Statistics and all that crap are irrelevent now. Does anyone really think there are "8%" of likely voters still undetermined? I thing everyone who is going to vote already knows who he or she is going to vote for.

All that remains to us is GOTV, making sure the greatest possible number of Dems get to the polling place.

Do that and its all over.

[The Chronicler]

13. I highly doubt Kerry will ever really "pull ahead" in these polls.

The real thing to look for is how much under 50% Bush is polling. If he's under 49% on election day, he's done; regardless of what Kerry's polling at ie 46,47 etc.